Macro vs. Micro: FanDuel Week 2

Week 1 certainly didn’t lack offensive firepower, averaging a whopping 53.3 points per game and shattering numerous all-time scoring records. Indeed, everyone and their mom scored a touchdown, and in some cases, multiple touchdowns. However, as exciting as Week 1 is coming out of the strong opinions of best ball summer, Week 2 is equally as exciting, trying to decipher what is and isn’t real.

Macro: Figuring out what is and isn’t real

As Evan pointed out on the team-by-team pod, Week 1 of last season gave us several illusions:

• The eventual Super Bowl champion Seahawks lost in Week 1 to the 49ers.  
• Their Super Bowl opponent, the New England Patriots, lost in Week 1 to the Raiders. 
• Finally, my personal favorite: J.J. McCarthy won the Offensive Player of the Week during Week 1.

The other side of the coin here is that Week 1 of last year taught us some real things as well:

• The Texans held the Rams, the eventual highest-scoring offense in the league, to just 14 points. The Texans went on to be one of the best defenses in the NFL last year.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba paced the volume for SEA WRs, and continued his alpha ways to lead the NFL in receiving yards.

So, what about this year? How do we figure out which performances were real and which ones weren’t? In other words, what did we notice this past week that could be trends, and which things can we chalk up to randomness, variance, and a wide range of outcomes? 

Obviously this won’t be an exact science, but certain factors are stickier than others. To be more specific, here are two lists that include factors that we should and shouldn’t look at to determine whether a player’s production will continue:

Micro: Applying it to the Week 2 Main Slate