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Whenever you’re betting in an NFL awards market, keep in mind that it does not matter who you think will win. What matters is who are awards voters are going to vote for and why. In this year’s Who Wins and Why awards market analysis, we are looking back at the winners from the past 10 years in search of any patterns we can apply to our betting process. Let’s jump right in.

 

MVP

Year Player Team Record Seed Pass Comp% TD Rush TD Rate QBR EPA Odds
2022 Patrick Mahomes KC 14-3 1 1st 7th 1st 62nd 36th 2nd 1st 1st +800
2021 Aaron Rodgers GB 13-4 1 10th 3rd 4th 129th 49th 1st 1st 5th +1000
2020 Aaron Rodgers GB 13-3 1 7th 1st 1st 108th T51 1st 1st 3rd +3000
2019 Lamar Jackson BAL 14-2 1 22nd T8 1st 6th 14th 3rd 1st 1st +4000
2018 Patrick Mahomes KC 12-4 1 2nd 16th 1st 70th T62 2nd 1st 1st +3500
2017 Tom Brady NE 13-3 1 1st 5th 3rd 170th

3rd 3rd 1st +400
2016 Matt Ryan ATL 11-5 2 2nd 3rd 2nd 108th

1st 1st 2nd +7500
2015 Cam Newton CAR 15-1 1 16th 28th T2 31st T2 8th 11th 5th +5200
2014 Aaron Rodgers GB 12-4 2 7th 9th 3rd 71st T51 2nd 2nd 3rd +600
2013 Peyton Manning DEN 13-3 1 1st 3rd 1st 307th T84 2nd 1st 1st +600

 

MVP Takeaways

  • Over the last 10 years, every NFL MVP has been a quarterback.
  • Eight of those 10 quarterbacks played for the No. 1 seed in their conference.
  • The other two played for the second seed.
  • Each of those 10 MVPs finished within the top four in the league in touchdown passes.
  • Nine of them were in the top three, while seven of them were in the top two.
  • Aside from Cam Newton’s 2015 MVP run, the other nine were top three in QBR and rating.
  • Each of those 10 quarterbacks finished within the top five in EPA.
  • Eight of those 10 quarterbacks finished within the top three in EPA.
  • Standard numbers like rushing yards, passing yards, completion percentage, or anything related to interceptions have been inconsistent factors among recent MVP winners.
  • Half of those 10 quarterbacks had +3000 or longer MVP odds entering the season.
  • The other five opened the year as favorites with +1000 odds or less.
  • Peyton Manning (5), Aaron Rodgers (4), Tom Brady (3), and now Patrick Mahomes (2) have each won multiple MVPs.
  • Those four quarterbacks have collectively won seven of the last 10 MVP awards.
  • Brady is the only MVP winner since Rich Gannon (2002) that was not taken in the first round.
  • Carson Wentz “probably” wins the 2017 MVP if he doesn’t miss the final three games of the regular season due to injury.
  • Adrian Peterson (2012) is the last non-quarterback to win the NFL MVP.

 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Year Player Team Pos Round Pick Pass TD Int Rush TD Rec Yards TD Odds
2022 Garrett Wilson NYJ WR 1st 10th

83 1103 4 +2000
2021 Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR 1st 5th

81 1455 13 +1300
2020 Justin Herbert LAC QB 1st 6th   4,336 31 10 234 5

+800
2019 Kyler Murray ARI QB 1st 1st   3,772 20 12 544 4

+150
2018 Saquon Barkley NYG RB 1st 2nd

1307 11 91 721 4 +155
2017 Alvin Kamara NO RB 3rd 67th

728 8 81 826 5 +5000
2016 Dak Prescott DAL QB 4th 135th   3,667 23 4 282 6

+900
2015 Todd Gurley STL RB 1st 10th

1106 10 21 188 0 +1350
2014 Odell Beckham NYG WR 1st 12th

35 0 91 1305 12 +2500
2013 Eddie Lacy GB RB 2nd 61st

1178 11 35 257 0 +800

 

Offensive Rookie of the Year Takeaways

  • Over the last 10 years, three quarterbacks, four running backs, and three wide receivers have won the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY).
  • Seven of the last 10 players to win OROY were first-round picks, including each of the last five.
  • Each of the last five OROY winners were taken within the top 10 picks in the NFL Draft.
  • Justin Herbert, Ja’Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, and Odell Beckham Jr. each had historically relevant rookie campaigns.
  • Five of the last 10 OPOY winners were favorites with +900 odds or less.
  • Four others were mid-range longshots between +1300 and +2500 odds.
  • Alvin Kamara is the only true longshot of this group entering the year with +5000 odds.

