CFB DFS Top Plays: Week 12 – Saturday Night

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

Looking for a DFS Optimizer? ETR has partnered with The SOLVER and FantasyLabs to provide multiple options to our subscribers. Make sure to get the best price and ETR projections synced with the product by signing up directly through our links: The SOLVER, FantasyLabs.

Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership.

These are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

QUARTERBACK

Rocco Becht (ISU – DK $6,900) – This slate is loaded up at RB but leaves a lot to be desired at QB. With no QB projecting for more than 26 points, there is a big group of QBs all projected within five or so points of each other, so there is no standout option. Given that framework, it makes sense to save some at the position and also prioritize stacking even more. Becht is only $6,900 and has a stacking partner with the highest-projected WR on the slate in Jayden Higgins. Cincinnati is middle of the pack in pass defense, allowing 229.5 passing YPG, but those numbers have been bolstered by UH, ASU without their starting QB, and UCF with a running QB in Jacurri Brown. Pittsburgh, Miami (OH), and Colorado all threw it well on this defense with each QB topping 300 passing yards, and Becht has seen an uptick in volume in recent weeks, as ISU’s defense is not playing well right now, which has led to some high-scoring games. GPP Recommendation: 1 to 2 pass catchers in stack.