Dynasty Outlook
March 26
Bo Nix is our QB5 for rookie drafts and checks in as QB27 in our overall dynasty ranks. He has a wide draft range that could see a team like Denver reach for him as early as pick 12, but he more than likely falls into the latter stages of Day 1 or Day 2. This archetype of player has traditionally not been super valuable for fantasy, but Nix does have some scrambling ability that could lead to points with his legs. And while five-year QBs have not performed well lately in the NFL, the cost to acquire Nix figures to be far less than for Kenny Pickett two years ago. At a mid-second-round price, Nix could certainly end up being palatable.
Profile Summary
Nix is an experienced QB with the toughness and leadership qualities that teams seem to love. He does not make a ton of mistakes, but he also does not create a lot of explosives on his own. Nix has the ability to scramble when need be. His draft range will not guarantee playing time right away, but there is definite game-manager potential at the next level.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 23.9
Experience — 5 years
Height — 74.125 inches
Weight — 214 pounds
Hand — 10.13 inches
Arm — 30.88 inches
By the Numbers
Nix is a five-year player with 61 collegiate starts — the most in NCAA history. These are all of the QBs since 2005 to play for five seasons and be drafted between picks 16 and 48 — a rough estimation of Nix’s draft range:
Jason Campbell
Drew Stanton
Pat White
Andy Dalton
Colin Kaepernick
E.J. Manuel
Derek Carr
Kenny Pickett
Will Levis
This has not been a successful sample group, with no fantasy hits and only two long-term starters (we’ll see on Levis).
Nix started with Auburn, playing for three different coaches in his three seasons there. There was not a ton of receiving talent at Auburn. His first two years, the top receivers were Anthony Schwartz and Seth Williams, who you may have heard of, but they have done nothing in the NFL. The 2021 Auburn team had zero NFL receiving options.
As a result, it isn’t terribly surprising that Nix did not have a ton of success. Though he had a career 59.4% completion rate at Auburn, PFF credits him with a 70% adjusted completion rate — which takes into account things like WR drops. It is likely that Nix’s Auburn career isn’t quite as bad as it seems.
Then Nix transferred to Oregon, where he was positively excellent. In his two years with the Ducks, he completed 75% of his passes, with 10.4 AYA. His final season — one in which he threw 45 TDs to just three INTs — was good enough to finish third in the Heisman standings.
Overall, Nix’s statistical profile says he is good at avoiding mistakes. He has a career turnover-worthy play percentage of 2.6 according to PFF — with a number as low as 1% in his final season. His career pressure-to-sack rate is 11.6%, lowest of the top five passers in this class. Unfortunately, Nix’s numbers also describe him as someone who does not make a ton of explosive plays on his own. His career big-time throw rate is just 4.3% — lowest of the potential first-round QBs.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compares Nix to Tony Romo:
Rare five-year starting quarterback whose play has matured in front of our eyes. Nix displays the accuracy, arm talent, and athleticism consistent with today’s brand of pro quarterback. He can be punctual in getting the ball out at the top of his drop, or he can work through progressions and beat defenses with second-reaction plays. He throws with good velocity and puts the ball on the money when throwing on the move. Nix has shown great improvement with his pocket poise. He’s capable of moving the sticks as a scrambler or as part of the running game. Some of his gaudy production has been driven by the Oregon offense’s design, but his talent clearly stands out. I’ve harbored bias from watching the overwhelmed version of Nix during his Auburn days, but as the saying goes, “Tape don’t lie.” Nix appears more than ready to attack the league with an NFL-caliber skill set.
Daniel Jeremiah compared Nix to Jalen Hurts from a mental standpoint:
Nix is an experienced quarterback (61 starts at Oregon and Auburn) with outstanding accuracy and toughness. He has average height and a thick/sturdy frame. He is at his best in the quick-rhythm passing game. He has quick feet in his setup, scans the field with urgency, and accurately delivers the ball. He has a compact release and generates velocity to drive the ball to all three levels. He shows touch to layer the ball over linebackers and under safeties. He is accurate on designed rollouts. He does need to improve habits under duress, though, as he occasionally fails to feel back-side run-throughs and also falls off some throws when faced with interior pressure. He’s an urgent athlete and is effective as a runner, especially on zone reads. His coaches rave about his leadership and toughness. Overall, Nix’s combination of competitiveness, intelligence, and experience reminds me of Jalen Hurts coming out of college.
Dane Brugler illuminated Nix’s scrambling ability:
Although he benefited from an offense designed to get the ball out quickly, Nix broke the FBS record for single-season completion percentage (77.4) and connected on at least 71% of his passes in all 14 games.
He gets in trouble when he plays loose with his technique and his eyes speed up on him, but Nix has a good arm, understands where to go with the football, and his scrambling can give defenses fits.
Draft Projection
Nix has an expected draft position of 15.0 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Nix 32nd overall. Jeremiah did not have Nix in his most recent mock, and neither did Brugler’s. Nix appears to have a wide range from somewhere in the mid-first round to second round of the draft.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Nix’s age gains him comps to Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and Mitch Trubisky, but they were top-two picks — a level Nix is not going to reach. Ryan Finley, Will Grier, and Clayton Tune never became starters, and likely went far later than Nix will. It is easy to see that finding comps for Nix is quite a difficult exercise overall.
Kenny Pickett, Geno Smith, Jimmy Clausen, and John Beck best fit the mold of player that Nix is entering the NFL. Unfortunately, none of them were hits. Smith had a short spurt early in his career being usable for fantasy, and now is in the middle of a second-career revival. The rest were stone busts.
