The Giants signed Russell Wilson to a one-year deal worth up to $21 million with $10.5 million guaranteed, making him the odds-on favorite to be under center in Week 1 for New York. It remains to be seen how long he can hold onto the job; Jameis Winston is there too, and the Giants will likely draft a quarterback. Let’s break this signing down from a fantasy perspective.
RUSSELL WILSON
- Wilson averaged 7.4 yards per attempt last season, throwing 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. His ranked 18th in EPA+CPOE composite. The Steelers were a run-heavy offense and Wilson had middling efficiency numbers. He’s a fine quarterback at this stage of his career, but he’s not going to elevate an offense.
- He also had 155 rushing yards in 11 games. He’s a below-average quarterback who no longer runs the football. That means he’s irrelevant for fantasy, even if he somehow starts 17 games.
OTHER GIANTS PLAYERS
- This isn’t the best-case scenario for Malik Nabers. The best-case scenario would have been New York trotting out Jameis Winston at QB, but that never seemed likely with Winston getting just a two-year, $8 million deal. That’s clear backup money, and unfortunately, the Wilson signing means we might not see Winston at all this year. In an ESPN article about the Wilson addition, Jordan Ranaan wrote: “The Giants are still expected to address the quarterback position in the draft, either at pick No. 3, by moving up in the back end of the first round, or on Day 2. Let’s not forget, owner John Mara made it abundantly clear the top priority this offseason was to find a quarterback of the future.” Sadly, that could mean Wilson begins the year as the starter and they hand it off to a rookie at some point. Still, Wilson is clearly more competent than Daniel Jones (and definitely better than Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock), so this is a fine development for Nabers. Fresh off gaudy target numbers — 33% target share and 0.32 targets per route run — Nabers should see improved quarterback play in 2025. The same idea applies to Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and any other WR the Giants add this offseason, just on a less fantasy-relevant basis. Improved QB play but not the ideal outcome (Jameis).
- Pittsburgh ranked second in the NFL in running back target share (23.7%) last season and Wilson’s Broncos were a runaway first in 2023. The caveat here is that PIT had a great pass-catching duo last year in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, and Sean Payton teams notoriously love throwing to the RB, but Wilson definitely inflates RB target share at this stage of his career. That’s good news for Tyrone Tracy Jr.
- Winston is the clear QB2 right now, could be the QB3 come August, and might not play at all this year. He’s not fantasy-relevant.
- Now, we’ll wait and see what the Giants do QB-wise in the draft. As Ranaan mentions, they could take one third overall, look to get a pick later in Round 1, or take one on Day 2 or later. Draft capital will drive playing-time expectations here.
