Baltimore vs. Tennessee
Team Totals: Ravens 22.5, Titans 18.5
This game’s 41.5-point total is Week 6’s third lowest, while games featuring the molasses-paced Titans average an NFL-low 119 offensive plays. Where necessary, this is a game to fade in fantasy lineup decisions. … After watching teams like the Bills sleepwalk through losses overseas, the Ravens smartly spent the entire week in London after flying in Monday morning. … Lamar Jackson’s Week 5 box score was ruined by seven drops, including at least two would-be touchdowns. Jackson still leads all QBs in rushing with a 47/265/4 line, while Tennessee has yielded the NFL’s fifth-highest completion rate (72%) and sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.4). Jackson looks set up to succeed as both a rusher and passer in London. … Justice Hill (39) out-snapped Gus Edwards (30) in Week 5, but Edwards held the slight edge in touches, 12 to 11. Kenyan Drake played just one snap, and Melvin Gordon wasn’t so much as elevated from the practice squad. Hill and Edwards are unexciting RB3/flex options in an imposing draw facing a Titans defense allowing just 4.0 yards per carry and the NFL’s second-fewest catches (13) to running backs.
Leading the Ravens in target share (29%) and Air Yards share (31%), Zay Flowers’ downfield usage has grown exponentially of late; his aDOT spiked from an anemic 5.0 yards in Weeks 1-3 to 15.7 in Weeks 4-5. Tennessee has yielded the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy WR points. … Nelson Agholor is an intriguing one-game DFS tournament play, having bypassed both Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham for No. 2 wide receiver duties in Baltimore. Agholor is dominating the Ravens’ slot snaps. Beckham (ankle) looks fully washed. Bateman has been hurting the team, even while drawing a pathetic 12 targets total across his four appearances. He’s failed to top 35 yards in all four. … Mark Andrews is a shoo-in top-two TE1 play each week. Three of his red-zone catches have hit paydirt, and he’s easily Jackson’s most trusted target.
Quarterbacking the NFL’s second-slowest offense, Ryan Tannehill is on pace for a 7:17 TD-to-INT ratio and checks in as 2023’s fantasy QB32. Only Derek Carr is scoring less among starting quarterbacks. The Ravens have allowed the NFL’s fewest fantasy points to QBs and got back top CB Marlon Humphrey (foot) in Week 5. … Nearing age 30, Derrick Henry is averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry with just one 100+ yard rushing performance in five games. Losing regular work to rookie Tyjae Spears, Henry has topped 15 carries in just two of five contests after doing so in 14 of 16 games last year. The Ravens are one of four teams yet to allow a rushing TD to a running back. … Spears has played over 50% of the Titans’ offensive snaps in four of five appearances. He’s out-targeted Henry 19 to 11 while running at a 5.8 yards-per-carry clip. Spears is playable in single-game DFS scenarios and is worth stashing everywhere in season-long leagues. Due to his running style and advancing age, Henry is at constant breakdown risk.
Tannehill’s Weeks 1-5 targets: DeAndre Hopkins 42; Chig Okonkwo 22; Spears and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 19; Treylon Burks 13; Henry 11; Chris Moore 8; Josh Whyle 3; Trevon Wesco 2; Kyle Philips 1. … Ninth in the NFL in target share (30%) and 10th in Air Yards share (42%), Hopkins is coming off a season-best 8/140/0 line against the Colts. Hopkins has yet to catch a touchdown despite being tied for 18th in red-zone targets (6). He’s a volume-driven WR2 facing a Baltimore defense that’s allowed the fifth-most catches (76) to wideouts. … Burks (knee) didn’t even travel to London. HC Mike Vrabel suggested this week that Burks only recently resumed running. … Primarily in the lineup for his blocking, Westbrook-Ikhine is a low-floor, low-ceiling WR5. … Moore has turned 89 snaps into 1/44/0 receiving on three targets over the last two weeks. … Making his 2023 debut last week, slot man Philips was targeted once on 13 snaps. … Okonkwo’s nine targets in Week 5 were a career high, but he eked out 33 scoreless yards and played a season-low 58% of the Titans’ offensive snaps. Okonkwo has yet to score or top 35 yards this year. Okonkwo does have one-game DFS appeal despite the tough matchup. Baltimore has allowed the league’s fewest fantasy points, third-fewest yards (122), and zero touchdowns to enemy tight ends.
Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Titans 13
Washington @ Atlanta
Team Totals: Falcons 22.5, Commanders 20
Fresh off a mini-bye following last Thursday night’s blowout loss to Chicago, the Commanders present an ongoing attack target for enemy D/STs. Washington let up five sacks and 11 QB hits to a Bears defense that entered Week 5 with two sacks in four games. OC Eric Bieniemy’s flawed offensive designs allowed repeated free rushers and unblocked defenders to terrorize Sam Howell, who is on pace to take (by far) a league-record 99 sacks. Beneath Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz dome, I’m also willing to stream Howell as a bye-week fill-in QB1. He’s topped 17 fantasy points in four of five games and scored a season-best 26.4 last Thursday. … Down 27-3 at the half last week, the Commanders completely abandoned the run. Pass-game specialist Antonio Gibson out-snapped Brian Robinson 38 to 25, yet Robinson out-touched Gibson 10 to 4. With a 2.5-point spread, Sunday’s game projects as much closer, which should allow Robinson to convincingly retake lead-back duties. On the season, Robinson is still out-touching Gibson 15.2 to 5.0 per game. The Falcons have played stout run defense this year — holding enemy backs to 3.73 yards per carry and zero all-purpose TDs — yet Robinson has earned RB2/flex treatment. Gibson is not a viable play.
Howell’s 2023 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 31; Jahan Dotson 30; Curtis Samuel 27; Logan Thomas 25; Gibson 16; Cole Turner 12; Robinson 11; Dyami Brown and John Bates 10. … Even as Washington’s target and receiving (25/261/1) leader, McLaurin’s target share (17%) has largely underwhelmed, and he is the Commanders’ likeliest candidate for Falcons top CB A.J. Terrell’s shadow coverage. … Yet to exceed 40 yards in a game this season, Dotson’s aDOT has been chopped from 13.5 last year to 7.6 this season under Bieniemy. Dotson is simply not getting big-play chances, while Washington’s widespread target distribution is capping his volume. The Falcons have held opposing wideouts to the NFL’s fourth-fewest yards (605). Dotson profiles as a low-floor, low-ceiling WR4 option. … Samuel is averaging 5.1 touches for 53 yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game. I prefer Samuel’s floor to Dotson’s at this point. … In two games since returning from injury, Thomas has secured 12 of 14 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown on 79% of Washington’s offensive snaps. Thomas is a locked-in TE1 at the weakest position in fantasy football. The Falcons have permitted the NFL’s second-most catches (35) and fifth-most yards (313) to tight ends.
Even while Desmond Ridder turned in his career-best start in Week 5’s win over Houston, the Falcons banked just two TDs, and Ridder has run for 10 yards or fewer in four of five starts. Although I no longer fear an in-game benching for Taylor Heinicke this week, Ridder’s talent limitations plus HC Arthur Smith’s run-first devotion render Ridder a two-QB-league option only. Fifth in the NFL in sacks (16), Washington’s D/ST is playable here. … I’m expecting a bounce-back game for Bijan Robinson after he lost more carries than usual to Tyler Allgeier in Week 5’s defeat, perhaps due to Robinson’s first career fumble lost early in the third quarter against the Texans. Robinson still out-snapped Allgeier 47 to 33 and ran 23 routes versus Allgeier’s nine. The Commanders are conceding a crisp 4.41 yards per carry to enemy backs. Behind Atlanta’s lane-paving offensive line, Bijan remains an elite RB1 play. Allgeier is a justifiable bye-week flex.
