Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 15

 

Saturday Football

4:30 PM ET Game

Las Vegas @ Cleveland

Team Totals: Browns 24, Raiders 18

As the bottom has fallen out on Vegas’ offense — the Raiders have scored 16 points or fewer in five of their last six games — the Browns’ D/ST sets up as Week 15’s top fantasy play as it relates to Derek Carr. Carr has thrown multiple TD passes once since Week 7 and gone 24 straight games without a rushing score. … Cleveland has posed a middling matchup for enemy backs, but projected usage works in Josh Jacobs’ favor with Kenyan Drake (ankle) done for the year. Jacobs enters Week 15 having banked an 80% snap rate over his last two games, touch counts of 24, 21, and 14 over his last three, and five-plus receptions in four of the Raiders’ last five affairs. He’s a volume-based RB2 bet against the Browns. … Jalen Richard is back from the Covid list and will probably sporadically spell Jacobs in passing downs. Yet Richard has been a complete non-factor as a 2021 ball handler with 13 touches in six appearances.

Darren Waller (knee) never seemed close to returning for Week 14, while Foster Moreau emerged from Vegas’ blowout loss with a strained abdomen. The Raiders’ No. 3 tight end is Daniel Helm, who’s on his sixth organization since going undrafted out of Duke in 2019. Moreau does seem likelier than not to face the Browns; I’m valuing him as a touchdown-or-bust streamer. … All signs point to Hunter Renfrow staying hot at Cleveland, which will miss slot CB Troy Hill (knee) on Saturday. Renfrow has eclipsed 100 yards in three straight games. … Zay Jones, Bryan Edwards, and DeSean Jackson continue to offer little room for passing-game optimism as Vegas’ Nos. 2-4 receivers. Jones has exceeded 25 yards once since Week 7. Edwards has topped 30 yards once in that same timeframe. Carr hasn’t targeted D-Jax more than four times in five games since Jackson joined the Raiders. D-Jax is still my preferred play from this bunch. Jackson did log 51% of last week’s offensive snaps, his highest playing-time rate all season.

Run-friendly script should be anticipated for Cleveland; the Browns are home favorites hosting a drain-circling Raiders team that’s allowed over 4.4 yards per carry and the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. Kareem Hunt’s (ankle) absence raises Nick Chubb’s workload projection in this obvious slump-buster spot. Albeit quietly, Chubb played a season-high 66% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps in last week’s win over Baltimore and is capable of running roughshod over Las Vegas. … D’Ernest Johnson will inherit at least a portion of Hunt’s role, giving Johnson small-slate DFS-tournament appeal. … Baker Mayfield has passed for fewer than 250 yards in 10 of his last 11 starts and hasn’t thrown for more than two TDs in a single 2021 game. Even against the lowly Raiders, Mayfield is a mere two-QB-league option.

UPDATE: The Browns announced Tuesday that WR Jarvis Landry, LT Jedrick Wills, RG Wyatt Teller, and TE Austin Hooper went on the Covid list. None should be expected to play on Saturday. I still think the matchup is positive enough to maintain confidence in Nick Chubb as an upside RB1, but Baker Mayfield figures to be under siege against Vegas’ explosive pass rush sans his left tackle, right guard, and RT Jack Conklin (patellar tendon). The Raiders’ D/ST is playable. I expect Rashard Higgins to fill in for Landry opposite Donovan Peoples-Jones. David Njoku looks ticketed for main tight end duties in a plum spot.

UPDATE: Baker Mayfield joined all of the above on the Covid list and will be replaced by Case Keenum on Saturday. It appears David Njoku will return as Cleveland’s primary tight end with Harrison Bryant (ankle) perhaps behind him. Bryant missed Week 14 but has practiced on a limited basis this week.

Fresh off establishing career highs in playing time (92%) and targets (7) against the Ravens, Donovan Peoples-Jones is locked into a near-full-time role across from Jarvis Landry. DPJ’s high-volatility route tree in a run-foundation offense lowers his floor, but his big-play ability is tangible averaging 19.8 yards per catch since entering the NFL. … Landry has scored a touchdown and/or reached 100 yards in three straight games, drawing at least eight targets in all three. He’s a WR3 play with WR2 upside here. … With David Njoku (Covid) and Harrison Bryant (ankle) sidelined against Baltimore in Week 14, Austin Hooper played 100% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps and tied his season high for targets (7). Njoku will be a small-slate DFS-tournament consideration should he return here. Either way, Hooper will be a touchdown-or-bust streamer. It helps that the Raiders have allowed the NFL’s second-most fantasy tight end points.

