Jacksonville vs. Buffalo
Team Totals: Bills 27.5, Jaguars 20.5
Coming off an emotional, statement home-game win over the white-hot Dolphins, the Bills cross the Atlantic to face a Jaguars team playing consecutive games in London. The Jags stayed in the U.K. this week, theoretically giving Doug Pederson’s team a leg up in terms of jet lag and body clock. … Josh Allen hung Week 4’s overall QB1 score on Dolphins DC Vic Fangio’s defense by completing 21 of 25 throws (85%) for 320 yards (13 YPA) and four TDs, adding 4/17/1 with his legs. It was 2023’s highest-scoring quarterback outing to date. Humming on offense, Buffalo enters Week 5 ranked top six in points per game (35), yards per game (391), first downs per game (23), and yards per play (5.9). Jacksonville has yielded the NFL’s 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. … James Cook is handling over 60% of Buffalo’s RB carries and converted a rare goal-line opportunity for his first rushing score of the season in Week 4. Cook still isn’t seeing third-down or 2-minute work, but he ranks No. 7 in the NFL in rushing yards (296) and is locked in as the lead back on a high-scoring attack. … Damien Harris has carry counts of 6, 5, and 7 over the last three games and is playing 35% of the Bills’ short-down-and-distance snaps while seeing four carries inside the 10. He’s a TD-or-bust single-game DFS punt. … The Bills’ preferred third-down and 2-minute back for his pass protection reliability, Latavius Murray leads the team with four carries inside the 5-yard line, converting two. Like Harris, Murray is a TD-or-bust play in single-game DFS.
Allen’s Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Stefon Diggs 39; Gabe Davis 18; Dalton Kincaid 17; Cook 14; Dawson Knox 13; Deonte Harty 12; Murray 7; Trent Sherfield 6; Khalil Shakir 3; Harris 2; Reggie Gilliam 1. … Eighth in the NFL in target share (30%) and ninth in yards per route run (2.83), Diggs is coming off a 6/120/3 flaming of Miami in which he cooked CB Kader Kohou, as the Bills masterfully worked Diggs away from Dolphins top CB Xavien Howard.
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