GM Jason Licht
HC/DC Todd Bowles
OC Dave Canales
Projected Starting Lineup
QB Baker Mayfield
RB Rachaad White
WR1 Mike Evans
WR2 Chris Godwin
WR3 Trey Palmer
TE Cade Otton
LT Tristan Wirfs
LG Matt Feiler
C Robert Hainsey
RG Cody Mauch
RT Luke Goedeke
Passing Game Overview
Baker Mayfield arrived in Tampa on a pathetic one-year, $4 million deal in free agency after struggling for the previous four seasons with the Browns, Rams, and Panthers. Mayfield was named the Bucs’ Week 1 starter late this August but risks losing eventual starts to 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask, pending performance. Mayfield ranked 38th out of 41 quarterbacks in adjusted completion rate last season and finished 31st in yards per pass attempt. He’s barely a two-quarterback-league consideration.
In 2022, Mike Evans topped 1,000 receiving yards for the ninth straight season — setting an NFL record — yet caught just six TDs and saw an anemic 14 red-zone targets after hitting paydirt 27 times in 2020-2021. 18% of Evans’ yards and 50% of his touchdowns occurred in Week 17. Now 30 years old facing bottom-five quarterback play, Evans would be a more terrifying pick were his ADP not dipping so low.
Chris Godwin returned last Week 1 following ACL and MCL tears from December 2021, only to miss Weeks 2-3 with a hamstring strain. Godwin operated as a short-area possession receiver thereafter, averaging 9.9 targets per game but commanding a 5.7-yard aDOT that ranked 99th among 102 qualified wide receivers. Even while Godwin drew career highs in targets (142) and catches (102), they resulted in fantasy’s overall WR18 finish. I’m still buying Godwin as the favorite to lead this year’s Bucs in targets but have to acknowledge his efficiency is likely to remain low with Mayfield and/or Trask at quarterback.
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