Gallagher’s NBA Matchups: October 9

This could be the last night of the NBA playoffs, and the Lakers are sporting their Black Mamba jerseys in hopes they can close it out to help honor the legend Kobe Bryant. The Lakers are 4-0 in these jerseys and scored 120.0 points per game, including one of the biggest shots of the postseason when AD hit the buzzer-beater against the Nuggets.

We know coach Erik Spoelstra is not going to pull any punches, and after Game 3 he said he can’t afford to sit Jimmy Butler for many minutes. With Bam Adebayo getting a game under his belt, he and Tyler Herro should also get a ton of minutes as the Heat look to extend this series.

Unfortunately, the Heat probably won’t have Goran Dragic (foot). On Tuesday, the broadcast showed Dragic really upset after he went through warmups, and it’s clear he can tell his body is failing him at the most important part of his career so far. He’s probably not going to be out there again, so Spo will really have to count on Jimmy and Herro while Nunn had a nice bounce-back game on Tuesday.

 

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-7), 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Heat 104.5, Lakers 111.5
Injury News: Goran Dragic (foot) is doubtful, Gabe Vincent (knee) is questionable, Anthony Davis (heel contusion) is probable, LeBron James (groin) is probable, and Danny Green (finger) is probable.
Heat Expected Starters: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard

Heat Rotation Notes: Two minutes of Olynyk next to Bam Adebayo, four minutes of the Jae/Iguodala PF/C frontcourt (with Herro, Jimmy, Nunn), final eight minutes had no subs (Herro, Duncan, Bam, Jimmy, Jae), Kendrick Nunn had a 17-minute stint in the first half (eight in second half), Duncan and Herro didn’t have overlap in 2Q.

Lakers Rotation Notes: Markieff Morris started 3Q (Dwight or McGee not out there at all after first seven minutes), LeBron has three straight 12-minute fourths (three in previous playoff games combined), Rondo and KCP closed in the backcourt (AD, LeBron, mostly Morris).

Spo Quotes: He said Game 4 was a “throwback game” and the Lakers were able to win “those moments of truth.” When asked about showing and recovering more on defense, he said he can’t trick LeBron with different coverages, but LeBron put his hands all over the game. On Herro and new packages for him, Spo said it’s pretty clear the Heat already have a package for him late in games, and the Heat count on him to make “unscripted” plays. Spo said the team “will need all of it” on Herro’s output. On Bam, Spo said he passed the strength and mobility tests. He said Dragic wasn’t ready despite how he put his heart and soul into playing. Spo said he expects AD and LeBron on Jimmy, but “Jimmy’s not running from that.” Spo said the Heat have to help him by creating more space.

Vogel Quotes: He said the Lakers tweaked the defensive scheme, and AD’s matchup on Butler “was a big factor” and the defense starts there. He said that keeping AD or LeBron on Jimmy “was a big part of our plan” and the Lakers had that idea because that’s what the film study showed. On KCP, Vogel said “he’s a confident young man” and he was proud of Danny and KCP on bounce-back offensive games. Vogel said to LeBron if he ever needs a play off, then go to a Rondo-AD pick and roll.

Quick Takeaway: Spo knows it’s going to be tougher on Jimmy, but Jimmy will still run the O. Herro may have more responsibility. Vogel is probably going to ride with his starting lineup, close with Rondo, and may go to Morris to start the third.

 

Overall Notes

*In Game 4, the Lakers were 17-of-27 in the paint while the Heat were 16-of-30. The Lakers were 9-of-14 on corner treys while the Heat were 3-of-7.

*Miami was just 15-of-42 on uncontested shots (35.7%), including some really bad lines from Jimmy Butler (2-of-7), Jae Crowder (2-of-7), and Kendrick Nunn (1-of-7). Tyler Herro was the only one with decent volume and efficiency (7-of-13) on uncontested.

*In Game 4, the Lakers were 6-of-19 on wide-open treys while the Heat were just 2-of-11. On the series, it’s the Lakers at 8.3-of-21.5 per game while the Heat are 4.0-of-12.5. The Heat won the wide-open battle by 1.9 per game in each series during the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

*The Lakers have been pretty good late in the shot clock, making 42-of-91 (54.9 eFG%, 20 treys) while the Heat have made 31-of-71 (49.3 eFG%, eight treys). On the other shots this series, the Lakers are 114-of-248 (53.8 eFG%, 39 treys) and the Heat are 116-of-244 (55.1 eFG%, 37 treys).

 

Heat Notes

*The AD adjustment really hurt Jimmy, making just 1-of-5 from the field and 3-of-4 from the line for five points in 27.1 partial possessions. (52.5% of Jimmy’s offensive time). Jimmy fared well on LeBron with eight points on 3-of-4 from the field and 2-of-2 from the line in just 12.2 partial possessions (17.9% of Jimmy’s O time). After back-to-back games of 24 drives, Jimmy was still able to get 20 in Game 4, scoring 13 points off those (23 points in Game 3, nine in Game 2). The return of Bam didn’t really mess with Jimmy too much if you look at his role compared to Game 2 with similar touch time (9.0 in 4, 8.6 in 2) and potential assists (18 in 4, 16 in 2). The Lakers really kept Jimmy out of the paint as a scorer, making 6-of-11 in the paint in Game 4 after his eye-popping 13-of-16 in Game 3. Based on the comments from the coaches, we know Vogel is going to prioritize locking down Jimmy, but we know Spo will be putting the ball in Jimmy’s hands when the chips are down. Expect opportunity for Jimmy and we know he’s going to carry his team.