Score Prediction: Browns 23, Raiders 17

 

 

8:20 PM ET Game

New England @ Indianapolis

Team Totals: Colts 24, Patriots 21.5

Two of football’s hottest teams, the Patriots and Colts each return from byes with New England having peeled off seven straight wins and Indy banking six victories over its last eight. Although OC Josh McDaniels is willing to adjust weekly game plans based on opponents, the Pats have largely deployed Mac Jones as a low-volume game manager in favor of their oft-dominant rushing attack. New England’s backfield projections will be heavily influenced by the status of Damien Harris, who repeatedly pulled his hamstring in Week 13’s pre-bye win over Buffalo. Rhamondre Stevenson correspondingly handled season highs in snaps (63%) and carries (24) against the Bills. I’m treating Jones as a two-QB-league and small-slate DFS-tournament play, Harris and Stevenson as dicey flex options, and Brandon Bolden as an in-limbo flex.

UPDATE: Damien Harris (hamstring) resumed practicing on Tuesday following New England’s Week 14 bye and looks on track to face Indy.

The run-heavy Patriots are deploying a four-man WRBC of Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry, and Kendrick Bourne at wide receiver, plus a two-way TEBC of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. Indianapolis has permitted the league’s eighth-fewest yards to enemy wideouts (1,840) but the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy tight end points. Unfortunately, New England’s commitment to a low-volume passing offense and rotations at receiver and tight end severely curb each individual’s fantasy usability.

His legs fresh coming off Indy’s bye, Jonathan Taylor meets a Patriots defense that’s yielded nearly 4.50 yards per carry and the NFL’s fourth-most receiving yards (704) to running backs. Taylor leads the league in rushing by a whopping 312-yard margin and ranks No. 8 at his position in receiving yards (336). Taylor enters Week 15 averaging 28.5 touches over his last four appearances. … Nyheim Hines has logged six touches or fewer in five of Indy’s last six games. When the Colts took insurmountable leads over the Bills in Week 11 and Texans in Week 13, Indianapolis turned to Deon Jackson over Hines to handle garbage-time work. … Facing a Patriots defense holding quarterbacks to the NFL’s second-fewest fantasy points, Carson Wentz is a Week 15 fade. Pats-Colts profiles as a low-scoring contest — its sportsbook total is below 46 — while Wentz has cleared 275 passing yards only twice through 13 starts with Indianapolis.

Michael Pittman’s 18 targets earned over Indy’s two pre-bye games suggest he’s worth betting on to positively regress. Yet New England has held wide receivers to the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy points, rendering Pittman a fade-matchup WR3/flex option. … Zach Pascal and T.Y. Hilton round out Indy’s three-receiver sets with Ashton Dulin as No. 4. At tight end, Jack Doyle, Kylen Granson, and Mo Alie-Cox continue to rotate. No NFL defense has allowed fewer fantasy tight end points than New England’s.

Score Prediction: Colts 21, Patriots 20

 

 

Carolina @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 27, Panthers 16.5

In a staggering downward spiral with losses in eight of their last 10 games, the Panthers have resorted to throwing crap at the wall and hoping something sticks. They fired progressive OC Joe Brady, replacing him with Matt Rhule crony Jeff Nixon. They’re essentially rotating Cam Newton and P.J. Walker. In the backfield, Cam handled 10 Week 14 carries, Chuba Hubbard 10 touches, and Ameer Abdullah six as part of Carolina’s embarrassing home loss to Atlanta. You’re on your own trying to tee up any of these guys at Buffalo, whose defense is yielding the NFL’s third-fewest points per game (17.6). … Robby Anderson (7/84/1) and D.J. Moore (6/84/0) turned in fantasy-useful Week 14 efforts versus the Falcons, yet neither has delivered any hint of 2021 reliability, and they now encounter a Bills team holding wide receivers to the league’s fewest fantasy points. Anderson and Moore profile as low-floor WR3 gambles.

Josh Allen emerged from last Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay in a boot to protect his sprained foot, yet all indications have been positive regarding his Week 15 availability. And that’s of course great news, since Allen leads all quarterbacks in per-game fantasy scoring and has produced at an opponent-proof clip. I also think the removal of #AgeModel casualty Emmanuel Sanders (knee) in favor of Gabriel Davis bodes well for Buffalo’s pass-game efficiency. … Chasing Bills running backs has been a non-lucrative fantasy strategy all year with Allen operating as Buffalo’s alpha runner and Devin Singletary, Matt Breida, and Zack Moss each shuffling in and out of the league’s lowest-volume tailback rotation. As the Panthers have given up the NFL’s fourth-fewest fantasy running back points, this is an obvious situation to avoid.

