Waiver Wire Analysis: Week 3

Week 2 was one of the best waiver wire weeks in recent memory. Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua surpassed even my highest expectations, and they now project as top-24 options at their respective positions for the rest of the season. That goes to show the importance of being aggressive when potential studs emerge on waivers.

I won’t claim the Week 3 waiver wire options are as attractive as Week 2’s studs, but it’s close. With major injuries to star RBs Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley, there are opportunities for savvy managers to add immediate starters off the wire. In addition, I’ve pored through the rest of the relevant injury news and usage and efficiency data to help you dominate the waiver wire in Week 3. Whether you play in a casual home league with your high school buddies or are competing for $1,000,000 in FFPC’s Main Event, I have actionable insights to share. Let’s dive in.

As a reminder, here are explanations for each section of the article. Read the descriptions below to determine whether “Home-League Waiver Targets” or “Deeper-League Targets” is more relevant for your particular league:

• Home-League Waiver Targets: This section focuses on the typical “home league” with friends, family members, and co-workers. These leagues typically include starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1-2 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST, and 5-7 BENCH spots. I will use ESPN & Yahoo rostership percentages to gauge which players are available in a typical league. To qualify as a waiver target, the player must be rostered in <40% of leagues on either Yahoo or ESPN.
• Deeper-League Targets: This section will be focused on deeper leagues, which typically have additional starting lineup slots and deeper benches compared to the typical home league. Drafters who play in tournament contests on FFPC, NFFC, or similar should find this section helpful. To qualify as a deeper-league target, the player must be rostered in <50% of leagues on FFPC Main Event leagues.

For each list, I will rank the players in order based on how I would prioritize adding them to your teams. I will also include a “drop list” of commonly rostered players that I would be comfortable parting ways with in order to add these targets to your team.

Top 10 Home-League Waiver Targets

Jerome Ford

Rostership: 12% Yahoo, 9% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 60-90%

Football sucks sometimes. Nick Chubb, undeniably one the most electric players in the NFL, is all but guaranteed to miss the rest of the season after suffering a gruesome lower-body injury on Monday Night Football. Jerome Ford, a sparingly used second-year back out of Alabama, is in line to receive the bulk of the work going forward in Cleveland, with Pierre Strong Jr. set to serve in a complementary role. We can feel fairly confident Ford will have the first crack at a lead-back role. He was the only other RB to play in Week 1 (40% snaps played, 15 carries for 36 yards), and he played the most snaps in Week 2 after the Chubb injury (43 for Ford, 13 for Strong). Whether he’s talented enough to hold off competition from Strong or potential free agents (Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette) remains to be seen, but his opportunity and apparent trust from the Browns’ organization is ultimately worth betting on. I’m comfortable taking a risk with ~60-90% of my FAAB on Ford, who immediately projects in the RB2 range with weekly RB1 upside. Finding a clear-cut handcuff off the wire set to take on a starting role for the rest of the season is a rare occurrence in fantasy football. If you have the FAAB and could use an RB, be ready to capitalize.

Justice Hill

Rostership: 44% Yahoo, 30% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 20-30%

We covered last week why Justice Hill was my preferred Ravens RB add off the wire. That largely came to fruition in Week 2, as Hill doubled up Edwards in expected RB fantasy points, largely due to Hill’s edge over Edwards in routes run (23 to 11), targets (3 to 0), carries (11 to 10), and goal-line carries (3 to 1). At least in the short term, I expect this to remain close to a 60:40 split in touches in favor of Hill, who will earn the passing-down work and some share of the goal-line attempts. My FAAB recommendation from last week remains unchanged — I’m prioritizing Hill on the wire where he’s still available.

Zack Moss