Underdog Fantasy Best Ball: Optimal Position Allocation

In best ball, simply picking the right players is not a realistic strategy. We also need to consider the implications of the no-transaction format.

A big part of that is roster construction. In other words, how many players at each position should we draft? It’s a simple question with a complicated answer for a couple of reasons.

First, our decisions should be dynamic to our positional strength — a function of how we use our early draft capital. If our QB1 is Josh Allen, he’s very likely to be the quarterback who counts in our lineup an overwhelming majority of weeks. In that scenario, selecting just two QBs (with different bye weeks, of course) is correct. But if the first QB we draft is in the Tua Tagovailoa/Kirk Cousins range — players with no rushing juice who are being treated as fringe top-12 options — then taking three makes sense.

Second, we need to account for positional volatility. The weekly range of outcomes at wide receiver is wider than at any other position. As explained below, wide receivers will typically be our most-rostered position.

In order to solve the question of positional allocation, we took a data-driven approach in simulating the Week 17 Finals using the *current* Best Ball Mania payout structure. Then, we dissected the average EV (expected value), Win Rate, and Top-10 rate of teams based on the number of live players, stacking, ADP value, and positional allocations. The results:

NOTE: The “Herzig’s Take” section refers to Justin Herzig’s thoughts as of April 28, 2024. Justin won the first-ever Underdog Best Ball Mania tournament for $200K.

UNDERDOG FORMAT

* 12-team leagues, 18-player rosters
* Half-PPR, otherwise standard scoring. No D/ST or K.
* Starting lineup: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX

QUARTERBACK

Recommendation: Take two if selecting an elite option inside the first seven rounds OR three (including a team’s starter and backup projected for a handful of starts) if waiting.

Analysis: As the QB position evolves with more true dual-threats, we are seeing higher-ceiling players with rushing floors distance from their peers. That elite quarterback strategy backfired last year as the top of the hierarchy failed to separate at historically high second-/third-round ADPs (more on that here), but taking an upside option with early draft capital (and ending up with only two total QBs) is advised. It’s even viable to bully the room and have our QB position wrapped up with two players by the end of Round 9. If we wait longer than that, however, and/or don’t think our first QB has the upside to compete as a weekly top-five option, then we can take three total signal-callers. Taking four QBs remains detrimental and subtracts from the rest of our roster.