I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This slate featured two really underpriced (but still expensive) star running backs in Jahmyr Gibbs and Kenneth Walker. The theme of the week was figuring out how fit those guys in, despite the weekly dearth of quality cheap WR options.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Jahmyr Gibbs should be at least $9500 in normal matchups. In a home game against the Jets, I could argue he should be $10,500. The setup, talent, and role is so absurd – any cash lineups without Gibbs should’ve been thrown out when he is $8800. Our Player Comps Tool showed only seven other instances in the history of ETR with an RB projection in Gibbs’ range Week 3 — we had 27.7 base and 44.4 ceiling. Note that our ceiling projections are the average of the top-25th percentile outcomes in our sim.
* Kenneth Walker’s role is among the best in the NFL. Now he got to face a talent-less Dolphins team, with a healthy Patrick Mahomes demanding safeties play deep. Similar to Gibbs, the $7400 tag was laughable. Walker was our second-best salary-adjusted play on the entire slate in projections.
* It was a very strong setup for Garrett Wilson. He was in the dome against a very bad Lions secondary, and the Jets were missing three pass-catchers (AD Mitchell, Omar Cooper, Mason Taylor). Wilson easily projected for 30%+ of the Geno Smith targets. At just $6300, it was the kind of WR upside I had to have at a reasonable cost.
* The Titans D/ST was facing mistake-prone Jameis Winston. And there was weather in East Rutherford. And they were just $2400 on a slate without any standout defenses, at least in terms of salary-adjusted value. I wasn’t going to overthink this one on either site.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only considered RB for the flex spot on this slate. And the only two that could fit were Jaylen Warren and Chuba Hubbard. We had them almost dead even in projection.
Warren was on the injury report with a shoulder issue. But other than that, the opportunity was very strong given Rico Dowdle (toe) out and Aaron Rodgers’ RB target rates. Hubbard was operating without Jonathon Brooks and against the lowly Browns.
I did prefer Hubbard slightly as he wasn’t on the injury report. But I was always just going to play whatever fit – that turned out to he Warren on FD and Hubbard on DK. It gave me a bit of a natural hedge.
* Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were simply too expensive for this slate, at least on DraftKings. I did not want to full punt with Jameis Winston ($4000) thanks to the weather and expected run-heavy gameplan.
So the best way to save money was with a $5K QB. I considered Kyler Murray ($5100), Tyler Shough ($5400), or Trevor Lawrence ($5700). I was a bit queasy on Kyler from a floor perspective, as we have not seen him play well since 2024. Perhaps I should’ve given Lawrence-Warren over Shough-Hubbard more thought, but I liked the idea of hedging the RBs across sites there. And I was fine with Shough at home against the Raiders.
* I would’ve loved to get to Amon-Ra St. Brown at $7900. And there was a lineup I considered that went down to Cade Otton and up to Amon-Ra. But in the end I was fine with Parker Washington at just $6000. I’m not sure people realize how dominant P-Wash has been in target share since his late-2025 breakout, and I expected the slot man to mostly avoid Christian Gonzalez.
* Tight end was a really odd spot this week. Before the Zay Flowers (hamstring) “in” reports surfaced around 1215pm ET Sunday, I had a TJ Hockenson-Bateman lineup in. When I took Bateman out on DraftKings, I went to Isaiah Williams–Dalton Schultz.
I thought that was a fine 2v2 from a floor perspective. I expected Williams to play every snap for the Jets in a very good setup at $3300. I also expected Schultz to lead the Texans in targets against a very poor Colts defense.
Week 3 Results
I know the Isaiah Williams play looks really bad, but he ran 40+ routes against the Lions and Geno Smith was ultra-sharp. Given the context of the slate, I’d make that play again. I was also happy with the decision to force in Tyler Shough over Kyler Murray, I could have auto-piloted to Kyler without thinking about floors. Great to start the season with three straight wins.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 159.94 points, won 82.2% of head-to-heads
Week 2 Draftkings: 154.76 points, won 81.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 163.30 points, won 73.9% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play due to site functionality
Week 2 FanDuel: 125.86 points, won 66.7% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 140.36 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
