Waiver Wire Analysis: Week 8

The results of Week 7 serve as a reminder that when cluster injuries happen at an NFL position group, predicting the beneficiaries is extremely challenging. When both Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers landed on I.R. after Week 6, many in the fantasy industry, including myself, predicted that Zach Evans was primed to serve in a meaningful role in Week 7. After all, he was the only other RB on the active roster at the time, and he had a relatively impressive collegiate production profile.

Well, we now know how silly that forecast looks in retrospect. Zach Evans saw a grand total of zero offensive snaps, while Darrell Henderson, who was last employed by the XFL’s Arlington Renegades, became the Rams’ feature back.

Last week was also a reminder to continue to monitor news even after making your Tuesday or Wednesday waiver claims. As last week progressed, it became more and more clear that Henderson and Royce Freeman would lead the backfield, in a way that was nearly impossible to predict earlier in the week. Make sure you are NOT simply submitting waiver claims on Tuesday or Wednesday without continuing to update your roster through the weekend. Often, more news will break that will give us critical information on who the best additions are all the way up until Sunday morning.

Anyway, let’s move from the lessons of last week to this week’s targets. Week 8 features one big fish off the wire, with several other smaller additions to help round out your roster as we approach the fantasy playoffs.

As a reminder, here are explanations for each section of the article. Read the descriptions below to determine whether “Home-League Waiver Targets” or “Deeper-League Targets” is more relevant for your particular league:

• Home-League Waiver Targets: This section focuses on the typical “home league” with friends, family members, and co-workers. These leagues typically include starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1-2 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST, and 5-7 BENCH spots. I will use ESPN & Yahoo rostership percentages to gauge which players are available in a typical league. To qualify as a waiver target, the player must be rostered in <30% of leagues on either Yahoo or ESPN.
• Deeper-League Targets: This section will be focused on deeper leagues, which typically have additional starting lineup slots and deeper benches compared to the typical home league. Drafters who play in tournament contests on FFPC, NFFC, or similar should find this section helpful. To qualify as a deeper-league target, the player must be rostered in <50% of FFPC Main Event leagues.

Additionally, recommended FAAB bid percentages are given. These should generally be interpreted as a % of your original FAAB budget, not your current FAAB budget, though obviously keep in mind team- and league-specific considerations when making your bids.

For each list, I will rank the players in order based on how I would prioritize adding them to your teams. I will also include a “Drop List” of commonly rostered players that I would be comfortable parting ways with in order to add these targets to your team.

Top 10 Home-League Waiver Targets

Darrell Henderson

Rostership: 25% Yahoo, 12% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 20-30%

This week’s clear top target if he’s still available, Darrell Henderson returned from a one-year hiatus from NFL action to immediately serve as the Rams’ lead RB with both Kyren Williams (ankle) and Ronnie Rivers (knee) on I.R. Henderson was on the better end of a 60:40 split with veteran journeyman Royce Freeman, with Henderson leading Freeman in snaps (58% vs. 42%), carries (18 vs. 12), routes (41% vs. 25%), and targets (2 vs. 0). While this backfield remains a fluid situation, I would expect Henderson to maintain a ~60% share of the RB opportunities in Los Angeles until Kyren Williams’ eventual return sometime in the Week 12-14 window. In other words, adding Henderson to your roster gives you 3-5 games of low-end RB2 usage as the lead back on a slightly above-average NFL offense. For managers desperate for RB points as they fight for a playoff spot, that’s worth a considerable chunk of FAAB and the No. 1 waiver priority in Week 8.

Kendrick Bourne

Rostership: 26% Yahoo, 24% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 6-12%

It seems like Kendrick Bourne is on this list every week, yet fantasy managers on Yahoo and ESPN seem to want no part of a top-24 PPR WR. Fine. If I have to, I’ll make the case for Bourne over and over again. Bourne has eclipsed a 19% target share in six of seven weeks this season, while running more than 90% of routes three weeks in a row. Bourne’s target share (22%) through seven weeks has been higher than consensus second-/third-round fantasy picks like DeVonta Smith (22%), Calvin Ridley (21%), Jaylen Waddle (19%), and Tee Higgins (16%). In other words, Bourne’s target-earning profile should NOT be available in 75% of ESPN and Yahoo leagues. While the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster and the poor offensive environment in New England poses some risks, Bourne remains a plug-and-play WR3 starter that needs to be added in all 10- or 12-team leagues where available.

Emari Demercado