Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
Team Totals: Bucs 20.5, Falcons 18
Taylor Heinicke Watch is back on after Atlanta dropped Week 6’s home game to Washington fueled by three Desmond Ridder interceptions. As Ridder has tossed five picks in his last three starts and taken 14 sacks over his last four, the Bucs’ D/ST is fully streamable here. … Tampa Bay has held enemy RBs to an average of 109.2 total yards and one all-purpose TD in five games. Bijan Robinson continues to concede significant rushing work to Tyler Allgeier while maintaining a stranglehold on passing-game usage. Last week, Robinson ran a season-high 45 pass routes against the Commanders, and Robinson has drawn at least five targets in five of six games. (Allgeier is averaging 12.5 carries per game but has six catches on the year.) HC Arthur Smith’s emphasis on Robinson as a receiver heightens his floor even in weeks where Bijan doesn’t dominate on the ground. Allgeier is a low-floor if acceptable bye-week RB2/flex option.
Ridder’s 2023 target distribution: Drake London 43; Kyle Pitts 38; Robinson 32; Jonnu Smith 31; Mack Hollins 23; Allgeier 10. … London air balled in Week 1 but has been an every-week WR2/3 ever since on an average receiving line of 5.2/65.8/0.4 in Weeks 2-6. The Bucs have given up the NFL’s ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
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