I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a bit more tightly priced than usual for a Week 1 slate. The stars were grossly underpriced, but there just weren’t many low-priced options to choose from. That led to some very tight 2v2s and 3v3s.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* I never understood the argument against Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.1 in redraft settings. Now we got a chance to play him at just $8000 without David Montgomery (Texans), without Isiah Pacheco (injured), and at home against a middling at best Saints defense. Any cash lineups without Jahmyr Gibbs need to reevaluate their process.
* Brock Bowers (knee) was a surprise scratch after salaries came out. That left Michael Mayer, one of the best No. 2 TEs in the NFL, at just $2900. And he was facing the least talented team in recent memory, the Dolphins. Mayer was my most-clicked player in Best Ball this season because of his contingent value, I wasn’t going to miss a chance to pile in on him here.
* The best WR plays also happened to be the most expensive WR plays. So even if I wanted to poke holes in a Ja’Marr Chase, there weren’t many other places to go. Regardless, I didn’t see many holes to poke. Chase and Joe Burrow were both healthy through the entire offseason, and Chase was simply too cheap for the matchup.
* Speaking of expensive (but still too cheap) WR plays, I thought Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Chris Olave wasn’t too close. Even at an extra $800. ARSB had the far better QB play, is far more durable, and was at home with the far better touchdown expectation. Silva mentioned on Establish The Show Friday night he had ARSB as the best raw WR play on the slate, ahead of Chase.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only considered two QBs: Jared Goff and Justin Herbert. Both had pristine matchups at home, healthy weaponry, and a plus matchup. I did prefer Goff because with Jahmyr Gibbs as the workhorse, I expected the Lions to tilt more pass heavy. And with given the state of the Lions defense, I thought there was a better chance Goff could find a 90th-percentile outcome via a true shootout. Whereas Chargers OC Mike McDaniel is more run-oriented than some realize.
* Perhaps the biggest question of the slate was what to do at RB2. I thought all of these guys were in play for that spot, this is the order we had in Top Plays: Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, Omarion Hampton, Saquon Barkley.
I threw out Achane because his team is perhaps the least talented I’ve ever seen, and his QB is not a checkdown thrower. I also didn’t want to pay all the way up for Bijan given the mess of the Falcons QB situation. In the end, I did not think the Colts would trust Seth McGowan or DJ Giddens for any real snaps. In other words, I expected Taylor to play 90%+ of the snaps – including passing situations. That role plus talent is really hard to fail in fantasy.
* Another big decision was which WR to punt with: Devaughn Vele or Tre Tucker. With Brock Bowers (knee) out, in theory Tucker was the No. 1 pass game option. But I wasn’t 100% sure on that – he is not any kind of load-bearing WR.
So the last 2v2 I looked at was Vele and Sam Laporta vs. Tucker and Juwan Johnson. We had it almost dead even in projections. Silva was adamant that the Vele side was the right one on Last Minute Livestream. And given the opportunity to get two guys from the NO-DET game environment, rather than hoping Tucker is “Kirk Cousins” No. 1 option… I agreed.
* I thought Jets D/ST, Jaguars, and Steelers were all fine options. I liked Jaguars best, but I’m rarely going to make significant changes to my team just for D/ST. The scoring is just too unpredictable. Note that the Titans came into the week with Thorn’s No. 32 offensive line, and Cam Ward was one of the premier QBs to stream against last season. The Jets added No. 2 overall pick David Bailey to Will McDonald on the edge. At just $2500, I thought it was worth going down to them in order to get in Jonathan Taylor at RB2.
Week 1 Results
I was really happy how I handled the late 2v2 (see above). I got more exposure to the game I wanted, and also understood the fragility around Tre Tucker’s projection. I also thought my D/ST strategy was correct in cash. The other important part was getting RB2 right – was a bit fortunate there given how poorly the Colts played overall, but part of the Jonathan Taylor thesis was his chances of staying on the field even in negative scripts.
Regardless, Jahmyr Gibbs was only 77.3% owned in the massive $25 single entry double up on DraftKings. If 22.7% of people are going to fade that Gibbs spot, we are going to be in good shape.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 159.94 points, won 82.2% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play due to site functionality
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