 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Year Player Team Pos Round Pick Record Tackle TFL Sack Int FF FR TD PD Odds
2022 Sauce Gardner NYJ CB 1st 4th 7-10

75

3

0

2

0

0

0

20

+1400
2021 Micah Parsons DAL LB 1st 12th 12-5 84 20 13 0 3 0 0 3 +450
2020 Chase Young WAS Edge 1st 2nd 7-9 44 13 7.5 0 4 3 0 4 +300
2019 Nick Bosa SF Edge 1st 2nd 13-3 47 16 9 1 1 2 0 2 +700
2018 Darius Leonard IND LB 2nd 36th 10-6 163 12 7 2 4 2 0 8 +3050
2017 Marshon Lattimore NO CB 1st 11th 11-5 52 1 0 5 1 1 1 18 +1200
2016 Joey Bosa SD Edge 1st 3rd 5-11 41 17 10.5 0 1 0 0 0 +400
2015 Marcus Peters KC CB 1st 18th 11-5 60 2 0 8 1 0 2 26 +3500
2014 Aaron Donald STL DL 1st 13th 6-10 48 18 9 0 2 0 0 1 +900
2013 Sheldon Richardson NYJ DL 1st 13th 8-8 78 12 3.5 0 1 0 0 1 +2000

 

Defensive Rookie of the Year Takeaways

  • Over the last 10 years, three cornerbacks, one linebacker, two interior defensive linemen, three edge rushers, and the hybrid unicorn Micah Parsons have won the Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY).
  • Six of those 10 DROY winners could be classified as pass rushers.
  • Colts linebacker Darius Leonard (now Shaquille) is the only member of that group that wasn’t selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.
  • Four of those DROY winners were selected within the first five picks, including three of the last four DROY winners.
  • Just five of the last 10 DROY winners played for teams that finished the season with a winning record.
  • Last year’s winner, Sauce Gardner, did not have a notable amount of splash plays (forced turnovers, sacks), which is rare for DROY winners.
  • That could signal that advanced metrics are starting to play a bigger role in some secondary awards markets.
  • In the last 10 years, there have only been two DROY winners that entered the season as true longshots.
  • Five of the last 10 DROY winners had +900 odds or less.
  • Seven of them had +1400 odds or less.
  • Three of the last four DROY winners were first-round pass rushers with +700 odds or less.

 

Defensive Player of the Year

Year Player Team Pos Record PA Tkl TFL Sack Int FF FR TD PD Odds
2022 Nick Bosa SF Edge 13-4 1st 51 19 18.5 0 2 0 0 1 +1500
2021 T.J. Watt PIT Edge 9-7-1 20th 64 21 22.5 0 5 3 0 7 +750
2020 Aaron Donald LAR DL 10-6 2nd 45 20 13.5 0 4 1 0 1 +500
2019 Stephon Gilmore NE CB 12-4 1st 53 0 0 6 0 1 2 20 +8000
2018 Aaron Donald LAR DL 13-3 20th 59 25 20.5 0 4 2 0 1 +590
2017 Aaron Donald LAR DL 11-5 12th 41 15 11 0 5 1 0 1 +1400
2016 Khalil Mack OAK Edge 12-4 20th 73 14 11 1 5 3 0 3 +650
2015 J.J. Watt HOU DL 9-7 8th 76 29 17.5 0 3 1 0 8 +150
2014 J.J. Watt HOU DL 9-7 7th 78 29 20.5 1 4 5 2 10 +550
2013 Luke Kuechly CAR LB 12-4 2nd 156 10 2 4 0 0 0 7 +800

