Waiver Wire Analysis: Week 14 | Establish The Run

Congratulations if your fantasy team is still alive at this point in the season. The Preparing for the Playoffs extension will run for the last time this season on Wednesday. The amount of FAAB to spend on a player or how high of a waiver priority to use is always dependent on your specific team and league. That’s why I offer my contact information on Twitter @RyanReynNJ or via email at [email protected] for those that are debating a bid or waiver claim.

Week 14 Waiver Wire

Quarterback
Note: If Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, or Sam Darnold are available in your league, each of them is in a plus matchup and would top this week’s list of streaming options.

Ryan Tannehill – 10% FAAB Budget
Ryan Fitzpatrick – 10%
Daniel Jones – 6%
Gardner Minshew – 5%
Kyle Allen – 5%
Jacoby Brissett – 5% (Elevate of T.Y. Hilton is ready to go)
Matthew Stafford – 2% (If Stafford returns for Week 15, he hosts Tampa Bay)

Running Back
Note: If Rashaad Penny or Derrius Guice are still available in your league, both running backs have been given significant playing time in each of their past two games and would be in the mix among the top 3 options on this list.

Alexander Mattison – 40% FAAB Budget
Darwin Thompson – 40%
Raheem Mostert – 30%
Bo Scarbrough – 20%
Adrian Peterson – 15%
Benny Snell Jr. – 15%
Patrick Laird – 15%
Jaylen Samuels – 15%
Jordan Wilkins – 10%
Peyton Barber – 10%
Nyheim Hines – 5%
Tony Pollard – 5%
Myles Gaskin – 1%

Wide Receiver
Note: If Sterling Shepard or Robby Anderson are available in your league, they would top this list.

Darius Slayton – 15% FAAB Budget
Anthony Miller – 10%
John Ross – 10%
AJ Brown – 10%
Zach Pascal – 10%
James Washington – 8%
Allen Lazard – 6%
Cole Beasley – 6%
Corey Davis – 5%
Jakobi Meyers – 5%
Nelson Agholor – 5%
Auden Tate – 5%
Russell Gage – 5%
Parris Campbell – 3%
Marcus Johnson – 2%
Albert Wilson – 1%

Tight End

Vance McDonald – 10% FAAB Budget
Ian Thomas – 8%
Mike Gesicki – 8%
Tyler Higbee – 6%
O.J. Howard – 5%
Noah Fant – 5%
Jonnu Smith – 5%
Kaden Smith – 5%

Defense

Packers – 10% FAAB Budget
Texans – 2%
Cowboys – 2%
Falcons – 2%

Kicker

Younghoe Koo – 1% FAAB Budget
Matt Gay – 1%

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans, 10% FAAB Budget: Tannehill’s surging Titans are 3-point road favorites, with an implied team total of 25 ¼ points, against a Raiders defense that has yielded the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2019. Tannehill has been shockingly efficient in his six starts this season, while being a legitimate fantasy asset that has scored multiple touchdowns in each of those outings. The downside for Tannehill in this appealing matchup is related to volume. The Raiders lost to the Jets on the road in Week 12 by 31-points and then fell to the Chiefs at home last week by that same margin. Should the Titans, coming off two blowout wins of their own, pull ahead in convincing fashion against a currently reeling Raiders team, Tannehill’s passing volume could see a significant reduction in favor of Derrick Henry’s annual rampage through December. If you’re considering Tannehill, the Titans also have an attractive matchup next week at home versus the Texans.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Dolphins, 10%: Most quarterback streamers likely have to make a decision between Ryan Tannehill and Fitzpatrick this week. The case for playing Tannehill is built off a higher team total (Titans 25 ¼ to the Dolphins 19) and a higher, more reliable floor. The case for Fitzpatrick is built on ceiling, volume, and that the Dolphins haven’t been able to effectively run the ball all year. Fitzpatrick is also coming off a 365 yard and 3 touchdown spike game against the Eagles. Fitzpatrick has thrown between 33 and 45 passes in each of his last 6 starts. Tannehill has only exceeded 30 passing attempts twice over his last 6 starts. In Week 14, Fitzpatrick visits the Jets as a 6-point road underdog. Back in Week 9, Fitzpatrick posted 288 yards passing and 3 touchdowns against the Jets. Consider Fitzpatrick a volatile option at quarterback due to his supporting cast with high-ceiling matchups in each of the next 3 weeks.

