New Orleans @ Atlanta
Team Totals: Falcons 21.5, Saints 20.5
While I personally would prefer to watch Chris Olave & Co. catching balls from Jameis Winston, the Saints’ organization simply has too much invested in Derek Carr to turn away from him so soon. Still 25th in per-game fantasy quarterback points this season, Carr is barely start-worthy in two-QB/Superflex leagues. … The Saints have consistently been more aggressive using Taysom Hill in games when they are tied or leading as opposed to when they’re trying to rally from behind. Just 1-point road dogs here, this projects as a largely neutral-script affair. I’m firing up Hill wherever he is tight end eligible. … Ostensibly running out of late-career gas, Alvin Kamara is averaging career lows in yards per carry (3.7) and yards per catch (6.1) and continues to risk losing scoring-position work to Hill and traditional running back usage to trusty Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller. Only the Bucs and Eagles have surrendered fewer fantasy points to RBs than Atlanta. I’m treating Kamara as a somewhat risky RB2/flex starter.
Carr’s 2023 target distribution: Olave 80; Michael Thomas 54; Kamara 52; Rashid Shaheed 44; Hill 27; Juwan Johnson 15; Foster Moreau 12; Miller 10; Williams 7. … Olave is an obvious candidate to draw Falcons top CB A.J. Terrell’s shadow coverage; on the season, Terrell has permitted just 32 receptions for 398 yards and three touchdowns on 56 targets (57% completions, 7.1 YPA) despite matching up with the opposition’s No. 1 wideout on a weekly basis.
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