DFS Top Plays: Week 7

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 619 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

For more tournament content, check out our projections, Gary Hartman’s GPP Leverage Article, and Saturday’s Establish The Million show with Mike Leone, Adam Levitan, and Gary Hartman.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes II ($8,300 DK, $9,200 FD) – It’s expensive to go there, but Mahomes gets a fantastic matchup with a Chargers team that has given up DraftKings scores of 32.1 to Tua Tagovailoa, 21.0 to Ryan Tannehill, 29.6 to Kirk Cousins, and 24.8 to Dak Prescott. He has the best floor/ceiling combo of any QB on this slate.

Geno Smith ($6,000 DK, $7,000 FD) –  It seems the mid-tier and cheap QB tier will project well once again and that starts with Smith at $6K on DraftKings, who gets an attractive home matchup with the Cardinals. At 26.5, the Seahawks have the second-highest implied total on Sunday’s main slate.

Jordan Love ($5,800 DK, $7,800 FD) – Coming off of a bye, Jordan Love isn’t only expected to have a fully healthy arsenal of weapons with Aaron Jones and Christian Watson ready to go, but he also gets the friendliest matchup of the season so far against a Broncos defense that has been disgraceful, ranking dead last in defensive DVOA. If you need some salary saving, however, you can consider Russell Wilson on the other side of this matchup, as they have similar floor cases.

RUNNING BACK

Josh Jacobs ($7,400 DK, $8,000 FD) – On the season, Josh Jacobs has accounted for 76% of the Raiders’ team rushing attempts, while playing on 78.6% of all snaps. He also owns a respectable 17.2% season-long target share. The matchup this week with Chicago is a good one. The Bears are improving in their base run defense (have only given up 2.48 YPC over the past two weeks), however, they are also averaging 6/61/0.67 per game through the air to opposing backs. All in all, Jacobs should have a great floor with his elite role.

Kenneth Walker III ($7,000 DK, $8,800 FD) – Walker, like Geno Smith and most of the main Seattle skill-position players, profiles very well this week. KWIII has been able to fend off Zach Charbonnet in both role and high-value touches, having out-carried the rookie 83 to 23 this season, while leading in touchdowns 6 to 0. Throw in a great matchup with the Cardinals, and Walker should be in prime position for both a floor and ceiling this week.

Isiah Pacheco ($6,100 DK, $7,400 FD) – Pacheco is arguably too cheap on both sites for his current role. In addition to dominating the Chiefs’ backfield touches (he has accounted for 70.2% of all Chiefs RB carries), Pacheco has debuted some pass-catching chops in this offense, earning a target share of 15.8% last week. In what is the slate’s highest game total (49 points), Pacheco should have a chance to shine.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300 DK, $6,200 FD) – We’re assuming a pretty full role for Gibbs, who took over David Montgomery’s base-down work the last time Monty missed in Week 3. In that contest, Gibbs carried the ball 17 times for 80 yards, but he only earned one target. If Gibbs handles similar base-down work, while the Lions let his pass-catching chops also shine, Gibbs may be in store for a big week.

WIDE RECEIVER

Cooper Kupp ($9,500 DK, $9,700 FD) – It did not take long for Cooper Kupp to see his prices climb back up to where they were in his record-setting 2021 season, but you can’t blame the DK and FD price makers. Kupp has been dominant in his two games since coming off of I.R., earning target shares of 47.3% in Week 6 and 37.1% in Week 5. His matchup with the Steelers this week is not at all daunting, as they gave up lines of 8/129/2 to Brandon Aiyuk, 13/172/2 to Davante Adams, and 7/168/2 to Nico Collins. Kupp has the highest floor and ceiling of any WR on this slate.

Keenan Allen ($8,600 DK, $9,200 FD) – While an argument can be made that the return of Austin Ekeler impacts Keenan Allen’s long-term ceiling, Week 6 proved that it does not impact his floor, as he still was able to earn his way to a classic 7/85/1 line on 11 targets. It’s not an easy matchup with Kansas City, but the volume should be there, making him a strong cash play on DraftKings in particular.

Marquise Brown ($5,300 DK, $6,700 FD) – Hollywood Brown has earned that name so far this season, as a model of consistency. We’re still waiting on a massive game, but he’s been over double-digit targets in four of six games this season and gets a Seattle matchup in which game script should work in his favor. Seattle has been gashed by other No. 1 WRs this season, including huge games for Adam Thielen and Puka Nacua and a solid game for Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,800 DK, $5,600 FD) – Wan’Dale once again appears as a prime spend-down option this week, as the second-year slot man has a strong 22.2% target share over the last three weeks, setting up a very solid floor in a good matchup.

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce ($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD) – He’s by far the most expensive TE on the week ($2,300 more expensive than Mark Andrews on DraftKings and $1,600 more on FanDuel), but he also has the highest base TE projection by over six points, and the highest ceiling projection by over 10 on DraftKings.

Mark Andrews ($5,700 DK, $6,900 FD) – While still expensive for a TE, Andrews is arguably too cheap for what his floor and ceiling are in a matchup that could be sneaky at home versus Detroit. He’ll also come with less ownership than both of the players he’s sandwiched between on this list in Kelce and Luke Musgrave.

Luke Musgrave ($3,300 DK, $5,000 FD) – Musgrave continues to have a friendly price tag, as we await a breakout game from the talented rookie out of Oregon State. His matchup with the Broncos should be a good one, as they have given up big games to both Travis Kelce and Cole Kmet recently.

DEFENSE

New York Giants ($3,000 DK, $3,400) – New York’s defense came alive in Week 6, with 17 QB hurries on Josh Allen. This week, they get a Commanders team led by Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in sacks taken with 34.