Dynasty Outlook and Profile Summary
March 11
Ashton Jeanty is our top overall player for rookie drafts and checks in as RB3 in our overall dynasty ranks. He is likely to command top-15 draft capital, and that should come with an immediate workhorse load. We know that RBs generally produce their best seasons early on in their careers. Jeanty has displayed an ability to catch the ball, and should not have to come off the field in passing situations. A comp brought up by both the scouts and the numbers is Dalvin Cook, who was a top-two fantasy RB in both 2019 and 2020.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/24) — 21.1
Experience — 3 years
Height — 68.5 inches
Weight — 21 pounds
Hand — 9.25 inches
Arm — 29.25 inches
By the Numbers
It is fair to wonder how a player of Jeanty’s caliber ended up at Boise State, but his background is incredibly unique. He grew up in Italy and did not return to the States until his sophomore year of high school. As a high school junior, he was an all-district wide receiver, replacing Marvin Mims Jr. at his Texas high school. Jeanty was simply not highly recruited out of high school.
As a true freshman, Jeanty split the Boise backfield with fourth-year (and current Seahawks UDFA) George Holani. As a sophomore, he displaced Holani as the lead back, and posted nearly 2,000 total yards with 43 catches. His 2024 season will be remembered as one of the greatest collegiate RB seasons of all time. Jeanty recorded just over 2,700 total yards, with a whopping 30 TDs.
Jeanty became just the sixth RB since 2000 to post a season with at least 6.5 YPC and 300+ attempts. The other five were:
J.K. Dobbins
Jonathan Taylor
Leonard Fournette
Melvin Gordon
Darren Sproles
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compares Jeanty to NFL legend LaDainian Tomlinson:
Jeanty plays a position that has become devalued on draft day, but his unique talent and the resurgence of the run game in the NFL should force teams to reconsider that factor when weighing his value. He’s the ultimate yardage creator, with the talent and skill set to succeed independent of the quality of his blocking. Jeanty’s speed forces linebackers to flow hard outside, creating cutback lanes and chunk runs, while his vision, balance, and elusiveness get it done along the interior. The threat of what he can do on the ground should create ideal play-action opportunities for his team, allowing his next play-caller to, say, unburden a young quarterback or any other passer being asked to shoulder too much of the offense. He’s compact and muscular, but there could be some minor concern surrounding his massive workload in 2024. This top-flight running back is capable of becoming the face of an offense in a league where the pendulum might be swinging back to the running game. Jeanty has future All-Pro talent.
Daniel Jeremiah notes Jeanty has had some issues with ball security:
Jeanty is a fun player to study. He is a short, compact runner with incredible strength, balance, and burst. He displays outstanding vision, tempo, and feel. On inside runs, the Boise State product has a unique ability to absorb and bounce off tacklers. He has quick feet and never stops driving on contact, leading to some miraculous escapes and home runs. He is rarely — if ever — tackled when presented with one-on-one situations at the second level, exhibiting the capacity to run through defenders, make them miss, or just burst by them. He isn’t polished as a route runner, but he has reliable hands and can create in space after the catch. He can identify, absorb, and wall off in pass pro. He needs to improve his ball security, having fumbled nine times over the past two seasons. Overall, Jeanty might lack ideal size, but he’s a mixture of Dalvin Cook and J.K. Dobbins as a runner.
Dane Brugler detailed Jeanty’s ability to make players miss and create long runs:
With his low center of gravity and explosiveness, Jeanty has an uncanny ability to stay afloat through contact and be elusive in space. He led the FBS this season with 151 forced missed tackles, 57 more than the No. 2 player on the list.
He trusts his vision when following his blocks, but instead of predetermining his path, he displays outstanding reactionary reads to sort, cut, and create (12 carries of 50+ yards in 2024; no other FBS player had more than five).
Draft Projection
Jeanty has an expected draft position of 11.8 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Jeanty sixth overall. Jeremiah’s most recent mock draft has Jeanty going 21st, while Brugler’s has him sixth. That appears to be his draft range at the present moment, with a lean towards the earlier side.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
I updated the models this year, and think they will deliver more accuracy long term. However, you will note that the similarity scores for some players are quite low. This is a sample sizing issue. Be sure to take note of the sim scores when utilizing the comps.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
The top end of the comps board is exactly what you would expect. Studs like Todd Gurley, Bijan Robinson, and Dalvin Cook are the kind of return fantasy owners expect from a back of this quality. It is also worth noting that Jeremiah mentioned Cook as a comp. Kenneth Walker has also had great success when he has been healthy, and while Javonte Williams hasn’t had a big season, he was the apple of many fantasy gamers’ eyes prior to injury.
The comps thin out quickly here, but that is partially due to just how rare of a player Jeanty is. In the updated models, my sample size of players to compare to is much smaller than before.
Further Research
