CFB DFS Top Plays: Week 14 (Saturday Main)

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

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Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. These are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.”

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

QUARTERBACK

Diego Pavia (VAND – DK $9,600, FD $12,200) – Pavia just continues to nuke slates, as he’s piled up 40.9, 50.3, and 52.2 DraftKings points over his last three games. He’s still getting Heisman mention and Vanderbilt still has slim hopes at a playoff spot, so they’ll be going all out in a rivalry game against Tennessee. The Vols have provided a great atmosphere for DFS output, as they have been very good offensively and play at a very fast pace (fifth in plays per minute), but they have also been very leaky defensively. They are allowing 255.6 passing yards per game (112th) and almost 400 total yards per game, and they’ve also struggled to contain the legs of the dual threats they have faced, such as Gunner Stockton, Taylen Green, and John Mateer, who have all scored rushing TDs against them.