Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 191-147, +$2,599 (through Week 11)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 179-114, +$5,299 (through November 22)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Josh Allen pass yards
Line: 261.5 yards
Mean Projection: 292 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: November 22, 12:32pm ET
Notes: The FanDuel line was significantly lower than what was on other sites, and Allen has the nut matchup in NFL’s Coors Field.
2. Kirk Cousins pass attempts
Line: 32.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 34.0 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 23, 10:52am ET
Notes: Cousins is 7-3 to the over so far this year against this line, and we have a fairly conservative projection.
3. Dalvin Cook receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.9 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+148)
Date: November 23, 1:51pm ET
Notes: Dalvin’s routes have been extremely strong since the bye, and he is averaging an 11.5% target share during that span.
4. Tony Pollard carries
Line: 14.5 carries
Mean Projection: 11.6 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: November 23, 3:19pm ET
Notes: Zeke matched Pollard in carries last week despite a limited role, and 15+ carries for a back in an even split is a big ask.
5. Mac Jones completions
Line:19.5 completions
Mean Projection:22.1 completions
Book: BetRivers (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-106)
Date: November 23, 5:59pm ET
Notes: Mac has smashed this number in his full games this year. We are expecting plenty of quick-hitters to Jakobi Meyers and Rhamondre once again.
Line: 14.5 yards
Mean Projection: 22.3 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-122)
Date: November 24, 10:23am ET
Notes: The Giants have enough injuries where we are comfortable with Cager’s playing time projection. Dallas is likely to have enough of a lead for New York to pass.
Line: 7.5 yards
Mean Projection: 8.9 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-130)
Date: November 24, 11:24am ET
Notes: Ferguson is playing a lot, but mostly as a blocker. His low route count and expected game script have us liking this on mean vs. median projection.
Line: 55.5 yards
Mean Projection: 49.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-135)
Date: November 25, 12:00pm ET
Notes: There is some pace regression likely in store for Washington, and Gibson still has to split with Brian Robinson.
Line: 54.5 yards
Mean Projection: 44.7 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: November 25, 12:13pm ET
Notes: The QB change to Kyle Allen adds some uncertainty that Collins’ recent target share spike can be maintained.
Line: 75.5 yards
Mean Projection: 69.0 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: November 25, 12:37pm ET
Notes: Mostly a projections bet, as we have Waddle with a robust target share in a pass-happy Miami offense and still have him falling short of this number.
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.2 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-105)
Date: November 25, 2:48pm ET
Notes: Moreau’s routes plummeted last week and he spent more time pass-blocking.
Line: 13.5 carries
Mean Projection: 12.4 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: November 25, 3:02pm ET
Notes: Elijah Mitchell remains highly involved in the 49ers’ offense as a rusher.
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.3 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+130)
Date: November 25, 3:18pm ET
Notes: Watson remains the clear second option to Allen Lazard and faces a stingy Eagles defense.
Line: 5.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 5.2 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 25, 4:14pm ET
Notes: Almost everyone in the projections market has Kirk closer to 5.1-5.2 catches as a mean.
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.4 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-170)
Date: November 25, 5:07pm ET
Notes: We only project Etienne for 3.3 targets in this spot. He needs four catches to beat us.
Line: 195.5 yards
Mean Projection: 218.1 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: November 25, 5:14pm ET
Notes: Passing yards has been one of our best markets all year. We feel solid with the projection here.
Line: 4.5 catches
Mean Projection: 5.7 catches
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+110)
Date: November 25, 7:47pm ET
Notes: CMC’s pass-game role is elite with KShanny on the sticks. It doesn’t hurt that Deebo (hamstring) is in doubt.
Line: 28.5 yards
Mean Projection: 42.2 yards
Book: Caesar’s (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: November 25, 8:25pm ET
Notes: Dillon is 8-2 against the line. We feel good about our carry split projection between he and Aaron Jones. Eagles defense is also a run funnel.
Line: 12.5 yards
Mean Projection: 22.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-125)
Date: November 27, 8:25am ET
Notes: Mahomes may not have to run as much in a blowout, but this is still a super low line for a guy who is usually 8-10+ yards above this.
Line: 20.5 completions
Mean Projection: 19.5 completions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: November 25, 8:31am ET
Notes: This is a big number for Dalton that also doesn’t completely factor in Taysom/Jameis risk.
Line: 54.5 yards
Mean Projection: 51.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: November 27, 11:07am ET
Notes: This game could turn into a rainy run fest by the second half and Mike White starting adds some volatility to Wilson’s outlook.
Line: 12.5 carries
Mean Projection: 15.7 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-140)
Date: November 27, 11:53am ET
Notes: Carter should dominate carries with James Robinson out in a rainy environment.
Line: 11.5 carries
Mean Projection: 14.5 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-130)
Date: November 27, 12:11pm ET
Notes: The Bengals will likely air it out against a stingy Titans run defense, but 12+ carries isn’t a huge ask for Perine in an expanded role without Mixon.
