Evan Silva’s Matchups: Buccaneers at Bears

Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay @ Chicago

Team Totals: Buccaneers 20, Bears 26.5

It’s impossible to judge Baker Mayfield after 14 passes since coming back from injury. On the surface, Chicago permitted 3.0 yards per play with Jeffery Simmons on the field (first), compared to the 6.4 they’ve allowed without him (32nd). But that’s a one-week sample, and 45 or 52 carries — Tampa Bay’s approach the last two games in blowouts over divisional foes — won’t cut it, since the only way to beat the Bears is to outscore them. Perhaps it changed overnight, but zooming out, Chicago’s defense ceded 7.6 yards per attempt (24th) for the sixth-most points per dropback before Monday, qualifying Baker as a high-confidence streamer. … Kenneth Gainwell has handled 14 and 25 carries in the past two games, but a closer look reveals he didn’t touch the ball until Bucky Irving had eight of his own last week; Tampa’s -35.3% Pass Rate Over Expectation (32nd) in back-to-back blowouts isn’t telling of its 1.8% rate (14th) through Week 6. Although Irving’s last matchup versus a top-five defense (in points allowed to his position) resulted in a season-low yardage total against Pittsburgh, the number of touches he should receive keeps him ranked as an RB2. His ceiling would be capped in this matchup if Sean Tucker or Gainwell are truly handed more work.