Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 1 Stats

Welcome back. We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it:

1. Jadarian Price ran effectively in his NFL debut, carrying the ball 10 times for 52 yards with 7 Rush Yards Over Expectation. He also got two targets and ran 11 routes on 27 dropbacks — acceptable route participation in his debut given George Holani‘s expected status as the pass-down back and Price’s lack of a pass-catching college profile (though Seattle talked about him positively in that regard all training camp). Unfortunately, Emanuel Wilson was the short-yardage back, playing back-to-back snaps on 3rd- and 4th-and-1, then subbing in for a near-goal-line inches-to-go snap before Drew Lock took a ridiculous delay-of-game penalty. Zach Charbonnet presumably takes over both the Holani and Wilson roles once he’s healthy. Seattle mostly used Price on outside runs, and it doesn’t seem like they trust him in short-yardage situations. He looked good, but high-value touches are a concern.

2. Rashid Shaheed played 66% of snaps in Week 1. He only topped that number once with the Seahawks last year, but it’s still not a high enough percentage to be fantasy-relevant. He trailed Cooper Kupp 21-20 in routes. Lock did miss Shaheed underneath on what likely would have been a touchdown in the red zone.

3. The Patriots wanted to run the ball early, and that got Eli Raridon on the field. Raridon played 16 of the first 24 snaps (per PFF’s Nathan Jahnke), caught a touchdown, and played 54% of snaps overall. He only ran 10 routes on 42 dropbacks, so he’s not fantasy-relevant yet. Hunter Henry was at 25 routes — lower route participation than last year. But he also briefly left the game for a concussion check.

4. Mack Hollins played a lot too, first because New England ran the ball so much and then because A.J. Brown left. Despite a catch-less day, Romeo Doubs still projects as the pass-catching WR1 here with Brown out, out-routing Hollins 32-25. DeMario Douglas actually led Patriots pass catchers with 33 routes but remained confined to the slot (38 of 44 snaps there).

5. Rhamondre Stevenson was the clear RB1 as expected. He got 18 of 24 RB carries for New England, ran 29 routes, earned six targets for an 18.2% share, and was the clear primary option in passing situations. He also managed just 51 yards on 18 carries with -22 RYOE. TreVeyon Henderson‘s path to high-value touches remains unclear with Rhamondre as the clear pass-down back and short-yardage option, but his lack of explosiveness could lead to more Henderson touches once healthy. Corey Kiner is the rushing RB2 here for now (six carries), with Lan Larison the backup in passing spots (two targets).

6. The good news: Colston Loveland led the Bears in routes with 34 on 38 dropbacks. The bad news: Chicago scored 59 points, and the second-year tight end had zero catches on two targets. It was a frankly stunning lack of production from the former top-10 pick, especially considering the game environment. Loveland earned 0.25 targets per route run as a rookie and only managed two targets on 34 routes in Week 1. The Bears’ defense looks hideous — Carolina scored 37! — but the offense looks unbelievable. Caleb Williams looks like an MVP candidate, and I don’t see much separating Ben Johnson from the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan tier of offensive play-callers. Better days are ahead for Loveland, and I like buying low if someone in your league is panicking. But the offense may be less condensed than anticipated.

7. As I was saying, the offense may be less condensed than anticipated — because Kalif Raymond had nine targets on 29 attempts for a 31% target share. Ben Johnson loves Raymond (as does everybody) from their time together in Detroit, and he finished tied for second among Bears WRs behind Luther Burden III (27 routes) in routes (22 for Raymond). Rome Odunze ran only 22, but he entered Week 1 with a calf strain. Jahdae Walker is his direct backup and ran 16 routes. I’d expect Odunze’s playing time to increase once he’s off the injury report; it makes sense that the Bears were careful with him since we’ve seen calf strains turn into Achilles issues numerous times in the last few years (across multiple sports). Burden was significantly more involved than he was over the tail end of last season, but his 71.1% route participation still isn’t quite where we’d like to see it from a full-time WR. That’s not ideal, especially since Rome was limited in this game. Burden can still be good on ~75% routes in an elite offense, but I’d actually be a little more worried about him than Loveland coming out of Week 1 despite the big gap in production.

8. D’Andre Swift out-carried Kyle Monangai 18-10 in total — still a wider gap than where it was to close 2025 — but he dominated carries early. Swift out-carried Monangai 10-3 in the first half. Monangai still played plenty and out-routed Swift 15-9, and both backs had 100+ rushing yards in what could be the best-designed run game in the NFL. Swift is fresh off an extension and just had the best training camp of his career, per Bears beat writers. He’s an RB1, while Monangai immediately regaining a sizable role after missing so much practice time with a hyperextended knee makes him one of the best handcuffs in the game, comparable to, if not more valuable than, Blake Corum. The Bears also used Monangai in the 2-minute drill — that pass-game trust could separate him from someone like Corum in the elite handcuffs tier. Corum probably has better standalone value, though, considering he has a near-even rush split with Kyren Williams, whereas Monangai is the clear RB2 behind Swift.

9. The Panthers turned to Jalen Coker in a full-time role to close last season, then paid him this offseason to be the team’s clear-cut WR2. He ran 40 routes on 43 dropbacks and led the Panthers in all major receiving categories in Week 1, totaling eight catches on nine targets for 138 yards and two scores overall. Coker has been at 9.2 yards per target or higher in each of his first two seasons despite playing for an inept passing offense, and his 0.18 targets per route run in 2025 may have been artificially deflated because the Panthers prioritized Xavier Legette over him initially upon his injury return due to draft capital. It’s the Bears’ defense, but Coker hasn’t really been given a full opportunity to show exactly how good he is as a former undrafted free agent; he’ll get that chance this season. He doesn’t get to play Chicago every week, but Carolina had an entire offseason to make Coker a priority, and they have clearly done so.

10. Tetairoa McMillan wasn’t as productive while the game result was still in question, but he still got enough garbage-time production to finish with a 21.1% target share. He’s still the clear WR1 here and should only improve upon what was a really impressive rookie campaign (23.5% target share), but it’s possible Coker is good enough to keep him from cresting a truly elite 28+% target share. Still, T-Mac’s ADP didn’t imply a next step into the top echelon of target earners, and he went for 5/75/0 on eight targets in Week 1. A solid start to Year 2.