The Eagles made a rare trade with a divisional foe on Thursday morning, sending a third-round pick and a pair of seventh-rounders for Jahan Dotson and a fifth-round pick. Philadelphia had been looking at Parris Campbell or Johnny Wilson as their WR3, but Dotson now figures to take that role. Meanwhile, Washington will have Terry McLaurin as a target hog with Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and Olamide Zaccheaus duking it out for targets behind him. Let’s dig into the fantasy implications of this move.
JAHAN DOTSON
Old projection: 40.6 catches on 69.1 targets for 505.2 yards and 3.5 TDs. WR63 on Underdog.
New projection: 32.4 catches on 52.2 targets for 408.2 yards and 2.9 TDs. WR77 on Underdog.
- While Dan Quinn had recently made comments about an open battle for WR2, it was still Dotson who had a clear hold on that role in the Commanders’ second preseason game. Pro Football Focus’ Nathan Jahnke highlighted that Dotson played 16 of 18 snaps and ran a route on 11 of 12 dropbacks with the starters. Brown and Zaccheaus are also longtime vets who have struggled to establish themselves as reliable every-down players, meaning that even if it was a battle, Dotson would have been the favorite to win the job. Washington was primarily using him in the slot this preseason, a fairly stark change from his first two professional seasons, when he mostly played outside.
- Still, it was clear that the new Commanders staff was not as high on Dotson as the previous regime was. They made him play into the second half in their first exhibition outing, well past when all of the other starters sat down.
- In Philadelphia, Dotson should have the WR3 role to himself. Historically, that hasn’t been anything special for fantasy — typically garnering an 8-12% target share — but previous job holders Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor aren’t as talented as Dotson. Still, even with Dotson being the best WR3 the Eagles have had, this target distribution is highly condensed around A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert/Saquon Barkley will get plenty of looks, too. In a vacuum, we expect fewer targets in PHI than Dotson would have gotten in WAS.
- However, Dotson does still have an intriguing ceiling with the Eagles, especially if Brown/Smith miss time. In that case, Dotson could see a 15+% target share in a significantly more efficient offense than he was in previously. Dotson moved down in our rankings post-trade, but it’s definitely not a death blow for him.
COMMANDERS PASS CATCHERS
- McLaurin is going to get all the work he can handle. He has consistently been in the 21-24% target share range throughout his career and hasn’t shown the ability to command a true elite WR1 share yet, but this will be his best opportunity yet to prove he’s capable of that. We have McLaurin at roughly his best single-season target share now.
- Other than McLaurin, the whole Commanders target distribution is uncertain. Brown, Zaccheaus, and McCaffrey will duel for WR2 duties. Brown played the third-most snaps in Washington’s most recent preseason game and is likely the favorite to line up opposite Terry in Week 1, but he’s topped out at 25 targets in a single season so far. Zaccheaus has played five pro seasons (four in Atlanta, last year in Philly) and hasn’t topped 40 targets. As veterans, they will likely get deference early in the year, but neither WR has shown the ability to hold a high-volume role for an extended period of time. That leaves us with McCaffrey, a third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft who evidently hasn’t stood out at training camp so far. Still, he is the most interesting non-McLaurin WR on the roster simply because he’s an unknown compared to more established, likely mediocre players like Brown and Zaccheaus. We are now well above ADP on McCaffrey, but his ADP is certain to rise, and we still have him as nothing better than a late-round dart.
- It’s impossible to draft him in most fantasy leagues, but Zach Ertz somehow managed an 18.7% target share in seven games with the Cardinals last year, and he’s reunited with the same OC that force-fed him over Trey McBride in Arizona. Ertz is averaging an almost impossibly low 5.3 yards per target over the past two seasons, but he could quietly rack up receptions early in the season. Ben Sinnott is the more interesting season-long option, but he’ll likely have a quiet September sitting behind Ertz.
EAGLES PASS CATCHERS
- A former first-round pick in Dotson likely easily surpasses Campbell and Wilson for the WR3 role. Wilson was somewhat interesting given his status as a rookie before this trade, but his best-case outcome without an injury is now WR4, at least for the first part of the season. Campbell is completely uninteresting as a veteran who hasn’t shown the ability to maintain fantasy relevancy for an extended period of time.
- Goedert should remain the third-best pass catcher here, but Dotson is superior competition to what he dealt with before. We lowered Goedert roughly 1.5% in our projections but still have him well ahead of Dotson in base target share.
- We didn’t really touch A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith projections-wise. Yes, it’s stronger competition than they had before, but both of those guys are in another realm talent-wise to every other WR/TE on the roster.
