Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 4

Up In Pace | Looks Fast, Could Be Slow | Slow-Paced Slogs | No-Huddle Notes

Welcome to the Week 4 edition of Snaps & Pace — back-to-back winner of the FSWA’s Best Football Series — where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, while identifying main-slate matchups that will — and will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

If you expected to ease into the season, the awakening has been rude. We already had weather-affected games in the Northeast, the Raiders are undefeated, and injuries are piling on faster than Justin Herbert haters.

Some events were planned, like the Cardinals filling truckloads of garbage-time stats and the 49ers needing to start a substation at wideout. Some were harder to see coming, like one Harbaugh family pet suddenly coaching another, and the new Patriots dynasty looking more “January 6th” than “American Revolution.”

From a pace perspective, we spiked dramatically in Week 3 (125.4 plays per game) after a sleepy first couple of weeks. It was the highest per-game snap count for a non-overtime week in two years and was accompanied by a scoring rebound (47.5 points) after Week 2 (40.4) dove off the Week 1 cliff (49.4).

It’s been a hell of a few weeks.

Incredibly, we’re already finished with September football, and the damn London games are calling again. Let them go to voicemail, and let’s dive in.

“Situation neutral” is meant to provide context and refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half). Neutral Pace (average play-clock seconds used), Neutral Pace Over Expected (POE), and Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) are based on neutral game script and are provided by our data science team.

Up In Pace

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Our first pace catalyst is an old standby. The Cowboys have been juicing game scripts since Dak Prescott arrived in Texas — and they’ll need a full team effort on Sunday. Fortunately, for us, the Dallas defense also appears up to the task. Injury-ravaged in an already shaky secondary, only the Dolphins have surrendered more EPA per pass play. Coupled with somewhat rejuvenated run-stopping — at least in key moments — we have a burgeoning pass-funneling unit. As for the offense, we know who sets the pace. The Cowboys are up to fifth in PROE, fifth in neutral pace, second in average play-clock seconds remaining, and they’re coming off a 129-play, 65-point rager in Rio. In truth, Dallas needs little introduction as a pace-pushing presence — but you got one anyway.

The Texans have mostly played voluminous contests, as their games rank fourth in combined snaps. It is not their typical profile, and, along with the sporadically leaky defense, it could be small-sample noise. Houston has, however, been snapping the ball quickly — ranking eighth in average play-clock seconds remaining during neutral situations. What comes after the snap, on both sides of the ball, hasn’t filled their games with fantasy goodness. With a pregnable offensive line, impotent passing attack, and typically impenetrable defense, Texans games could use some help with scoring. The good news is the Cowboys’ secondary is filled with stiffs, C.J. Stroud has been allowed to throw at a solid rate during neutral situations (61%; 10th), and Nico Collins is close to his return. We saw the Texans in a sideways script during their 36-31 barnburner with the Bills. Dallas offers a higher-octane pace accelerant.