We’re approaching the midseason point, which means that most awards races have narrowed down to just a handful of candidates. In this column, we’ll discuss a few value options with realistic paths to winning their respective race. Then, we’ll discuss a few key points in various awards markets. We’ll also discuss various races like the Offensive Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year markets on our awards show later this week.
MVP: Josh Allen (+1200 to +1500 Caesars)
The MVP race still has seven quarterbacks with a realistic path to victory with half the season left. That said, Allen is second in the NFL in passing touchdowns, total EPA, fifth in rating, and first in QBR for the 5-3 Bills. When isolating the numbers that seem to matter the most for MVP voters, Allen and Tua Tagovailoa have laid the best MVP foundations to this point.
OROY: Jahmyr Gibbs (+1000 to +1600 BetMGM)
I have some bad news for you C.J. Stroud (-175) backers: His production has been trending down for three consecutive weeks. He’s thrown for less than 200 yards in each of the last two games. He’s more vulnerable to a surging skill-position player on a competitive team than most think. Now, there are three things you need to know before considering a Gibbs bet. The first is Detroit enters their bye week in Week 8, so Gibbs’ OROY odds may actually be more appealing a week from now. Second, David Montgomery will likely return to action after the Lions’ bye. Once he does, Detroit’s backfield likely becomes a split. Third, Bijan Robinson’s fate is in the hands of a madman, but he has a minor production edge on Gibbs heading into Week 9.
OPOY: A.J. Brown (+600 to +1000 DraftKings)
This race boils down to four skill-position players: Tyreek Hill (+125), Christian McCaffrey (+125), Ja’Marr Chase (+2500), and Brown, who has been on an absolute tear. The Eagles’ schedule gets much tougher from here, which could actually be a good thing for pass volume in Philadelphia. Hill and McCaffrey are going to be tough to beat, but both Brown and Chase still have paths.
DPOY: The other Josh Allen (+4500 to +10000 DraftKings, BetMGM)
Allen is currently second in the league in sacks (9) for the 6-2 Jaguars. Allen is a former seventh overall pick that is well-positioned to lead the league in sacks for a contending team. In most DPOY races, that’s the combination you’re looking for. If I were an oddsmaker, I’d have Allen listed in the 15-1 range. It’s absurd that you can get him at 100-1 type odds at this juncture.
MVP Notes
Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are both just behind Tua in the MVP race at +400 odds. Mahomes is the current leader in total EPA and has generally laid a better MVP foundation than Hurts. Mahomes gets a European showcase against Miami this Sunday. The winning quarterback of that game will enter Week 10 as the consensus favorite in MVP markets. The Eagles’ schedule gets tougher from here, starting with a date with Dallas this week. That could hurt the Eagles in the win-loss column, but it could be a positive for Hurts’ production.
Lamar Jackson (+550) is currently fourth in the MVP race. Jackson is a former winner of the award, but he’s way off the pace in most statistical categories that matter in this race. Keep in mind that Jackson has thrown for less than 200 passing yards in three games this year, only topping 250 once. Passing yards aren’t a major factor in the MVP race, but Jackson has to make up a lot of ground in a lot of categories.
Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow both have MVP odds in the 20-1 range, making them both strong mid-range long shots with a path to winning. For Lawrence, his Jaguars have the easiest schedule and thus the easiest path to the top seed in the conference. In each of the last two years, Burrow has surged late to become a factor in the MVP race.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Notes
Jalen Carter (-160) and Devon Witherspoon (+200) have been the only true DROY contenders in betting markets for weeks. After a massive primetime game against the Giants, Witherspoon hasn’t had a splash play since. Carter has had a quiet couple of weeks himself. Despite the odds on these two favorites, no rookie defender has created an insurmountable lead just yet.
Defensive Player of the Year Notes
Myles Garrett (+200) and T.J. Watt (+250) both have 8.5 sacks for teams that may not make the playoffs. In the case of Watt, if the season ended today, he’d probably be the runaway winner of this race if the Steelers were more of a contending team. Micah Parsons (+600) has already had his bye and the Cowboys are a contender, but he only has six sacks to this point in the season.