Daniel Jones, QB, Giants, 6%: Since Ryan Fitzpatrick just torched the Eagles for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns, there is legitimate upside for Jones as the Giants head to Philadelphia as an 8-point road underdog for Monday Night Football. That upside comes with a very volatile floor, as the Eagles pass rush could potentially derail this game against the turnover-prone Jones that is playing behind a struggling Giants offensive line. Jones has a phenomenal matchup in Week 15 versus Miami and another strong opportunity in Week 16 in Washington.

Gardner Minshew, QB, Jaguars, 5%: Now that Nick Foles has been benched, the Jaguars have turned back to the mustached marvel Minshew. Minshew should be avoided in Week 14 versus the Chargers, but he has very appealing matchups in Week 15 at Oakland and Week 16 at Atlanta that will be further detailed in the Preparing for the Playoffs release.

Kyle Allen, QB Panthers, 5%: Allen was intercepted four times when the Falcons blew out the Panthers in Week 11. Since that disappointing outing 3 weeks ago, Allen has posted 23.14 and then 25.32 Draft Kings points over the past two weeks. Consider Allen a volatile option at quarterback with an appealing Week 14 matchup with the Falcons.

Jacoby Brissett, QB, Colts, 5%: The Colts are 2 ½ point road underdogs with an implied team total of 22 ½ when they visit the Buccaneers in Week 14. The Colts passing offense has been struggling in recent weeks, as Indianapolis is starting to slide out of the Wild Card race. The Colts will be without tight end Eric Ebron and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton’s status remains in doubt heading into Week 14’s matchup against a Buccaneers pass defense that has been shredded throughout the season. With that said, Tampa has played some of its best pass defense of the season over the past two weeks against Atlanta and the Jaguars. If Hilton is able to return, this matchup still has some upside for Brissett, but it comes with a volatile floor given the Colts offensive struggles over the last several weeks.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions, 2%: The Lions have still not shut the door on Stafford returning this year. In Week 15 the Lions host the Buccaneers in what would be a massive ceiling matchup for Stafford if he was able to return.

Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings, 40% FAAB Budget: Vikings running back Dalvin Cook left during the third quarter of Monday Night Football in Seattle with a shoulder injury and did not return. In Cook’s absence, Mattison saw all of the Vikings running back touches against the Seahawks. After the game, Cooks was quoted as saying that he will definitely be ready for next week’s matchup against the Lions and the team held him out for the rest of the contest for precautionary reasons. Going forward, Mattison has been a premium handcuff all season while being productive throughout the year in his secondary role behind Cook. Given this late point in the season, if Mattison is available on your waiver wire he would warrant aggressive pursuit even though it appears that Cook could be ready to play in Week 14. In the event that Cook is held out of Week 14’s matchup with Detroit or has another injury setback during that contest, Mattison would become a max FAAB bid fantasy asset that you could plug-and-play in Cook’s absence. Even if Cook is fine, it’s logical to move on Mattison now as he has the ability to be a difference making asset if Cook were to miss any time.

Darwin Thompson, RB, Chiefs, 40%: There is now a legitimate path to Thompson becoming fantasy relevant down the stretch due to the injury uncertainties of both Damien Williams and Darrel Williams heading into Week 14’s matchup with the Patriots. In recent weeks, LeSean McCoy has been referred to as “not getting any younger” by head coach Andy Reid on numerous occasions and he was a healthy scratch in Week 10 for the purpose of load management. McCoy’s usage has been sporadic all year and he has only logged 10 or more Draft Kings points 5 times this season. While those conditions do not suddenly thrust Thompson into a difference-making role, he did receive 11 productive carries in Darrel Williams absence towards the end of the Chiefs blowout victory over the Raiders. What’s particularly interesting for Thompson in this matchup with the Patriots is that both Kareem Hunt and Damien Williams had big games as pass catchers against New England last year. If Damien Williams can’t go in this contest, it’s possible that Thompson could fill that role as a pass catching asset out of the backfield.

Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers, 30%: Both Kyle and his father Mike Shanahan have a well-earned reputation of being able to get considerable production out of the running game regardless of who the ball carrier is. Preseason stud Mostert can legitimately play and he blew up against the Ravens for 146 yards and a score on 19 carries while catching both of his targets for 8 yards. More importantly, Mostert out-touched Tevin Coleman 21-to-6 on the afternoon while Matt Breida remained sidelined with injury (ankle). This massive usage spike does not necessarily mean that Mostert is the new head of the 49ers backfield, as San Francisco has been deploying some form of running back committee all season. However, it’s entirely possible that Mostert has earned a more prominent role in the 49ers offense, particularly while Breida remains inactive.

Bo Scarbrough, RB, Lions, 20%: We don’t have to get too creative when framing Scarbrough’s value. Over the last 3 games Scarbrough has 53 carries for 236 yards and a score, while only receiving 1 uncaught target. Scarbrough has more value in standard scoring formats due to his lack of passing game usage, but his fantasy potential is largely touchdown dependent regardless of format.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington, 15%: The Redskins ran all over the Panthers in Week 13, as Derrius Guice ran for 129 yards and 2 scores on 10 carries while Peterson added 99 yards and a score on 13 carries. The Redskins are operating in a timeshare between Peterson, Guice, and the newly returning Christian Thompson. While Peterson’s role may reduce down the stretch as Guice starts to get in game shape, the Redskins have an average matchup this week in Green Bay, a poor one in Week 15 versus the Eagles, and an appealing matchup with the Giants in Week 16.

Benny Snell Jr., RB, Steelers, 15%: In James Conner’s absence, Snell has 161 yards and a score on 37 carries over the past two games, while having a minimal role in the passing game. If Conner remains sidelined, Snell has leapfrogged Jaylen Samuels in overall workload while Samuels has retained a larger role in the passing game. If and when Conner returns, Snell would likely be reduced to a reserve role once again.
Patrick Laird, RB, Dolphins, 15%: Dolphins running back Kalen Ballage was carted off the field in Week 13 with a non-contact leg injury. In general, the Dolphins have been unable to run the ball all season, regardless of which running back has received the bulk of the carries. That said, Ballage’s injury opens the door for Laird, who is a Jalen Richard type of pass catching asset that could now bring some more consistent value in PPR formats with deep benches. For what it’s worth, Laird is a significantly greater asset as a pass catcher than Ballage ever was.
Jaylen Samuels, RB, Steelers, 15%: Over the past two games in James Conner’s absence, Benny Snell Jr. has surpassed Samuels in the running game for the Steelers. Samuels still has a larger role in the passing game, and he has had a few unexpected usage spikes throughout the season even when Conner is active. However, with Snell’s expanded role, Samuels has become more of an unreliable fantasy asset in recent weeks due to his sporadic usage.
Jordan Wilkins, RB, Colts, 10%: After playing no meaningful role in Week 12’s tilt with the Texans, Wilkins lead the Colts backfield in carries (14) and was second in snaps (30) in Week 13 against the Titans. If Marlon Mack’s status is unclear heading into Week 14 against the Buccaneers, Wilkins could now be ahead of Jonathan Williams in a muddy Colts backfield.
Peyton Barber, RB, Buccaneers, 10%: At this point in the season it’s likely best to steer clear of the Buccaneers sporadic and downright ugly backfield deployments whenever possible. With that said, Barber saw a workload spike last week against the Jaguars rushing for 44 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries. That usage spike could make Barber worth picking up in deeper leagues.

Nyheim Hines, RB, Colts, 5%: Hines (31 offensive snaps) just edged out Jordan Wilkins (30 offensive snaps) for the lead in playing time among Colts running backs in Week 13. While Hines had a rushing touchdown, he only had 4 carries and 2 targets on the day against Tennessee. Hines usage has been underwhelming all season, but he could be worth rostering in deeper leagues if Marlon Mack continues to sit, since Frank Reich appears to be rolling with the hot hand at the position in Mack’s absence.

Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys, 5%: Pollard remains Ezekiel Elliot’s handcuff, which means that Pollard would be a max FAAB bid fantasy asset if Zeke were to miss any time.

Myles Gaskin, RB, Dolphins, 1%: Kallen Ballage’s leg injury likely opens the door for Patrick Laird to see a jump in usage. But it could also lead to more playing time for Gaskins, who had 2 carries for 20 yards while hauling in his only target for 6 yards on 14 offensive snaps against the Eagles in Week 13.

Wide Receiver
Note: If Sterling Shepard or Robby Anderson are available in your league, they would top this list.

Darius Slayton, WR, Giants, 15% FAAB Budget: Slayton’s value this coming Monday Night when the Giants take on the Eagles will be dependent on the status of wide receiver Golden Tate and tight end Evan Engram. Regardless, the Eagles have struggled with deep speed at various points this season and that’s what Slayton brings to the table. Slayton has led the Giants in targets in several games this season, including last week against Green Bay where he had 9. If Tate and/ or Engram miss the contest, which would narrow the targets in favor of Slayton and Sterling Shepard, Slayton has a strong matchup against the Eagles this week followed by a home game versus Miami in Week 15 and a visit to Washington in Week 16.
Anthony Miller, WR, Bears, 10%: Over the past 3 weeks, Miller has 21 catches on 33 targets for 271 yards receiving, which accounts for over half his production on the entire year. With Miller seeing consistently high usage heading into Week 14’s Thursday matchup with the Cowboys, who were just chewed up in the slot by Cole Beasley, Miller has another opportunity to exceed expectations this week against the Cowboys.
John Ross, WR, Bengals, 10%: Ross is slated to return in Week 14 against the Jets, which would insert him back into fantasy relevance now that Andy Dalton is the Bengals starter once again. The speedster Ross was 11^th in the NFL in receiving yards the first month of the season with Dalton at the helm, which bodes well for his prospects against Cleveland this week and Miami in Week 16.
AJ Brown, WR, Titans, 10%: Brown and fellow wide receiver Corey Davis essentially have the same opportunity, in the same offense, over the 2019 season to date. However, Brown has been considerably more productive than Davis to this point, giving Brown the current nod over Davis for fantasy purposes. The Titans head to Oakland for an appealing matchup in Week 14, before hosting the Texans in another appealing matchup in Week 15.
Zach Pascal, WR, Colts, 10%: The Colts pass catching corps has been decimated by injuries, which has been a boon to both Pascal’s usage and production in recent weeks. With an appealing Week 14 matchup with the Buccaneers on deck, Pascal is worth consideration in deeper leagues or as a volatile flex option even if Y. Hilton is able to return from injury.
James Washington, WR, Steelers, 8%: The power of the bond fostered through duck hunting with one’s quarterback aside, Washington has been on a strong run over his past 5 games. Over that span, Washington has eclipsed 90 yards receiving with a touchdown in 3 of those 5 contests. The Steelers quarterback situation makes the prospect of playing any of their pass catchers a volatile one, a decision I would personally avoid whenever possible, but Washington has been cashing in on his talent for over a month now.
Allen Lazard, WR, Packers, 6%: Lazard and the Packers have another excellent matchup in Week 14 against the Redskins. However, Lazard only has 5 total targets over the past 2 games, despite posting a flashy 3-103-1 line against the Giants nonexistent pass defense last week. So, while Lazard has a great matchup as a massive home favorite with Week 14’s highest implied team total of 28, his volume has become more sporadic in recent weeks which reduces his current playability. That said, he still warrants rostering in leagues with deep benches.
Cole Beasley, WR, Bills, 6%: Beasley has been a stable, high-floor PPR asset all season. He’s coming off his highest output of 2019 as he was able to exact revenge against Dallas on a 6-110-1 box score last Thursday. Beasley’s Week 12 line of 6-76-1 was his previous high fantasy score on the season. While Buffalo has a tough matchup with the Ravens in Week 14, Beasley has been a more valuable fantasy asset than many might have expected this season.

