Waiver Wire Analysis: Week 10

In Week 9, NFL fans were wowed by the Joshua Dobbs miracle, while fantasy analysts everywhere celebrated Arthur Smith’s demise at the hands of a quarterback who barely knew the playbook. Heading into Week 10, Dobbs is one of several intriguing waiver options that have underrated upside as we approach the fantasy playoffs. Let’s dive in.

As a reminder, here are explanations for each section of the article. Read the descriptions below to determine whether “Home-League Waiver Targets” or “Deeper-League Targets” is more relevant for your particular league:

• Home-League Waiver Targets: This section focuses on the typical “home league” with friends, family members, and co-workers. These leagues typically include starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1-2 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST, and 5-7 BENCH spots. I will use ESPN & Yahoo rostership percentages to gauge which players are available in a typical league. To qualify as a waiver target, the player must be rostered in <30% of leagues on either Yahoo or ESPN.
• Deeper-League Targets: This section will be focused on deeper leagues, which typically have additional starting lineup slots and deeper benches compared to the typical home league. Drafters who play in tournament contests on FFPC, NFFC, or similar should find this section helpful. To qualify as a deeper-league target, the player must be rostered in <50% of FFPC Main Event leagues.

Additionally, FAAB recommended bid percentages are given. These should generally be interpreted as a % of your original FAAB budget, not your current FAAB budget, though obviously keep in mind team- and league-specific considerations when making your bids.

For each list, I will rank the players in order based on how I would prioritize adding them to your teams. I will also include a “Drop List” of commonly rostered players that I would be comfortable parting ways with in order to add these targets to your team.

Top 10 Home-League Waiver Targets

Before getting into this week’s top targets, let me first call out a handful of players that are hovering in the 30-50% ownership range on ESPN/Yahoo. These players miss my thresholds to be included in this article, but they should be prioritized if available. They are, roughly, in order of how I would rank them:

• Zach Charbonnet
• Devin Singletary
• Taysom Hill
• Trey McBride
• Tyjae Spears
• Quentin Johnston
• Rashid Shaheed

Keaton Mitchell

Rostership: 4% Yahoo, 1% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 15-30%

For fantasy managers asking the question, “What would De’Von Achane look like on the Ravens?”, rookie UDFA Keaton Mitchell may provide the closest thing to an answer. The prolific college producer and analytics cult hero burst onto the scene in Week 9, exploding for 138 yards and a touchdown on nine carries. Following the game, head coach John Harbaugh emphasized that there would be a rotation at RB, suggesting Mitchell’s involvement is here to stay. The key question, however, is whether Mitchell can force a fantasy-relevant role in Baltimore’s offense, or if he will be a frustratingly volatile change-of-pace back in a Ravens RB room that also features Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. On a bearish note, Mitchell’s role in Week 9 was relatively minor on a touch and snap share basis. Before fourth-quarter garbage time, Mitchell handled just seven of 19 (37%) RB carries and 12 of 57 snaps (21%).

The realistic upside case for Mitchell involves him overtaking Hill for a juiced-up change-of-pace and pass-catching role, which could result in ~6-10 carries and 3-4 targets per game. Hill has shown middling efficiency and also played deep into garbage time in Week 9, suggesting it’s possible the Ravens may relegate him further. At Mitchell’s diminutive size (179 pounds), overtaking Edwards’ (238 pounds) goal-line role is a pipe dream, barring injury. That said, any RB that rushes for more than 100 yards on less than 10 touches is a talent worth adding. It is plausible that Mitchell could earn a large enough role to enter the RB2 conversation by season’s end if the Ravens phase out Hill. This makes Mitchell worthy of a hefty FAAB bid given there will not be many more chances to add upside RBs through the rest of the fantasy season.

Demario Douglas