The Super Bowl is a celebration of sorts, with a massive menu and a lot of fun bets. Below you’ll find props our staff likes, but isn’t necessarily +EV. It’s stuff we can get a good sweat on. Enjoy!
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Name: Adam Levitan, Former King GPP Bro
Prop: Will Travis Kelce score a TD?
Bet: No -105
Notes: It’s enough already with this cliche and vomit-inducing story. Popular girl dates star football player, they’re voted homecoming queen/king, team wins the big game, and they sail off into the sunset. And by sunset, I mean an overpriced house in the suburbs, 1.5 annoying kids, and dinners at Olive Garden.
All jokes aside, overpriced is a key word here. The narrative that the NFL is “rigged” and the Travis Kelce romance is all part of some Taylor Swift conspiracy… I think it will/is actually moving lines. This is one I’d likely wait to bet on the recreational books like DraftKings (currently -120) and ESPN (currently -130), as the Swifties and conspiracy bros are going to pile into the “Yes” on Kelce Anytime TD.
Name: Evan Silva, Man Of The People
Prop: Deebo Samuel for MVP
Bet: Yes +3300
Notes: Non-QB pieces on the 49ers are more viable for MVP because of the narrative surrounding Brock Purdy. Regardless of how Brock Purdy plays, some voters believe he’s just a “system QB” and not all that valuable. Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel has multi-TD upside as the non-traditional WR and focal point of the passing game.
Name: Anthony Amico, King Nit
Prop: Total Number of Chiefs to Record a Reception
Bet: Over 7.5 -132
Notes: The Chiefs have had a wide range of pass catchers be involved this season. In the regular season after the bye week, the Chiefs went over this line in five of seven games. It has only happened in one of Kansas City’s three playoff contests, but they’ve been dealing with a bunch of injuries. Now Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Jerick McKinnon all have a chance to play. I think this should probably be priced at least at -150.
Name: Pat Thorman, Party Pooper
Prop: Second Half Total
Bet: Under 23.5 +100
Notes: Not the most fun bet on Super Sunday — but at 23.5 points, Chiefs games would be 19-1 to the Under during second halves this season. Their contests averaged 14.4 total second-half points, with only three breaking 20. The one game that went above 23.5 only hit 26 points, and Kansas City has allowed just four second-half points per game during their last eight. 49ers contests have gone under 23.5 second-half points in 12 of 19 games — with three other matchups going over by only 0.5 points. Snail-paced San Francisco ranked 27th in overtime-adjusted snaps per game this season, and Kansas City allowed the second-fewest points per snap — with the 49ers surrendering the third fewest.
Name: Michael Leone, Spreadsheet Virgin
Prop 1: Total Players With a Rush Attempt In Game
Bet 1: Under 8.5 -140
Book 1: Caesars
Prop 2: Total 49ers Players To Record a Rush Attempt
Bet 2: Under 4.5 -162
Book 2: FanDuel
Alt Line: FanDuel U 4.5 49ers players to record a rush attempt -162
Notes: There’s a strong probability the combined number lands on eight exactly, but there’s a lot of resistance to get to nine. These are the most likely candidates for an attempt:
- CMC (SF) – LOCK
- Deebo (SF) – LOCK
- Purdy (SF) – LOCK
- Elijah Mitchell (SF) – Likely
- Pacheco (KC) – LOCK
- Mahomes (KC) – LOCK
- CEH (KC) – Highly Likely
- Chiefs Gadget Play (Hardman or other WR) (KC) – Likely
To lose the combined bet then, you’d need a 49ers rush attempt to a non-Deebo pass catcher or Kyle Juszczyk (four times in 19 games) or a second Chiefs gadget play to a different rusher (possible, Kelce and Hardman each have rush attempts this postseason).
There are also some low-probability outs that CEH (three combined carries in the last two games), Elijah Mitchell (no carries in GB game), or one of the QBs (four combined games with zero rush attempts this season) don’t record a rush attempt.
If you want to play this one safe, you could wait until Jerick McKinnon’s status on the game is finalized. We’re assuming he’s out, but if he plays, this bet isn’t as strong. If he’s out, this line should be closer to -200.
Or you can take the second bet and dismiss any McKinnon risk by only betting on the 49ers U 4.5 players with an attempt. This bet may be the stronger value of the two regardless of McKinnon’s status.
Name: Jack Miller, CBB Sicko
Prop: Patrick Mahomes yards of first TD vs. Texas Tech 3PM
Bet: Texas Tech 3PM -125
Notes: The Chiefs’ willingness to pass near the goal line means the majority of Mahomes’ TD throws come from in tight — only seven of his 27 TDs in the regular season were from more than eight yards out (three of four have been from longer in the playoffs). Meanwhile, Texas Tech is one of the most 3-point-happy teams in the country, ranking 94th in 3PA rate (percentage of FGAs that come from beyond the arc) and 27th nationally in 3-point percentage. Their 8.8 3PM ranks 51st in the country, and their median game outcome through 21 games is nine 3PM. Their 8.5 3PM in Big 12 play is slightly fortunate considering they are only averaging 20.8 attempts per game (41%), but that’s still a respectable volume of 3s to be shooting. On Super Bowl Sunday, they face off against one of the best defenses in the country in UCF, but the strength of the Knights’ defense is defending the paint and they rank slightly below average in opponent 3PAr (207th nationally). The Red Raiders will not be able to score in the paint, and I expect them to basically be chucking 3-pointers all game as they have been inclined to do this year even when playing less stringent interior defenses.
Name: Cort Smith, Establishing Vibes
Prop: Largest Lead of the Game
Bet: U14.5 -135
Book: DK (Game Props > Scoring Specials)
Notes: Purdy and those pick-six-worthy passes feel like the biggest worry here, but with a tight spread of -2, I like our chances of avoiding a three-score game, something we need to do 57.8% of the time to break even.
Name: Jackson Kane, Grammar Bro
Prop: Christian McCaffrey to record 1+ rushing TD and 1+ receiving TD
Bet: Yes +550
Book: DK (Player Specials)
Notes: CMC has accomplished this feat in 15 of 91 career regular-season games, or 16.4% of the time. The implied odds give this a 15.3% chance of happening. In a must-win game for Kyle Shanahan and Co., they will likely lean on their bellcow back in high-leverage situations as they did throughout the regular season; McCaffrey ranked first in the league in RZ rushing attempts with 63 and tied for 19th in RZ targets with 16. He already has four rushing TDs in the postseason, but he has yet to snare one in the receiving game.
Name: Patrick Barnes, Video Content Team
Prop: Gatorade Color
Bet: Clear/Water +1100
Notes: One thing we don’t know for sure is the color of the Gatorade. What we do know is teams always have water in a similar looking tub on the sideline as well. Someone could easily grab the water bucket. It cashed four straight times between 2005-2008. There is also a Gatorade fit product line that has zero added color in addition to a new mystery flavor that is also clear. There is CLEAR value with +1100.
Name: Ryan Reynolds, Betting Guru
Prop: Super Bowl MVP
Bet: Fred Warner +20000
Notes: Silva’s Deebo Samuel play and Travis Kelce are my two favorite mid-range longshots in this market. That said, if you want to take a home-run swing, Warner is in an interesting position. First, he’s the game’s best linebacker and a genuine star player. Second, the short passing game has become more prevalent in Patrick Mahomes’ passing attack. Factor in San Francisco’s sudden struggles against the run, and Warner could end up with a massive amount of tackles. Lastly, I’d have Warner priced in the 100:1 range.