Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 16

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 16. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 16 Bye week: None

DL Rankings – Week 16

1. Bucs
2. Browns
3. 49ers
4. Steelers
5. Saints
6. Rams
7. Cowboys
8. Packers
9. Eagles
10. Bears
11. Panthers
12. Cardinals
13. Titans
14. Chiefs
15. Chargers
16. Bills
17. Patriots
18. Colts
19. Football Team
20. Raiders
21. Ravens
22. Bengals
23. Vikings
24. Giants
25. Broncos
26. Seahawks
27. Jets
28. Jaguars
29. Lions
30. Texans
31. Dolphins
32. Falcons

OL Rankings – Week 16

1. Bucs
2. Browns
3. Eagles
4. Cowboys
5. Patriots
6. 49ers
7. Saints
8. Colts
9. Chiefs
10. Rams
11. Vikings
12. Football Team
13. Titans
14. Packers
15. Bills
16. Bengals
17. Chargers
18. Cardinals
19. Broncos
20. Seahawks
21. Raiders
22. Lions
23. Ravens
24. Jaguars
25. Bears
26. Steelers
27. Falcons
28. Giants
29. Jets
30. Texans
31. Panthers
32. Dolphins

Biggest Week 16 DL > OL Mismatches