Survivor Pool Breakdown: Week 1

I do not treat survivor pools with conventional wisdom, because at the end of the day, they are a 17+ leg parlay and there is no formula for that.

My process in all matters of betting is a blend, but especially in survivor. I’ll walk you through how I see each of the core games on each slate, every week, while providing schedule lookaheads and other insights. 

Be sure to check in with ETR’s ownership projections as they update later in the week.

Chargers vs. Cardinals

Spread: Chargers -9.5

Total: 47.5

ETR Ownership: 33.2%

The Chargers are playable next week, with a plus insertion point against the Jets in Week 11 that’s similar to this matchup with Arizona (sneaky interesting offense/unreliable defense). Then Los Angeles has that Week 16 tilt in Miami, which will be close to a free square if the Chargers have their core intact. So, I’m interested in holding the Chargers for that Miami game, with the optionality to play them against the Jets if needed.

For this week, I’m very interested in Mike McDaniel calling a Justin Herbert-led offense, because the ceiling is the league’s best offense. My concern is that Jesse Minter is in Baltimore, and the Chargers may truly have a below-average defense without an elite coordinator. I’m not quite worried about an upset here, but I could see Arizona hanging around.

Ultimately, I’m not going to fade Los Angeles outright, but I’d rather hold them.

Best Remaining Matchups: Week 2 vs. LV, Week 11 vs. NYJ, Week 14 at LV, Week 16 at MIA

Jaguars vs. Browns

Spread: Jaguars -8.5

Total: 40.5

ETR Ownership: 32.5%

From a pure football angle, this looks like the best spot for Jacksonville all year. The Jaguars will have a trench advantage while facing a team with quarterback volatility that has a new head coach, Todd Monken. You’re also getting the Myles Garrett-less Browns defense, on the road, in a September game in Florida where it’s forecasted to be 90 degrees on Sunday, as of this writing. Unless the Jaguars face a backup quarterback down the road, I like these conditions against Cleveland more than anything else on Jacksonville’s schedule.

I will play Jacksonville based on the conditions mapped out above, and it would not surprise me if they end up with the highest ownership on this slate in a variety of tournaments.

Best Remaining Matchups: Week 10 at TEN, Week 11 at NYG, Week 12 vs. TEN, Week 17 vs. WAS

Lions vs. Saints