Considered week to week, Sanders’ absence vaults Gabriel Davis into a full-time role in Buffalo’s three-receiver sets. Last Sunday, Davis banked season highs in snaps (83%) and targets (8) following Sanders’ early exit, while Davis has genuinely earned more run by averaging 18.0 yards per reception and 11.5 yards per target over Buffalo’s last five games. Physical, athletic, and obviously trusted by Allen, Davis is an exciting WR3/flex play here. … This still shouldn’t be mistaken for a gimmie matchup; Carolina has allowed the league’s seventh-fewest fantasy wide receiver points. Stefon Diggs is a bet-on-talent WR1. … Cole Beasley’s recent box scores have been all over the map, but Sanders’ loss can only help him. Sanders was playing more snaps and running more routes than Beasley lately, and Beasley erupted for 11 targets and an eight-game high in playing time (81%) in last week’s Sanders-less loss to the Bucs. … Dawson Knox led all Bills pass catchers in Week 14 snaps (96%) and routes run (58), drew nine targets, and continues to carve out a larger and larger passing-game role. He’s emerged as an every-week TE1.

Score Prediction: Bills 24, Panthers 16

 

 

Arizona @ Detroit

Team Totals: Cardinals 29.5, Lions 17.5

Visiting Detroit’s Ford Field dome in a premium bounce-back spot following last Monday night’s miscue-marred loss to the Rams, Kyler Murray won’t have DeAndre Hopkins (knee surgery) but is still an extreme-upside QB1 bet. Reemerging as the true engine of Arizona’s offense, Murray has set back-to-back season highs in rushing yards (59, 61) and attempted a year-high 49 passes against L.A. Especially if his ownership rate is reduced by Hopkins’ loss, Kyler profiles as an optimal DFS-tournament play against a Lions team giving up the NFL’s fourth-most points per game (27.2). … James Conner (ankle) and Chase Edmonds’ (ankle) availabilities probably won’t be definitively determined until late in the week, but each will be a justifiable RB2 start even if they’re both active. No NFC team has permitted more fantasy running back points than the Lions.

In Hopkins’ previous three missed games, Christian Kirk operated as Arizona’s No. 1 receiver with A.J. Green a close No. 2 and Rondale Moore No. 3. All three encounter a plum draw indoors against a Lions secondary that’s been incinerated by injuries. … This is an obvious popup spot for Kirk, who has a three-year history with Murray and won’t come off the field. … Green drew a season-high 10 targets in last week’s loss to the Rams and delivered his second 100-plus-yard game of the year. In a setting where we should expect his quarterback to succeed, Green checks in as a WR3 play with WR2 upside. … Obviously so-far stereotyped as a gadget-guy only, Rondale Moore only elevates to Arizona’s No. 3 wideout role and doesn’t project to see a meaningful aDOT expansion. Albeit with enhanced upside post-Hopkins, Moore remains a WR4/flex option. … Zach Ertz’s weekly target counts have been all over the place over the past five weeks: 7, 2, 9, 6, 5. Ertz has cleared 50 yards twice over his last nine NFL appearances. He’s a touchdown-or-bust TE1/2 streamer here.

Jared Goff enters Week 15 nursing half-decade lows in efficiency stats such as yards per pass attempt (6.4), touchdown rate (3.2%), and yards per completion (9.6), while Nos. 1 and 2 pass-game weapons D’Andre Swift (shoulder) and T.J. Hockenson (hand) are of questionable-to-doubtful health. This spot sets up favorably for Arizona’s D/ST. … Jamaal Williams (Covid) will presumably return to retain lead-back status, although UDFA rookie Craig Reynolds inarguably earned a going-forward role by turning his 13 Week 14 touches into 99 yards, and both Godwin Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson loom as workload threats. It can’t help that Arizona has held enemy backs to the league’s eighth-fewest fantasy points. … Doing a valid Golden Tate impression, rookie slot WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has 18 catches over the Lions’ last two games and almost never leaves the field. Especially with Swift and Hockenson on the shelf, St. Brown has earned every-week WR3/flex valuation. … Any interest in Nos. 2 and 3 WRs Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond is based on the possibility one delivers a big play. The Cards have allowed an NFC-low 28 completions of 20-plus yards. … In Hockenson’s Week 14 absence, Shane Zylstra and Brock Wright near-evenly split tight end duties. The Cardinals have held enemy tight ends to the league’s third-fewest fantasy points.

