Dynasty Outlook
April 4
Drake Maye is our QB3 for rookie drafts and checks in as QB12 in our overall dynasty ranks. One thing is consistent when looking at Maye’s profile: a wide range of outcomes. The scouts believe it, the surface-level statistical comps display it, and the higher-level statistical comps confirm it. Maye certainly comes with risks, but he is a worthwhile gamble based on what you win if you get it right. Maye has excellent size and athleticism, and could very well be one of the more proficient runners at the position in terms of TDs. That he ranks third for us speaks more to the quality of this class than any deficiencies in his profile.
Profile Summary
Maye appears to be the QB this cycle that has been overthought by the media at large. While he has been criticized publicly for inconsistencies in his game, it is clear that the scouts still believe he has all the makings of a top QB. That isn’t to say that he is a lock to succeed — the comps at every level display a wide range of outcomes — but we know that NFL teams typically strive for ceiling at the game’s most important position.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 21.4
Experience — 3 years
Height — 76.375 inches
Weight — 223 pounds
Hand — 9.13 inches
Arm — 32.23 inches
By the Numbers
Maye rode the bench as a true freshman, sitting behind upperclassman Sam Howell who was coming off of a fantastic 2020 season. But he burst onto the scene in a massive way his sophomore year. Maye threw for over 4,300 yards with 38 TDs and seven INTs. He also was the team’s leading rusher.
A lot of changes took place at UNC prior to Maye’s final season. Phil Longo left the program for Wisconsin, and was replaced by Chip Lindsey. Josh Downs also left for the NFL. Devontez Walker transferred in from Kent State. Maye regressed in basically every category: He threw it less often, was less efficient, threw less TDs, threw more INTs, and produced less rushing yards.
There are still plenty of positives in Maye’s statistical profile. He has an 8.1% career big-time throw rate according to PFF. That number is by far the highest of the top QBs in this class. He also has a lower pressure-to-sack rate than both Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. He also offers prototypical size, something the other QBs can’t offer. Here are first-round QBs since 2005 to be at least 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds:
Jason Campbell
Vince Young
Matt Leinart
JaMarcus Russell
Matt Ryan
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Cam Newton
Blaine Gabbert
Andrew Luck
E.J. Manuel
Blake Bortles
Paxton Lynch
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Daniel Jones
Justin Herbert
This is a list with a wide range of outcomes, but it is easy to see why teams like selecting players in the upper height and weight ranges. Some of the best players in the league are on this list.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein describes Maye as boom or bust:
Challenging evaluation with top-flight measurables and tools but inconsistencies that create a lower floor. Maye’s size and arm talent jump off the tape immediately. He can make every throw, but he will try to make throws that he shouldn’t have attempted. The gunslinger mentality creates a fearlessness that can turn into interceptions, but it will also allow him to win in tight windows and make splash throws that get crowds (and evaluators) on their feet. He leaves too many throws on the back shoulder or hip and needs to learn when to take some sauce off the throw to make it more catchable. There is an undeniable energy to Maye’s game that can create momentum or turn chaotic when plays come off-schedule for him. The combination of traits and tape make him a boom-bust prospect who might need patient management and coaching to help shepherd him toward his potential.
Daniel Jeremiah noted that Maye’s pass protection was lacking at UNC:
Maye has prototypical size, athleticism, and arm strength. He has quick feet and quick hands, but his delivery can get long at times. He’s a gifted thrower who drives the ball without much foot space in the pocket (including with defenders hanging on him). He can take pace off the ball on swings and shallow crossers. He has a nice touch on bucket throws down the field. He is athletic to escape and create with his legs and he’s tough to tackle in space. He is ultra-competitive as a runner, something he’ll need to dial back a bit at the next level. His pass protection wasn’t good last season at North Carolina and there weren’t always answers in the route to bail him out, which led to some poor decisions and carelessness with the ball. Overall, Maye has some things to clean up, but he has every ingredient to be a top-tier starter at the game’s most important position.
Dane Brugler compares Maye to Justin Herbert:
With his arm strength and pacing, Maye put a full inventory of throws on tape and showed he can comfortably operate with timing from the pocket. He is a quick-reaction athlete who makes off-schedule plays as a scrambler and is able to rip throws from different platforms. His arm can get juiced up at times and disrupt his ball placement, and his progression reads are still a work in progress, especially when he feels pressed to make a play.
Maye needs to cut down on reckless decisions, but he is cut from a similar cloth as Justin Herbert, with his physical gifts and smarts.
Draft Projection
Maye has an expected draft position of 3.8 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Maye second overall. Jeremiah had Maye second in his most recent mock, and Brugler’s had him second as well. Maye is a likely top three pick in the draft, but he certainly should not make it out of the top six.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
The range of outcomes on Maye is fairly interesting, including the types of QBs that make the list. His mobility is an asset that earns him comps to players such as Deshaun Watson, Robert Griffin, Marcus Mariota, and Johnny Manziel. Trevor Lawrence, Mitch Trubisky, and Alex Smith are in that next tier of mobility. While the range of outcomes here is wide, perhaps the most important thing to take away is that Maye projects to be a strong rushing threat at the next level.
In terms of player quality, Watson and Smith have had strong careers, and Lawrence may be on his way. Wilson and Trubisky busted horribly, as did Manziel. Desmond Ridder and DeShone Kizer may have made this list off athleticism, but obviously came in at far lower draft capital than Maye will.
