The Super Bowl presents a unique opportunity for those of us who love to grind player props. There are a jaw-dropping amount of markets available, many of which we never get during the regular season. Limits on these markets are also exponentially bigger than they typically are.
People constantly ask me what I like for the Super Bowl. That’s a harder answer than it seems, for reasons I’ll explain below. I figured the best thing to do is just drop them all here. Some notes:
1. Yes, many of these lines are no longer available — When a line is off or weak, it gets a bunch of bets and moves. This typically happens early in the week. Since these lines have been out since the Monday after Conference Championships, they have already moved a ton.
2. I am extremely price-sensitive and shop hard — I would not bet Deebo Samuel MVP at 25-1, but I would at 33-1. I would not bet CMC to have most rush attempts in the game at -200, but I would at -185. Please be aware of this if looking at my card.
3. There are a few ways I make bets — Some are projection and simulation based, via our numbers and data science team at ETR. Some are more “feel-based” gut plays. Some I tailed people I respect as sharp.
4. Merit in waiting — I suspect many Super Bowl lines will float up as we get closer to kick. Not all, but many. That’s because the public bets the day of game, or day before. All the whales flying to Vegas for the game won’t be betting until Sunday. So if you like something, like maybe a Travis Kelce under, I’d wait as long as possible.
5. For more on props, check out this pod I did with Evan Silva and Mike Leone. Also this article highlights some ETR staffers’ favorite props.
6. If you are betting, you’d have to really hate money to not grind the signup bonuses. Check out this article for the best signup offers by state.
7. I know some of these bets don’t correlate with each other. I don’t care about that. All I’m trying to do get in as many +EV bets as possible and let the chips fall.
8. I will almost certainly have a losing record on the below props. But since so many are plus-money and longshots, the record isn’t important. The P/L is what matters.
9. Unit size — I don’t bet the same amount on each prop. Sometimes I’m limited. But I also adjust my risk amount based on how big the edge is vs. what we make a price. And of course, on longer shots I risk less.
10. I am not done yet. I’ll be looking for spots close to kick where numbers get bloated up by the public betting overs. I’ll try to update the sheet here.