 

Defensive Player of the Year Takeaways

  • Eight of the last 10 Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) winners were primarily pass rushers.
  • Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt have collectively won five of the past 10 DPOY awards.
  • Each of the last 10 DPOY winners were first-round picks.
  • Each of the last 10 DPOY winners played for teams with winning records.
  • Five of the last 10 DPOY winners played for teams that won at least 12 games.
  • Four of the last 10 DPOY winners played for top-two scoring defenses, including three of the last four DPOY winners.
  • The two non-pass rushers to win the DPOY in the last 10 years both played for top-two scoring defenses.

 

Comeback Player of the Year

Year Player Pos Team Record Adversity
2022 Geno Smith QB SEA 9-8 Poor Performance
2021 Joe Borrow QB CIN 10-7** Injury
2020 Alex Smith QB WAS 7-9** Injury
2019 Ryan Tannehill QB TEN 9-7* Injury
2018 Andrew Luck QB IND 10-6* Injury
2017 Keenan Allen WR LAC 9-7 Injury
2016 Jordy Nelson WR GB 10-6** Injury
2015 Eric Berry S KC 11-5* Cancer
2014 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 12-4*** Injury
2013 Philip Rivers QB LAC 9-7* Poor Performance
Key
* Wild Card
** Division Winner
*** No. 1 Seed

 

Comeback Player of the Year Takeaways

  • In the past 10 years, six quarterbacks, two wide receivers, one tight end, and one safety have won the Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY).
  • The last five CPOY winners were all quarterbacks.
  • Seven of the last 10 CPOY winners were coming off an injury.
  • Safety Eric Berry beat cancer, Philip Rivers was coming off a down year, and Geno Smith spent nine years as either a backup or a struggling starter before his CPOY win.
  • Nine of the last 10 CPOY winners played for teams with winning records.
  • The lone exception, Alex Smith, played for a 7-9 Washington team that won the NFC East.
  • Nine of the last 10 CPOY winners played for teams that made the playoffs.
  • Smith and Ryan Tannehill were both signed as backups, playing for a new team the year they won CPOY.
  • Garrison Hearst was the last running back to win CPOY, back in 2001.

 

Coach of the Year

Year Coach Team Record W Total Total Diff Prev Record W Diff Notes
2022 Brian Daboll NYG 9-7-1 7.5 1.5 4-13 5 1st-Time Winner*
2021 Mike Vrabel TEN 12-5 9 3 11-5 1 1st-Time Winner
2020 Kevin Stefanski CLE 11-5 8.5 2.5 6-10 5 1st-Time Winner*
2019 John Harbaugh BAL 14-2 8.5 5.5 10-6 4 1st-Time Winner
2018 Matt Nagy CHI 12-4 6.5 5.5 5-11 7 1st-Time Winner*
2017 Sean McVay LAR 11-5 5.5 5.5 4-12 7 1st-Time Winner*
2016 Jason Garrett DAL 13-3 9.5 3.5 5-11 8 1st-Time Winner
2015 Ron Rivera CAR 15-1 8.5 6.5 7-8-1 8 2nd-Time Winner
2014 Bruce Arians ARI 11-5 7.5 3.5 10-6 1 2nd-Time Winner
2013 Ron Rivera CAR 12-4 7 5 7-9 5 1st-Time Winner
Key
* 1st-Year Head Coach
** Interim Head Coach

 

Coach of the Year Takeaways

  • Nine of the last 10 Coach of the Year (COY) winners won at least 11 games. Last year’s winner, Brian Daboll, is the lone exception among that group.
  • Seven of the last 10 COY winners beat their preseason win total by at least 3.5 games.
  • The three COY winners among this group that didn’t were the last three COY winners.
  • Seven of the last 10 COY winners coached a team that had a losing record the previous season.
  • Eight of the last 10 COY winners won at least four more games than their team did the previous season.
  • Eight of the last 10 COY winners were first-time COY winners.
  • Four of the last 10 COY winners were first-time head coaches.