For the first time this season, you could argue that the Thursday night game has the best survivor option on this week’s slate. Factor that with injury uncertainty impacting other strong options, and this is the most complicated slate of the year to date. Let’s dive in.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers (TNF)
Spread: Cowboys -8.5
Total: 47.5
ETR Ownership: 25.9%
First, in my experience, Thursday night games tend to see some suppressed ownership due to both the inconvenience of making a pick early and the unwanted variable of a short-week game often being a mess. Thursday has a (warranted) reputation of hosting games that have unexpected outcomes in the public eye. I say that because Dallas would likely be played at a higher rate if this were a Sunday game.
Without that, if Dak Prescott plays well against Tampa’s “throw on them to beat them” style of defense, Jalon Daniels in a negative game script is a potential disaster. Daniels is, at least currently, a bad version of Malik Willis who should not be starting NFL games.
So, from a pure football standpoint, I’m fine with playing Dallas, and I could see the Cowboys’ defense taking a step forward against what was a bad Buccaneers offense before Daniels was forced into action.
To frame that another way, I’d be less surprised if Prescott threw for 300 yards and four TDs with Daniels having four turnovers than I would be if Tampa won this game outright.
Personally, I try to stay away from Thursday games whenever possible, but I view this similarly to Patriots vs. Jets last year on Thursday, where I’m going to do it — it’s just a question of at what rate.
Future value-wise, this game is a greater-than-or-equal-to option than Week 8 vs. Arizona or Week 11 vs. Tennessee.
If you are in Circa, the Eagles are a mess, so I’d be looking to hold Dallas for Thanksgiving, especially since the Cowboys have two other playable spots in the second half of the season that you could conceivably pivot to.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 8 vs. ARI, Week 11 vs. TEN, Week 17 vs. NYG
Bengals at Dolphins
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