Episode Summary: Market Monday – June 1 (June 1, 2026)
Adam Levitan returns with another Market Monday, breaking down six best ball ADP risers and fallers. He is still passing on Josh Jacobs at 40 overall after the domestic abuse arrest, but will gamble closer to 50 where Bucky Irving and Quinshon Judkins types are going. He is fading Patrick Mahomes at 92 because he easily prefers Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence in that range. Plus, Nico Collins at 23 is a solid bet over George Pickens, Jacoby Brissett at 164 is “pure insanity,” and Greg Dulcich is a sneaky late tight end on Malik Willis teams.
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Key Topics
- Risers: Nico Collins up 2.2 spots to 23 overall, Greg Dulcich up 2.2 to 210, and Stefon Diggs up 3.9 to 139.
- Fallers: Josh Jacobs down 10 spots to 39 overall, Jacoby Brissett down 4.3 to 164, and Patrick Mahomes down 3.9 to 92.
Takeaway #1 (7:01): Josh Jacobs is still a pass at 40. Adam will gamble closer to 50
- Adam already had mild concerns about Jacobs before the domestic abuse arrest. Jacobs is 28 years old with a ton of tread on his tires — over 1,800 carries in the NFL plus 269 catches. He did not have a single 100-yard rushing game last season. He only had three runs of 20+ yards all year on 234 carries. For reference, Derrick Henry led the league with 17 carries of 20+ yards on 307 total carries.
- Now come these ugly domestic violence allegations. Jacobs is denying them vehemently, but he was arrested on domestic abuse battery, domestic abuse, criminal damage to property, domestic abuse disorderly conduct, strangulation and suffocation, and intimidation of a victim. Adam is a big innocent-until-proven-guilty guy, but something here is not sitting right. There is a 911 call from a neighbor, Jacobs left the scene, and Adam Schefter is hinting at the Ray Rice situation and talking about other options at running back for the Packers.
- Under the personal conduct policy, the NFL can suspend even if a player is not convicted, and even if he is not charged. The baseline suspension for domestic violence is six games and can be more. If Jacobs is charged with a violent crime, the NFL can put him on the commissioner’s exempt list. At 40 overall, Adam is still passing — Javonte Williams is there, and some really good wide receivers are, too. When you get closer to 50, where Bucky Irving and Quinshon Judkins types are going, Adam will gamble there on Jacobs.
Takeaway #2 (11:39): Adam is fading Patrick Mahomes. There are cleaner stacks at this ADP
- Adam is a little surprised Mahomes is falling. He participated in May OTAs just five and a half months removed from knee surgery, there have been positive vibes around the ACL recovery the whole way, and we have videos of him dropping back, throwing, and playing golf. It is far from a lock, but Adam is playing it like Mahomes is out there in Week 1. The NFL made Broncos at Chiefs the first Monday Night Football game of the season. They probably would not do that if it were likely to be Justin Fields under center for the Chiefs.
- The bigger question for Adam is Mahomes’ ability to scramble off this injury, and his willingness to do so. In the last three years, Mahomes has not been an elite fantasy quarterback via throwing. A huge part of his fantasy production last year was averaging 4.6 carries for 30 yards and 0.34 rushing touchdowns per game. If you eliminate that coming off the knee injury, it is not ideal.
- The other issue is stackability. Rashee Rice is a mess, Adam does not have a lot of interest in Travis Kelce, Kenneth Walker III is unlikely to play in 2-minute and 4-minute drill stuff where running backs rack up catches, and Xavier Worthy is okay but far from thrilling. Adam easily prefers Jalen Hurts to Mahomes. He also prefers Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence — just easier stuff to stack. He does not want zero Mahomes, but there are a lot of cleaner quarterback options in this range.
Takeaway #3 (1:31): Nico Collins at 23 is a solid bet over George Pickens
- Adam is not sure the general public realizes how good Nico Collins is. Over the last three years, among all wide receivers in yards per route run, Nico finished 10th, second, and second. He is third in yards per target over the last three years on a lot of volume, 7.8 targets per game. And in the last two years, that came with shaky quarterback play and shaky scheme.
- Nico has not had one of those insane Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, or Amon-Ra St. Brown-type seasons. Maybe he can’t have that because the Texans are such a strong defensive team. But the floor is so high. If things break right — C.J. Stroud regains his rookie-year form, the defense has injuries and regresses, and there are more shootouts — you could get a really big season from Nico.
- Adam does not think Nico is a windmill, but he is a solid bet at 23 overall. Adam prefers Nico to George Pickens in that range by just a smidge, assuming CeeDee Lamb sustains health, and thinks Chris Olave is right there with those guys, too. Nico is rising partly because people are backing off Trey McBride for the reasons Silva discussed on the rankings release show.
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About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
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