Corey Davis, WR, Titans, 5%: When compared to teammate J. Brown, Davis has been underperforming his opportunity as the co-primary receiver in the Titans passing game. Davis has appealing matchups against vulnerable pass defenses in each of the next two weeks, first in Oakland in Week 14 and then at home against the Texans in Week 15. He has a legitimate chance to pop off in either of those matchups.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Patriots, 5%: The preseason standout Meyers more than doubled the snap totals of both Mohamed Sanu and fellow rookie wide receiver N’Keal Harry in Week 13 in Houston. Meyers was also third on the team in targets with 7 during the Patriots failed comeback attempt against the Texans. While Sanu could leapfrog Meyers if the formers injury status improves heading into Week 14’s contest with the Chiefs, that mouth-watering matchup with Kansas City should at least put Meyers on the radar in deep leagues this coming week.

Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles, 5%: Agholor hasn’t been lighting up the box score this season, but he has a total of 23 targets over the past 3 games, giving him a currently stable role in the Eagles offense. Agholor comes with greater than normal upside this week as the Eagles head into a matchup against the liability known as the Giants pass defense for Week 14’s installment of Monday Night Football.

Auden Tate, WR, Bengals, 5%: Andy Dalton’s return increases the viability of all Bengals pass catchers, including Tate who caught 4-of-7 targets for 66 yards against the Jets last week. Tate has a solid matchup in Cleveland this week, with a potential fantastic matchup in Week 16 when the Bengals head to Miami.

Russell Gage, WR, Falcons, 5%: Gage has done an excellent job of filling the void left by the Mohamed Sanu trade, as he’s coming off a 5-52-1 line on 9 targets against the Saints. Gage is a potential superflex option in deep leagues.

Parris Campbell, WR, Colts, 3%: Campbell has not played since November 3^rd against Pittsburgh, so his status is still unclear heading into Week 14’s appealing matchup with the Buccaneers. Should Campbell be active for that game, particularly if T.Y. Hilton is not, Campbell could be worth rostering in leagues with deep benches.
Marcus Johnson, WR, Colts, 2%: The Colts pass catching group has been devastated by injuries, giving Johnson a path to significant playing time in Week 14 in an extremely appealing matchup against the Buccaneers. In Week 13, Johnson caught 4-of-6 targets for 55 yards while logging 65-of-70 offensives snaps. Should T.Y. Hilton and/ or Parris Campbell miss Week 14 due to injury, Johnson could warrant consideration as a superflex option in deep leagues.
Albert Wilson, WR, Dolphins, 1%: Very quietly, Wilson has 5 or more targets in each of the last 3 games. Given the Dolphins stretch of appealing matchups at the Jets this week, at the Giants in Week 15, and at home versus the Bengals in Week 16, Wilson has a legitimate chance to pop off in one of those games. That potential upside makes him worthy of roster consideration in superflex leagues with deep benches.

Tight End

Vance McDonald, TE, Steelers, 10% FAAB Budget: The Steelers face the Cardinals in Week 14, who have been butchered by tight ends throughout the season. The Steelers abysmal quarterback situation gives all of their pass catchers a floor of zero. But, if you’re interested in betting on upside, McDonald could be your guy this week.
Ian Thomas, TE, Panthers, 8%: Panthers tight end Greg Olsen did not return in Week 13 after taking a major shot to the head that appeared to knock him out, putting his future status in doubt. Thomas showed throughout last year that he can be an asset in Olsen’s absence. Over the last 5 games of the 2018 season, Thomas caught 25 passes for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns, which was good for an average of 12.32 PPR points over that span. If Olsen should miss Week 14’s clash with the Falcons, Thomas would be a strong streaming option in that appealing matchup. If Olsen should be shut down for the rest of the season, Thomas has the potential to be a TE1 down the stretch.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins, 8%: Since Preston Williams suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Jets on November 3^rd, Gesicki has had 6 or 7 targets in each of the Dolphins last 5 games. He’s had 10 or more PPR points in 3 of those 5 contests, while going over 15 PPR points twice. The Dolphins have appealing matchups in each of the next 3 weeks, as they head to the Jets this week, then to the Giants in Week 15, before hosting the Bengals in Week 16.
Tyler Higbee, TE, Rams, 6%: Higbee is the most recent tight end to benefit from facing the Cardinals, as he went off for 26.7 Draft Kings points last week against Arizona. While we should definitely not expect that type of production when the Rams host Seattle next Sunday Night, Higbee could be in store for another spike in usage and playing time if Gerald Everett ends up missing the contest.
O.J. Howard, TE, Buccaneers, 5%: Howard may genuinely be 2019’s most disappointing fantasy performer. But he is among the most talented players at the position in the league and he’s coming off a 5-61 line on 6 targets. Depending on your situation, and your tolerance for risk, Howard could still warrant consideration when the Buccaneers take on the fading Colts in Week 14.
Noah Fant, TE, Broncos, 5%: It could be the difficult matchup against the Chargers, or it could be the shift to Drew Lock at quarterback, but Fant’s 3 targets are his fewest since the middle of October. With that said, the Broncos have back-to-back appealing matchups as they go to Houston in Week 14 and then to Kansas City in Week 15.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Titans, 5%: The Titans Week 14 matchup with the Raiders makes Smith a very low floor, but high-upside option at the tight end position this week.
Kaden Smith, TE, Giants, 5%: In Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison’s absence, Smith’s role has been massive, totaling 11 catches on 14 targets for 87 yards and a score over the last two games, while logging 94% of the Giants offense snaps over that span. If Ellison and especially Engram remain out, Smith’s role could be potentially valuable.

