CFB Large-Field GPP Breakdown: Week 13

If you’re a fellow LSU fan, you are not having a great time right now. The Tigers lost to Florida on Saturday, putting the nail in the coffin on their season. Ever since the Week 9 beatdown at Texas A&M, the season has fallen off of a cliff for Brian Kelly.

To make matters worse, on Thursday it was announced that ESPN No. 1 overall high school football recruit QB Bryce Underwood switched his commitment from LSU to Michigan. Talk about kicking someone when they’re already down. At least we still have Livvy Dunne.

Week 12 Recap

• The story of Week 12 was Louisville RB Isaac Brown. He was the highest-owned player of the slate (55%) and got hurt a couple of plays into the Cardinals’ game against Stanford. There’s nothing you can do about injuries in any sport. It’s not like because Brown got hurt he was a bad play. It definitely put some salt in the wound that his replacement, Duke Watson, came in and ran for three touchdowns. It’s not tilting at all. I haven’t thought about it one bit. Ok, maybe just once or twice.
• Speaking of chalk RBs, Makhi Hughes was 45% owned and only put up 21 fantasy points. It might not seem like a terrible performance, but when a player is that owned and only puts up 3x their salary, it’s not great. The process behind the play was not flawed. Hughes was guaranteed the most volume of any RB on the slate; he just didn’t hit the 100-yard rushing bonus and didn’t run great with TD variance.
• I nailed my game-stacking the Baylor-West Virginia game last week. However, I did not have nearly enough of Baylor RB Bryce Washington. He broke the slate with 50 fantasy points. Garrett Greene definitely did his part, accounting for 44 fantasy points. If you had both of them in your lineup, you probably had a sweat going in GPPs.
• The winner in the $50,000-to-first GPP did in fact have Washington and Greene in the lineup. They also had Baylor signal-caller Sawyer Robertson, who I thought was going to have a huge game, but the Bears just ran it down West Virginia’s throats in the second half. The lineup also had ceiling performances from Antonio Williams and min-priced WR Drelon Miller from Colorado. The highest-owned player in the lineup was 23%. On a week where plenty of the chalk busted, it’s not surprising that a lineup with less than 100% ownership took home the top prize.

Week 13 Preview

• DraftKings’ 12-game main slate is definitely the toughest pricing they have had all season. There are no glaring pricing errors and there’s a group of elite RBs that are all expensive. This also might be one of the most spread-out ownership weeks of the season. Currently, we don’t have anyone projected to be over 40%.
• From a game-total perspective, this is the best set of the year. Nine of the 12 games have totals of at least 50 points, and three games have totals of 60+. There are a bunch of great game environments and plenty of situations where you can find some low-owned value plays that have the potential to post ceiling performances.

Expected Chalk, How to Play It

Jaheim White, DK Price: $4,600