*Bam wasn’t too big of an impact on offense with just eight shots and going 3-of-5 from the line for an 18.8 usage rate. Bam was only assisted on just two of his makes in Game 4 and just one in Game 1, which are the only two times all postseason he had 0-2 assisted buckets in a game. Bam only had seven potential assists in Game 4 and just one in Game 1 before his injury, so the Lakers have really done well at taking away Bam’s dime chances. In previous series he was showing a really nice upward trend. Bam had 11.8 per game against the Celtics, 10.2 against the Bucks and 9.8 in the Pacers series. We knew it was going to be a tough matchup for Bam on the offensive side, and nothing has really changed there.

*Tyler Herro had his best game of the series as a scorer with 21 points, and he wasn’t too bad on the defensive side either. Like Game 3, Miami used him off ball a bit with five catch-and-shoot attempts, which is more than what he had in Game 1 and 2 combined (four) and close to the eight attempts in Game 3. Herro, finally, had success off the dribble at 5-of-10 on his pullup shots for a 55.0 eFG%. In the first three games, he was at just 4-of-19 on pullup shots, so it’s an encouraging trend after his 1-of-10 in Game 1. Herro did have three assists in Game 4, but he cashed in on all three of his potential assists. It’s still a positive trend here, and again Spo has suggested Herro will get all he can handle.

*Duncan Robinson was outstanding in the efficiency department with 17 points on an 88.2 TS% in Game 4. Hey, he even had three assists on two potential assists because the scorekeeper was generous on a Herro layup. We knew that Duncan was going to be part of the game plan for Game 4 because Jimmy and Spo basically told us they were going to use him (mentioned in Matchups and on pod). In the last two games, the Heat were using DHO action with Jimmy and Duncan more often, and he actually didn’t get any shots off the Bam DHO, which was his bread and butter. With AD really dropping coverage on Jimmy, you can bet Duncan gets a lot of action with Jimmy to try to force the defense to come up a bit more. The Lakers really locked down Robinson as a shooter with just two uncontested shots (0-of-2), but he buried 4-of-5 contested ones.

*When they weren’t going with a center, the Heat went with a lineup of Herro, Nunn, Jimmy, Jae and Iguodala for 4.0 minutes. As mentioned in the rotation notes, we saw two minutes of an Olynyk-Bam duo. That duo is up to 27 minutes at +23 in plus/minus in the postseason, and Olynyk still makes sense out there. Although, Spo would be making a decent change if he ups it to like 4-5 minutes next to Bam tonight.

*Andre Iguodala‘s defense may also be needed here (more below). If so, that could come at the expense of Kendrick Nunn.

 

Lakers Notes

*Anthony Davis’ defense was the key, but don’t dismiss his offensive output. His teammates continue to put him in an outstanding position to score with 67.5% of his buckets coming off an assist in this series. That’s right where it was in the Denver series (68.0%) when he smashed on them, and way up from the Houston series (45.8%) when he didn’t flourish too much. AD also has a 70.1 TS% in the NBA Finals, which is up from 67.1 vs. Denver, 66.3 vs. Houston and 65.6 vs. Portland for a steady increase. The Heat did put Bam on him more in Game 4, but AD is still fine with 11 points on a 4-of-10 shooting line (one trey, two FT) in 26.5 partial possessions to give him decent volume in that time. The Heat are still going to throw a lot of bodies on AD, but we saw in Game 4 how the Lakers will try to get him involved early. Maybe the Heat try to put more pressure on him on D to force foul trouble, but AD should smash again.

*LeBron James continues to be a bit passive in the halfcourt with just five drives in Game 4, dropping his average to just 10 per game in the series. Then again, he doesn’t have to be aggressive now that he’s a capable shooter. I thought this was interesting:

We’ve seen in the past that the Lakers have tried to use LeBron off ball a bit, especially in the Houston series. Even with the lack of drives in this series, he still had eight shots at the rim in Game 4 and he’s at 11.0 per game in this series. Part of that is because he has 10.8% of his points in fastbreak, but LeBron has also been assisted on 37.5% of his makes in this series. He was assisted on 34.6% of his makes in the Denver series, 37.0% in the Houston series and 27.1% in the Blazers series — 28.9% on the season. As Vogel has said for months now, LeBron can really thrive off the ball, and that’s held up with Rondo being a bigger factor.

Matchup wise, he’s been pretty good against Jimmy Butler defense at 13-of-20 from the field (three threes, one free throw) on 94.4 partial possessions. Meanwhile, he struggled a bit on Iggy, making just 2-of-11 from the field (one trey, three free throws) on 23.9 partial possessions. We know LeBron is going to want to rise to the occasion.

*Rajon Rondo continues to thrive and his chemistry with AD is really showing up. He’s at 13.4 dimes per 36 in his 140 minutes with AD while LeBron is off the court, and 21 dimes have been to AD. That’s including 10 dunks or layups from AD on those dimes. LeBron’s off-ball impact makes a stronger case for Rondo to see more time.

*The Markieff Morris with KCP, Green, LeBron and AD lineup has been great. In fact, it’s been the best lineup in the playoffs with a +44.4 net rating among the 35 lineups with 36 minutes. Meanwhile, the Lakers’ starting unit has a -7.1 net rating in this series over 46 minutes. Vogel hadn’t busted on that Morris lineup yet in this series before he went to it for six minutes in Game 4, so we can probably count on it again. Although, you’d think it’s just there off the bench if he doesn’t like what he sees.

Matchup Helps: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Rajon Rondo, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Matchup Hurts: Dwight Howard, Kendrick Nunn, Danny Green