Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 250-185, +$4,203 (through Week 15)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 297-178, +$9,965 (through December 21)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Evan Engram receiving yards
Line: 44.5 yards
Mean Projection: 39.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 21, 9:00am ET
Notes: Engram has 25 targets over the last two weeks, just a massive number for any player. We’re betting on that to regress to his seasonal average of 6 per game, while the weather in New York should also limit the passing game on both sides.
2. Travis Etienne rush attempts
Line: 15.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 18.6 attempts
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-113)
Date: December 21, 2:45pm ET
Notes: Etienne has dominated RB touches for the Jags since James Robinson was traded. With weather likely limiting the passing game, we feel confident he’ll get plenty of rush attempts.
3. Travis Etienne receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.1 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: December 22, 9:29am ET
Notes: Etienne’s pass game role has been disappointing this season. He’s gone over this number six times all year and has never cleared three catches.
4. Daniel Jones passing yards
Line: 210.5 yards
Mean Projection: 232 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 22, 11:49am ET
Notes: Danny Dimes gets a matchup with the struggling Vikings secondary and will be playing in a dome, which both boost his passing yards projection.
5. Kirk Cousins passing yards
Line: 262.5 yards
Mean Projection: 285 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 22, 11:54am ET
Notes: The Vikings have one of the highest situation-neutral pass rates in the league, and we’re expecting this game to feature plenty of plays as it’s in Pat Thorman’s pace up section.
6. Geno Smith passing yards
Line: 260.5 yards
Mean Projection: 241 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 22, 3:32pm ET
Notes: Seattle has a banged up WR group right now, and even with the potential need to play catch-up, we are well under this line.
7. Gardner Minshew rushing yards
Line: 11.5 yards
Mean Projection: 20.9 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 23, 12:39am ET
Notes: Minshew has averaged 4.2 rush attempts per game for his career as a starter.
8. Antonio Gibson rushing yards
Line: 29.5 yards
Mean Projection: 24.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 23, 12:48am ET
Notes: The coaching staff has talked about getting Brian Robinson more touches as a runner and utilizing Gibson primarily as a receiver.
9. Alvin Kamara rushing plus receiving yards
Line: 99.5 yards
Mean Projection: 85.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 23, 9:06am ET
Notes: The conditions are expected to be horrible, and Kamara stands to lose work to David Johnson and Taysom Hill.
10. Gardner Minshew passing yards
Line: 221.5 yards
Mean Projection: 245.6 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: December 23, 9:29am ET
Notes: Minshew has proven to be a competent passer in the past, and the Eagles are still loaded at the skill positions.
11. Dak Prescott passing yards
Line: 237.5 yards
Mean Projection: 256 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 23, 9:31am ET
Notes: One of the few controlled environments on the slate, we see this game as having more back-and-forth than the market.
12. Mike Evans receiving yards
Line: 49.5 yards
Mean Projection: 69.2 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 23, 11:49am ET
Notes: This game will be played indoors and Evans has 9+ targets in six of his last eight games.
13. Isaiah McKenzie receiving yards
Line: 29.5 yards
Mean Projection: 26.4 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: December 23, 12:06pm ET
Notes: McKenzie stands to lose some work if Cole Beasley becomes more involved in the offense.
14. Tom Brady passing yards
Line: 260.5 yards
Mean Projection: 288.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 23, 12:58pm ET
Notes: Brady is 8-6 on the year to the over on this, and the game will be played indoors.
15. Brian Robinson carries
Line: 12.5 carries
Mean Projection: 15.0 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 23, 1:35pm ET
Notes: Scary against a tough SF run defense, but that fear is partially mitigated by Scott Turner’s quote indicating they want Robinson to get more carries.
16. Jerick McKinnon receiving yards
Line: 21.5 yards
Mean Projection: 33.7 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: December 23, 4:03pm ET
Notes: McKinnon was been hugely involved lately, notching above a 15% target share since CEH became irrelevant.
17. Parris Campbell receiving yards
Line: 42.5 yards
Mean Projection: 37.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 23, 7:16pm ET
Notes: The insertion of Nick Foles adds some uncertainty, but he has a pretty volatile target share in a subpar passing offense.
18. Derrick Henry receiving yards
Line: 14.5 yards
Mean Projection: 12.1 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: December 23, 7:23pm ET
Notes: Henry had one total target in two Malik Willis starts earlier this year.
19. Chuba Hubbard rushing yards
Line: 34.5 yards
Mean Projection: 29.2 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-118)
Date: December 23, 7:31pm ET
Notes: The Lions’ run D has been stout lately and D’Onta Foreman is still the primary back on early downs.
20. Jordan Akins receiving yards
Line: 14.5 yards
Mean Projection: 30.2 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-113)
Date: December 23, 7:31pm ET
Notes: Akins has consistently commanded a respectable target share as the clear TE1 for Houston.
21. Tony Pollard receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.1 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+108)
Date: December 23, 7:56pm ET
Notes: Pollard has been more involved as a receiver lately and we like the + money here.
22. Kenneth Walker receiving yards
Line: 16.5 yards
Mean Projection: 13.8 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-113)
Date: December 23, 8:09pm ET
Notes: There are reasons to be tentative with Walker after the Seahawks called up two running backs from the practice squad on Saturday. KW3 didn’t practice all week.
23. Patrick Mahomes rushing yards
Line: 14.5 yards
Mean Projection: 23.0 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 24, 9:46am ET
Notes: A relatively low line for Mahomes, who has cleared this more often than not over the past few seasons.
24. Alec Pierce receiving yards
Line: 44.5 yards
Mean Projection: 40.1 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 24, 5:31pm ET
Notes: As mentioned with Parris, there is some added uncertainty with Foles starting, but all the projections sources we look at have Pierce under here.
25. Tom Brady pass attempts
Line: 37.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 39.3 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 25, 11:56am ET
Notes: We think this is an overreaction to projected game script. If the Cardinals can even stay moderately close, Brady is going to sling it.
26. Zack Moss carries
Line: 13.5 carries
Mean Projection: 12.4 carries
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-122)
Date: December 26, 12:38pm ET
Notes: Moss dominated carries last week, but Jeff Saturday declined to name a starting RB, opening the door for a larger Deon Jackson role, and the Colts could also give a few touches to Jordan Wilkins this week.