UPDATE: T.J. Hockenson underwent year-ending thumb surgery. Brock Wright and Shane Zylstra will handle Lions tight end duties the rest of the way. I’d prefer Wright if forced to pick from the two.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 34, Lions 13

 

 

N.Y. Jets @ Miami

Team Totals: Dolphins 25.5, Jets 17

With Zach Wilson doing his best Jake Locker impression and both Elijah Moore (calf) and Corey Davis (core muscle surgery) on I.R., the Jets’ passing game provides little room for box-score optimism against Miami’s sturdy pass defense. Fresh off their Week 14 bye, the Fins have held each of their last five foes to 17 points or fewer and make for an excellent D/ST start. Gang Green is trotting out a gruesome six-man WRBC weave of Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, D.J. Montgomery, Braxton Berrios, Denzel Mims, and Vyncint Smith. … Ryan Griffin is the only tight end the Jets have been using, yet he’s seen four targets or fewer in five straight games. Tyler Kroft is expected to return from I.R. this week to cut into Griffin’s playing time. … The Jets’ backfield is an ongoing conundrum with weekly moving parts that typically don’t pay individual fantasy dividends. Last week, Tevin Coleman was out with a concussion and Michael Carter (high ankle) remained on I.R. Ty Johnson spectacularly flopped as Gang Green’s lead back, committing three drops and averaging 2.8 yards on six carries. La’Mical Perine has done nothing impressive since entering the league. Carter is due back against the Dolphins, yet so is Coleman. 

Tua Tagovailoa enters Week 15 having completed 84-of-105 attempts (80%) for 747 yards (7.1 YPA) with a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio over Miami’s last three games now set to face a Jets defense permitting the NFL’s 11th-most fantasy quarterback points. The Fins’ running back room is in Covid-induced disarray — perhaps pushing more onto Tua’s passing-game plate — while Tagovailoa’s supporting cast is as healthy as it’s been all year coming off Week 14’s bye. Tua is a high-end QB2 play with legitimate QB1 upside here. … Phillip Lindsay, Myles Gaskin, and Salvon Ahmed are all on the Covid list, and Patrick Laird (knee) isn’t yet eligible to return from I.R., leaving Duke Johnson, perhaps Malcolm Brown (quad, I.R.), and practice squadders Dexter Williams and Gerrid Doaks to vie for backfield work. Hopefully, this situation will clarify by the end of the week; the Jets have given up the NFL’s most fantasy RB points.

UPDATE: The Dolphins ruled out Jaylen Waddle (Covid) for Week 15. I like DeVante Parker as a DFS play and WR3 starter with WR2 upside in season-long leagues. I’m also upgrading Mike Gesicki; Waddle has been a volume vacuum, and multiple teammates stand to benefit in the box score from his absence. My guess is Isaiah Ford will mainly take over at slot receiver.

Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker project as Miami’s top-two receivers against Gang Green with Mike Gesicki continuing to soak up tight end action and Albert Wilson, Durham Smythe, Isaiah Ford, Preston Williams, and Mack Hollins working as role players. Playing tangibly faster and hitting an obvious stride before Miami’s bye, Waddle has caught eight balls or more in four of the Fins’ last five games. Waddle checks in as a locked-in WR2 play against the Jets. … Parker banked a 71% snap rate in Miami’s Week 13 pre-bye win over the Giants and turned five targets into 5/62/0 receiving. In a softer matchup further removed from his hamstring woes, I like Parker as a WR3/flex with enough upside for DFS tournaments here. … Gesicki is among fantasy’s most frustrating producers at fantasy’s most frustrating position, but the positivity of his Week 15 matchup can’t be denied. Sorely missing top safety Marcus Maye (Achilles, I.R.) and porous at linebacker, the Jets have allowed the NFL’s sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Jets 13

 

 

Dallas @ N.Y. Giants

Team Totals: Cowboys 27.5, Giants 17

Hall of Fame QB Steve Young’s breakdown of Dak Prescott’s ongoing struggles on last week’s Monday Night Countdown couldn’t have been more on point. A dual-threat quarterback himself who battled constant nagging injuries, Young concluded that Prescott is playing hurt, creating on-field distractions that impact his decision-making and pocket comfort. Skewered by Keenan Allen-less Justin Herbert for a season-high 133.1 passer rating in Week 14’s blowout loss, the Giants appear likely to miss CB Adoree Jackson (quad) and SS Xavier McKinney (Covid) versus Dallas. Especially without LT Tyron Smith (ankle), I’m still viewing Dak as a high-volatility QB1 gamble. … Playing with a brace on his troublesome knee, Ezekiel Elliott enters Week 15 averaging an anemic 3.3 yards per carry and 5.1 yards per catch over his last five appearances. Tony Pollard’s (plantar fascia) availability may come down to a game-time call. The good news is the G-Men have given up the league’s ninth-most fantasy running back points. The bad news is Zeke’s struggles are longstanding at this point, and Pollard could return to eat into his touches.

