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Whenever you’re betting in an NFL awards market, keep in mind that it does not matter who you think will win. What matters is who are awards voters are going to vote for and why. In this year’s Who Wins and Why awards market analysis, we are looking back at the winners from the past 10 years in search of any patterns we can apply to our betting process. Let’s jump right in.



Year Player Team Record Seed Pass Comp% TD Rush TD Rate QBR EPA Odds
2022 Patrick Mahomes KC 14-3 1 1st 7th 1st 62nd 36th 2nd 1st 1st +800
2021 Aaron Rodgers GB 13-4 1 10th 3rd 4th 129th 49th 1st 1st 5th +1000
2020 Aaron Rodgers GB 13-3 1 7th 1st 1st 108th T51 1st 1st 3rd +3000
2019 Lamar Jackson BAL 14-2 1 22nd T8 1st 6th 14th 3rd 1st 1st +4000
2018 Patrick Mahomes KC 12-4 1 2nd 16th 1st 70th T62 2nd 1st 1st +3500
2017 Tom Brady NE 13-3 1 1st 5th 3rd 170th

3rd 3rd 1st +400
2016 Matt Ryan ATL 11-5 2 2nd 3rd 2nd 108th

1st 1st 2nd +7500
2015 Cam Newton CAR 15-1 1 16th 28th T2 31st T2 8th 11th 5th +5200
2014 Aaron Rodgers GB 12-4 2 7th 9th 3rd 71st T51 2nd 2nd 3rd +600
2013 Peyton Manning DEN 13-3 1 1st 3rd 1st 307th T84 2nd 1st 1st +600


MVP Takeaways

  • Over the last 10 years, every NFL MVP has been a quarterback.
  • Eight of those 10 quarterbacks played for the No. 1 seed in their conference.
  • The other two played for the second seed.
  • Each of those 10 MVPs finished within the top four in the league in touchdown passes.
  • Nine of them were in the top three, while seven of them were in the top two.
  • Aside from Cam Newton’s 2015 MVP run, the other nine were top three in QBR and rating.
  • Each of those 10 quarterbacks finished within the top five in EPA.
  • Eight of those 10 quarterbacks finished within the top three in EPA.
  • Standard numbers like rushing yards, passing yards, completion percentage, or anything related to interceptions have been inconsistent factors among recent MVP winners.
  • Half of those 10 quarterbacks had +3000 or longer MVP odds entering the season.
  • The other five opened the year as favorites with +1000 odds or less.
  • Peyton Manning (5), Aaron Rodgers (4), Tom Brady (3), and now Patrick Mahomes (2) have each won multiple MVPs.
  • Those four quarterbacks have collectively won seven of the last 10 MVP awards.
  • Brady is the only MVP winner since Rich Gannon (2002) that was not taken in the first round.
  • Carson Wentz “probably” wins the 2017 MVP if he doesn’t miss the final three games of the regular season due to injury.
  • Adrian Peterson (2012) is the last non-quarterback to win the NFL MVP.


Offensive Rookie of the Year

Year Player Team Pos Round Pick Pass TD Int Rush TD Rec Yards TD Odds
2022 Garrett Wilson NYJ WR 1st 10th

83 1103 4 +2000
2021 Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR 1st 5th

81 1455 13 +1300
2020 Justin Herbert LAC QB 1st 6th   4,336 31 10 234 5

2019 Kyler Murray ARI QB 1st 1st   3,772 20 12 544 4

2018 Saquon Barkley NYG RB 1st 2nd

1307 11 91 721 4 +155
2017 Alvin Kamara NO RB 3rd 67th

728 8 81 826 5 +5000
2016 Dak Prescott DAL QB 4th 135th   3,667 23 4 282 6

2015 Todd Gurley STL RB 1st 10th

1106 10 21 188 0 +1350
2014 Odell Beckham NYG WR 1st 12th

35 0 91 1305 12 +2500
2013 Eddie Lacy GB RB 2nd 61st

1178 11 35 257 0 +800


Offensive Rookie of the Year Takeaways

  • Over the last 10 years, three quarterbacks, four running backs, and three wide receivers have won the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY).
  • Seven of the last 10 players to win OROY were first-round picks, including each of the last five.
  • Each of the last five OROY winners were taken within the top 10 picks in the NFL Draft.
  • Justin Herbert, Ja’Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, and Odell Beckham Jr. each had historically relevant rookie campaigns.
  • Five of the last 10 OPOY winners were favorites with +900 odds or less.
  • Four others were mid-range longshots between +1300 and +2500 odds.
  • Alvin Kamara is the only true longshot of this group entering the year with +5000 odds.

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