The No. 1 issue subscribers face historically with our props subscription is getting our picks before lines move — and books move them quickly after our releases. (Note: This is a strong hint books understand that our picks are winning in the long run.)
A close second is that, ultimately, when subscribers get bets, sportsbooks are quick to limit accounts of winning bettors, making it challenging to continue to place bets.
Recognizing the above, we wanted to cover some ways to gain the most value out of our props product.
There are basically two ways to approach using this product:
- Get action on our official pick releases
- Use the subscription to find your own plays
- Use our projections and your own knowledge to select your own plays
- Use our Discord to connect with other bettors, discuss plays, and source together
Let’s talk about the official releases first.
Tips for Official ETR Bet Releases
1. Have as many outs as possible
Veteran bettors know this, but it’s worth stating — the more options you have to get a bet down, the better. We will usually list most of the more popular sportsbooks in our releases, but there are many more lesser-known books, and you should be signing up for all of them. Think about every release as a competition between other ETR subscribers, top-down bettors looking for off market lines, and the books moving lines. If you are betting against more subscribers on more well-known books, it will be harder for you to get bets. If you have outs that don’t face as much competition and don’t move as quickly, it will be easier for you.
2. Expect to get limited
Most books will end up limiting any bettor who displays a modicum of intelligence. Anecdotally, users have found that an account’s shelf life can sometimes be extended by “priming” it with square-looking bets early on — hold off on the player props at first and think parlays, and betting into high-liquidity markets like spreads and totals right before the game starts. In speaking with bookmakers themselves, there is some credence to the idea that they will often “pigeonhole” a new account into the sharp or square category.
If you decide to place some of your own action for fun (i.e., action you believe isn’t beating closing lines), it’s a good idea to do this on the book(s) that you think are most important for you to keep in action.
If nothing else, be sure you have a FanDuel account. They have the strongest track record for letting almost anyone get at least $100 or so down on a player prop.
3. Get fast and practice
Getting the bets is tough but not impossible. In a survey of our props subscribers, feedback indicated that subscribers were getting our prop releases between 60-80% of the time. The most successful users do it by having an intimate understanding of their book’s interface and knowing how to find what they need as quickly as possible.
This requires some practice and time spent with various user interfaces. Play around with desktop vs. mobile, make sure you are logged in ahead of the release, etc. There’s no replacement for practice and trying different approaches.
You’ll also find that some of the more successful users are surprisingly forthcoming with their tips if you ask them in Discord. Consider trying to add value in other areas for these veterans in exchange for help here.
4. Don’t go opposite ETR
While there are certainly specific instances where our release will move a line so much that it becomes +EV to bet the opposite way, we do not recommend it as a blanket strategy.
We have a track record of around 10% ROI on a sample of thousands of bets. We believe we have an edge. You shouldn’t be willing to put your money against us unless you have experience in these markets and know what you’re doing.
5. Consider derivative markets
If we release an over on a WR’s receptions, there’s also a chance some other correlated markets may be worth examining. Receiving yards, alternate markets, or even other receivers who we may think are in line for less work than the market is projecting. To be clear, this is nuanced and not recommended for very new bettors, but if you start noticing how markets move after certain types of releases, it may provide clues about how other sharp bettors are using our information, and you may eventually learn some angles to apply.
Tips for Using ETR Projections
This is a more complicated topic that we hope to shed more light on in future content. The most immediate things you can be doing to get the most out of our projections:
1. Act fast
The projections for Sunday’s main slate are released at 3:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, while the projections for MNF, TNF, and any island games are released at 3:00 p.m. on the day of the game.
Sharps, pros, and amateurs alike will be putting those projections to use immediately upon release, and the edges will dry up fast. If you’re not doing the same thing, there may not be much meat left on the bone by the time you get to them.
2. Use a tool like Unabated for median outcomes
Our projections are a mean number, not a median. The only way to project a true median outcome is by running the mean through a “sim” to get the full distribution of outcomes. While we are not making our sim outputs available to the public at this time, many subscribers are using tools like Unabated’s prop tool, which can give you a rough median outcome based on the mean.
It’s not a perfect solution, as their sim will not have the full context of ETR’s distributions, but it’s a good way to get a rough idea of what the median outcome is.
3. Know ball
No hacks here. Most people having success with our projections are doing it with a combination of the above tips and knowing ball.
We are going to be wrong sometimes. And other times just highly uncertain in specific tricky spots. So much of football is week-to-week ebbs and flows, and understanding the context in a given game. The most successful subscribers will be ones who can weigh those factors alongside our projections.
When Are the Plays Released?
Given the challenge of getting the picks, many subscribers understandably want to be online at the right times to have the best chance of getting them.
Due to the dynamic nature of these markets, we’re not able to set scheduled times to release the picks. That said, there are some established patterns you can use as a guideline.
Here’s the timing of every pick we’ve ever released.
Takeaways:
- Friday is the most active day, with Saturday second.
- The peak hours are between 10:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. ET.
- We’ll start dropping picks as early as 9:00 a.m. on Friday and Saturday (but usually not until 10:00 a.m.), but on Sundays we will start as early as 8:00 a.m.
- The most concentrated time for pick releases is Saturday between 1:00 and 3:00, as this is the window just before our projections are released to the public.
More Tips From a Longtime Subscriber
There’s no better source for how to take advantage of our subscription than those who do it. Consider these well-worn tips from longtime subscriber Cpap:
- You need multiple devices — make sure you have Discord open and waiting for the bet to come through on one screen/device, and have the other phone/computer/device that you’re betting on in your hands to take the bet.
- Sometimes there can be alternatives to the bet by betting on another player. For example, let’s say I liked a Brock Bowers under on the chance he would be limited by injury and perhaps even not dress. But UNDER 6.5 receptions was -162 on FD. So if he’s limited, I could bet some on that, and then another bet on the player who would benefit most from his absence, in this case, Michael Mayer OVER 2.5 receptions at +120.
- Try to understand the bet and rationale behind it rather than just blindly tailing. I think this applies to a few things:
- The specific bet and player. Sometimes, team members will share viable alternatives to the official release when applicable, but you can use your own judgment as well. Let’s say ETR released: Keenan Allen (LAC) OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards -114 FD. FD/DK are typically very quick to pull the yards, but sometimes a bet like OVER 4.5 receptions -105 stayed up significantly longer. Understand this is probably a decent bet, too, at the original line if you missed the official (this won’t always be the case, you will have to start to think/learn about when to take derivative bets vs ETR releases).
- The weekly recap Cort puts out helps with the process and understanding what goes into a bet/what ETR is looking for.
- Read through the weekly content put out as part of the NFL In-Season Package: Strength in Numbers, Snaps and Pace, OL vs. DL Mismatches, Silva’s Matchups, and listen to Adam and Evan on the AFC/NFC weekly pods. There is a ton of valuable information in each of these, and you can use them to source your own bets before projection release. I think you get a lot of context behind the projections by consuming this info. It helps you better understand what edges to bet when projections are released, or some alternatives to an official release, etc.
- Use Discord and don’t be afraid to ask questions to other members or ETR guys. You might not always get an answer depending on the time, but that is what the Discord channel is for.
- Be price-sensitive. Don’t force bets.
- For island and prime-time games, sometimes releases will come back to or very close to the original number — especially with unders on big-name players. Be patient and keep checking throughout the week and up until kick if you missed a bet.
- Have access to some type of odds screen: Unabated, OddsJam, and Betstamp are a few.
- Have Twitter notifications turned on for the ETR team — I think Adam’s weekly usage notes are especially helpful.