Ridder’s Weeks 1-5 targets: Kyle Pitts 32; Drake London 31; Jonnu Smith 26; Robinson 24; Mack Hollins 19; Allgeier 9. … Ridder’s career game trickled down to Pitts, whose 87 yards against Houston were his most since September of 2022. I’d rather try selling Pitts than riding him; he was still out-snapped by Jonnu. Matchups don’t always matter in Arthur’s ground-and-pound offense, yet it’s true that Pitts and Jonnu’s Week 6 draws are improved by Washington’s loss of FS Darrick Forrest (I.R., shoulder). … With first-round CB Emmanuel Forbes flailing, the Commanders have been dusted by D.J. Moore (8/230/3), A.J. Brown (9/175/2), Marvin Mims (2/113/1), Stefon Diggs (8/111/0), DeVonta Smith (7/78/0), and Brandon Johnson (2/66/2) in the last month. London’s matchup is pristine; his usage is never reliable. … KhaDarel Hodge played ahead of Hollins as Atlanta’s No. 2 receiver last week. … The Falcons traded for Van Jefferson on Tuesday. Atlanta is where wideouts go to die, and Jefferson isn’t especially talented.
Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Commanders 20
Minnesota @ Chicago
Team Totals: Vikings 23.5, Bears 21
1-4 and surely deflated by Justin Jefferson’s (hamstring, I.R.) 4-6 week loss, Minnesota is a team to bet against this week as 2.5-point road favorites. (I’m parlaying the Bears’ money line with the game-total over on 44.5 points.) Trade rumors are already surrounding Kirk Cousins, while Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is a forward-thinking mind with strong ties to the tank-willing Sashi Brown–Andrew Berry Browns front-office tree. I’m obviously downgrading Cousins’ outlook sans arguably the best wideout in the league, while I’m doing everything I can to unload Jefferson in season-long leagues with the impact of his injury still fresh on people’s minds. Multiple reports indicate Jefferson won’t return for a month and a half, and the Vikings’ season will almost certainly be over by the time he gets back. (Assuming he does at all.) … The Bears have been diced by enemy backs for an average of 145 total yards and eight TDs in five games. In Week 5’s loss to K.C., Alexander Mattison out-touched Cam Akers by only a 10 to 7 margin and out-snapped Akers 37 to 21. As Mattison has slipped at times in pass protection, he lost some obvious passing-down snaps to FB C.J. Ham in Week 5. Sunday’s matchup is too favorable to throw Mattison away, but his usage is (deservedly) in decline. He’s an RB2/flex option. Akers remains a stash.
UPDATE: Vikings placed backup QB Nick Mullens (back) on injured reserve, knocking him out for at least the next four weeks. Kirk Cousins — the subject of rampant trade speculation — will now be backed up by athletic fifth-round pick Jaren Hall. Over his final two seasons at BYU, Hall averaged 8.6 yards per pass attempt with a combined 51:11 TD-to-INT ratio, adding six rushing scores. I took flyers on Hall in a few two-QB/Superflex Dynasty leagues.
Cousins’ 2023 targets: Jefferson 53; T.J. Hockenson 39; Jordan Addison 29; K.J. Osborn 26; Mattison 21; Josh Oliver 10; Brandon Powell 7. … Averaging double-digit targets per game with a 36% Air Yards share, Jefferson’s loss creates a volume vacuum for the rest of Minnesota’s pass catchers. … Including playoffs, Hockenson’s average receiving line is 6.7/63.8/0.3 on 8.3 targets over his last six games as a Viking. The Bears have surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most catches (34) and 10th-most yards to tight ends (282), including Logan Thomas’ 9/77/1 result in Week 5 … Now Minnesota’s most talented healthy wideout, Addison is a rest-of-year eruption candidate. The Bears’ secondary continues to be haunted by injuries to CB Jaylon Johnson (hamstring), CB Kyler Gordon (broken hand, I.R.), and SS Eddie Jackson (foot). … Whereas Jefferson’s absence renders Addison a WR2 with sneaky WR1 upside, Osborn warrants WR3/flex valuation. Osborn is a plus athlete who will rarely exit the field, technically stepping into Jefferson’s X role. … Powell is the Vikings’ new top slot receiver, although HC Kevin O’Connell could easily opt for more multiple-tight end sets involving Oliver and trusted No. 3 TE Johnny Mundt.
Fresh off a mini-bye following Chicago’s blowout TNF win over Washington, Justin Fields has been fantasy’s QB2 over the past two weeks. The Vikings present a quarterback-friendly matchup, having yielded an 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio and NFC-high 76.4% completion rate. Over his last 16 games, Fields has a 93.4 QB rating with 26 touchdown passes and a 165/1,187/8 (7.2 YPC) rushing line. Despite his slow start, he’s a
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