Waiver Wire Analysis: Week 7

 

Dominating the Week 7 waiver wire requires careful tea-leaf reading of several impact injuries to top-10 fantasy RBs: Christian McCaffrey, David Montgomery, and Kyren Williams. Week 6 also saw a handful of promising young WRs flash signals of potential second-half breakouts. This week’s article will cover all of these situations and more in-depth. Let’s dive in.

As a reminder, here are explanations for each section of the article. Read the descriptions below to determine whether “Home-League Waiver Targets” or “Deeper-League Targets” is more relevant for your particular league:

• Home-League Waiver Targets: This section focuses on the typical “home league” with friends, family members, and co-workers. These leagues typically include starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1-2 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST, and 5-7 BENCH spots. I will use ESPN & Yahoo rostership percentages to gauge which players are available in a typical league. To qualify as a waiver target, the player must be rostered in <40% of leagues on either Yahoo or ESPN.
• Deeper-League Targets: This section will be focused on deeper leagues, which typically have additional starting lineup slots and deeper benches compared to the typical home league. Drafters who play in tournament contests on FFPC, NFFC, or similar should find this section helpful. To qualify as a deeper-league target, the player must be rostered in <50% of FFPC Main Event leagues.

Additionally, FAAB recommended bid percentages are given. These should generally be interpreted as a % of your original FAAB budget, not your current FAAB budget, though obviously keep in mind team- and league-specific considerations when making your bids.

For each list, I will rank the players in order based on how I would prioritize adding them to your teams. I will also include a “Drop List” of commonly rostered players that I would be comfortable parting ways with in order to add these targets to your team.

 

Injury Situations: 49ers, Lions, Rams RBs

Before diving into this week’s top 10 targets, let us first cover what we know about the injury situations on three key backfields heading into Week 7. For each player, I will include my baseline assumption about how many games they will miss based on current information. 

 

Detroit Lions: David Montgomery & Jahmyr Gibbs

• • Montgomery will miss a ‘bit’ of time with a rib cartilage injury, according to head coach Dan Campbell.
  • Gibbs is trending in the right direction to play in Week 7, according to head coach Dan Campbell.
  • Baseline assumption: Montgomery – OUT 1-2 games (Week 9 bye offers a natural return in Week 10); Gibbs – Will play in Week 7.

San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey

• • At the moment, we lack concrete news on CMC’s injury. What we do know is that it’s been reported as an oblique injury. The ‘Twitter docs’ are speculating anything from 0-6 games missed depending on severity.
  • As of now, I’ll assume “no news = good news” and that CMC’s injury is relatively minor, though this is a situation I’m closely monitoring.
  • Baseline assumption: McCaffrey – OUT 0-2 games.

Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams & Ronnie Rivers

• • Kyren Williams reportedly suffered a minor ankle injury that should force him out of Week 7, but the injury is not considered a long-term injury, according to Adam Schefter.
  • Ronnie Rivers suffered a more serious Grade 3 PCL sprain and will miss 4-5 weeks, according to Ian Rapoport.
  • Baseline assumption: Williams – OUT 1-3 games; Rivers – OUT 4-5 games, will be moved to I.R.

Top 10 Home-League Waiver Targets

 

 

Zach Evans

Rostership: 1% Yahoo, 0% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 15-20%

With Kyren Williams (ankle) very likely out for at least one game and Ronnie Rivers (PCL sprain) also sidelined, Zach Evans is the last man standing for the Rams. Evans was once a highly regarded prospect as a five-star recruit and the No. 1-ranked player in the state of Texas. Despite his pedigree and above-average NFL athleticism, the Ole Miss star slipped all the way to the sixth round of the NFL Draft. How Evans’ game will translate to the NFL remains a huge question mark, but he has a massive opportunity in front of him with Royce Freeman (practice squad) as the only other healthy RB on the Rams’ roster to compete for touches. While I expect the Rams to explore free-agent options at the position, Evans’ current standing on the depth chart should afford him the opportunity to lead the Rams’ backfield in Week 7. I tentatively expect a 60:40 backfield split, with Evans leading the way and Freeman mixing in. Additionally, there remains the small possibility that Evans’ success in a spot start could earn him a larger committee role even when Kyren Williams returns. Fantasy managers who could immediately use Evans’ points in Week 7 can justify a considerable FAAB bid on the exciting unproven rookie.

 

Elijah Mitchell & Jordan Mason

Rostership (Mitchell): 28% Yahoo, 26% ESPN
Rostership (Mason): 6% Yahoo, 1% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation (Mitchell): 10-15%
FAAB Recommendation (Mason): 8-12%

We currently don’t know Christian McCaffrey’s injury status. Assuming there’s a decent chance he misses at least one game, fantasy managers scouring the waiver wire for his backup will have to decide between two different RBs, each of whom has a case to be the projected starter for San Francisco in Week 7: Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason.

The case for Mason is relatively straightforward. In Week 6, he saw about twice as much usage compared to Mitchell, leading in snaps (15 vs. 7), routes (9 vs. 5), and carries (5 vs. 2). He also was relatively efficient on his touches, rushing five times for 27 yards including an 8-yard TD scamper.

The case for Mitchell is also quite credible. We have a much longer history of Kyle Shanahan preferring Mitchell to Mason as the RB2 to McCaffrey. In games (excluding Week 18 of 2022) in which both RBs played, Mitchell has out-snapped and out-carried Mason in three out of four games, the lone exception being last week. We also have an even bigger sample of Shanahan trusting Mitchell in a feature role. During his breakout rookie campaign in 2021, Mitchell averaged a 65% rush share and 8% target share across 12 games played. Mason has yet to eclipse those figures a single time across his entire career. Mitchell also has an alibi for his Week 6 relegation: He was recovering from a knee injury and failed to practice in full a single time leading up to Sunday’s game.

For the Mason vs. Mitchell decision, I am taking the long view that Mitchell’s longer track record of fantasy success means more than a one-week sample in which Mason played ahead of him. I view that one-week sample as noise due to Mitchell being brought along slowly from his knee injury. This quote from Kyle Shanahan also suggests he views Mitchell as the starter over Mason if healthy. Assuming Mitchell practices in full this week, I expect him to reclaim his RB2 status on the depth chart ahead of Jordan Mason, making him worthy of the higher priority claim off the waiver wire in Week 7. That said, this situation is highly uncertain and I don’t pretend to be an all-knowing seer of Shanahan backfields. Therefore, Mason is well worth a claim in his own right as a potential starter in a fantasy-friendly San Francisco backfield.

 

Rashee Rice