Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 11

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 11. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 11 Bye Week: Falcons, Patriots, Colts & Saints

DL Rankings – Week 11

1. 49ers
2. Cowboys
3. Eagles
4. Steelers
5. Browns
6. Jets
7. Titans
8. Chiefs
9. Giants
10. Packers
11. Bills
12. Rams
13. Chargers
14. Vikings
15. Jaguars
16. Ravens
17. Texans
18. Raiders
19. Lions
20. Colts
21. Bengals
22. Panthers
23. Commanders
24. Patriots
25. Seahawks
26. Dolphins
27. Bucs
28. Bears
29. Saints
30. Falcons
31. Broncos
32. Cardinals

OL Rankings – Week 11

1. Eagles – RG Cam Jurgens is questionable to play this week for the first time since Week 4.
2. Lions
3. Cowboys
4. Ravens
5. Chiefs
6. Bucs
7. Texans
8. 49ers
9. Colts
10. Vikings
11. Chargers – C Corey Linsley remains out with a “non-emergent heart-related issue” that has kept him out of the lineup since Week 3.
12. Browns
13. Jaguars
14. Bengals
15. Bills
16. Falcons
17. Seahawks – RT Abraham Lucas was designated to return from a knee injury that has kept him out since Week 1.
18. Jets
19. Saints
20. Patriots
21. Cardinals
22. Dolphins
23. Packers
24. Rams
25. Broncos
26. Giants
27. Steelers
28. Raiders
29. Bears – RG Nate Davis has been out since Week 6 with a high-ankle sprain with a likely return this week.
30. Panthers
31. Titans
32. Commanders

Biggest Week 11 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Cowboys DL (2nd) > Panthers OL (30th)
2. Browns DL (5th) > Steelers OL (27th)
3. Giants DL (9th) > Commanders OL (32nd)
4. Jaguars DL (15th) > Titans OL (31st)
5. Vikings DL (14th) > Broncos OL (25th)

Biggest Week 11 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Lions OL (2nd) > Bears DL (28th)
2. Texans OL (7th) > Cardinals DL (32nd)

DL > OL

1.   Cowboys DL > Panthers OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Micah Parsons vs. LT Ikem Ekwonu, DT Osa Odighizuwa vs. C Bradley Bozeman

Notes: The Cowboys’ DL ranks first in pass-rush win rate, 12th in QB knockdown percentage, and fourth in sacks per pass attempt. Edge rusher Micah Parsons ranks second in total pressures with 53. The Panthers’ OL ranks 19th in pass-block win rate, 22nd in pressure percentage given up, and 25th in sacks per pass attempt given up.

Carolina’s offense has been a disappointment this season thanks in large part to a lack of weapons in the pass game followed by shaky pass protection stemming from the left side of the line with LT Ikem Ekwonu’s stagnant development as a pass protector and several different replaceable starting left guards next to him. Rookie Chandler Zavala is slated to start in this game with last week’s starter Calvin Throckmorton being cut earlier this week. Add in rookie QB Bryce Young’s inconsistent footwork and slow setup in the pocket, and you have a perfect recipe for disaster this week against a ferocious Cowboys front with mismatches essentially across the line.

2. Browns DL > Steelers OL