Defense

Packers Defense vs Redskins, 10% FAAB Budget: This game has a number of positive factors for the Packers defense. First is that Dwayne Haskins’ Redskins struggle to throw the football effectively. Second is that the Washington offensive line has been mediocre throughout this season. Third is that Aaron Rodgers Packers are 13 ½ point home favorites, which means that it’s very likely that the Redskins will be forced to play from behind, which would force Washington to do what they haven’t been doing well: throw. The final factor is that the Redskins have been one of the worst teams in football this season, and they are coming off a game where they “shocked” the Panthers on the road. Volatile offenses, with rookie quarterbacks don’t often string together back-to-back performances where they exceed expectations. Often times, they crash and burn the game after they exceed expectations. Ultimately, there are multiple paths for the Packers to create sack and turnover opportunities in this matchup. The Packers have another appealing matchup in Week 15 when they host the Bears.
Texans Defense vs Broncos, 2%: The Texans are coming off a mild upset win over the Patriots, where they are now 9-point home favorites over Drew Lock’s To their credit, Denver had an excellent offensive game plan against a capable Chargers defense in Lock’s starting debut, as they limited his chances of making a catastrophic mistake through scheming. With that said, betting against a volatile rookie quarterback in his first road start is the type of decision that can pay very predictable dividends.

Cowboys Defense at Bears, 2%: The Dallas defense has truly underperformed this season, which makes this more of a play against Mitch Trubisky than anything else. Unless you can get Green Bay or you already grabbed the Eagles, the streaming options get thin enough where you may have to consider Dallas on Thursday Night Football in many leagues.

Falcons Defense vs Panthers, 2%: Back in Week 11, the Falcons defense posted 26 Draft Kings points against Kyle Allen’s Panthers on 6 sacks, 4 interceptions, a defensive touchdown, all while only giving up 3 points. We should not expect that kind of outcome again, but betting against Allen on the road is a solid decision in a week where you could have to pick one out of a few thin streaming options.

Kicker

Younghoe Koo, K, Falcons, 1% FAAB Budget: The Falcons vs Panthers has the second highest game total (48) of the full Week 14 slate. This contest being played indoors removes the possibility of weather negatively impacting the kicking game as well.

Matt Gay, K, Buccaneers, 1%: The Buccaneers and the Colts currently has Week 14’s third highest game total (47 ½). While weather will have to be monitored before deploying Gay this week, Gay had made 8 kicks of over 40 yards and 4 of over 50 yards on the season to date, giving him an additional path to upside.

Ryan Reynolds has privately analyzed football for investing and betting purposes for nearly two decades. Ryan began forecasting by using sports cards as a method of investing in individual baseball and football players, a practice he still takes part in today. Ryan plays DFS, high-volume best ball, and season-long fantasy while directly betting on props, totals, and point spreads that meet his conditions. Ryan has watched every snap, of every NFL game since 2014.