UPDATE: The Giants will indeed be without CB Adoree Jackson after placing him on the Covid list Thursday. They’ll also be without Jackson’s direct backup, Aaron Robinson (Covid). Every member of Dallas’ passing game is in a plus Week 15 spot.

Smartly intent on putting the ball in CeeDee Lamb’s hands, the Cowboys have begun force-feeding him rushing attempts on top of his 23 targets over the past two weeks. Lamb’s weekly production has been somewhat inconsistent, but it’s safe to say he’s emerged as Dallas’ No. 1 passing-game option. … Back to seeing every-down usage following a series of battles with various illnesses, Amari Cooper’s Week 14 snap rate (88%) was his highest since Week 6, and his seven targets were Amari’s most since Week 8. Cooper warrants WR2 treatment against the Giants, who are permitting the NFL’s 12th-most fantasy wide receiver points. … Whenever Dallas’ three-receiver set is at full strength, Michael Gallup becomes an impossibly difficult player to project. On paper, it does look good that Gallup is averaging nine targets over his last four games. … McKinney’s absence in the middle of the field enhances Dalton Schultz’s odds of bouncing back from last week’s 1/4/0 clunker on three targets. Schultz is still playing nearly every snap in the Cowboys’ offense and ranks top eight among NFL tight ends in fantasy points.

Against Mike Glennon and perhaps a sprinkling of Jake Fromm, the Giants are an obvious attack target for Dallas’ D/ST, which wreaked relentless havoc in Week 14’s win over Washington. Armed with all of DEs DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, EDGE/LB Micah Parsons, and DT Neville Gallimore for the first time all year, the Cowboys knocked Taylor Heinicke out of last week’s game twice while amassing five sacks and four takeaways. … Garbage time helped propel Saquon Barkley to an RB1-caliber Week 14 fantasy output, but you’d struggle to draw up a tougher Week 15 environment than this one with a backup quarterback behind a porous offensive line facing a Cowboys defense holding enemy backs to the NFL’s sixth-fewest fantasy points. Barkley is a role-secure but hope-driven RB2. … Optimism for Giants pass catchers is tough to drum up. Kenny Golladay can’t get open, Kadarius Toney can’t get healthy, Sterling Shepard has gained 52 yards since Week 6, and Evan Engram has earned redaction.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Giants 13

 

 

Washington @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Eagles 25.5, Football Team 18.5

Knocked out of last week’s loss to Dallas twice, Taylor Heinicke (elbow, knee) will tough out multiple injuries against an Eagles defense fresh off its bye. This is a premium spot for Philly’s D/ST, especially since Washington will definitely miss Logan Thomas (ACL) and Cam Sims (Covid), and is in danger of playing without J.D. McKissic (concussion), Terry McLaurin (concussion), and Curtis Samuel (hamstring). … Adam Humphries led Football Team wide receivers in Week 14 snaps, and John Bates did so among WFT’s tight ends. It’s gotten that bad. Even if McLaurin plays, he’ll catch a rough matchup with Darius Slay; Philadelphia has held enemy WRs to the league’s third-fewest fantasy points. … The Football Team’s lone confident skill-position play is Antonio Gibson, whose outlook will obviously heighten should McKissic continue to miss. The Eagles have allowed the 13th-most fantasy running back points.

Whether it be Jalen Hurts (ankle) or Gardner Minshew, Philly’s quarterback will take on a decimated Washington defensive front short Chase Young (ACL), Jonathan Allen (Covid), Montez Sweat (Covid), and Matt Ioannidis (Covid). Hurts’ injury this week was revealed to be a high ankle sprain, while Minshew performed more than admirably in Week 13’s pre-bye start, averaging 9.7 yards per pass attempt and engineering the Eagles’ 33-18 blowout of the Jets. I have concerns Hurts’ mobility could be compromised should he return. … In Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell, the Eagles once again have four legitimate running back options. Sanders projects as the clear lead back, but Scott and Gainwell pose passing-game obstacles, and Howard could poach some early-down and short-yardage work if he’s active. Still likely to benefit from run-friendly script against a WFT front line that’s been all but deleted, I’m approaching Sanders as a high-ceiling RB2 starter here.

With the exception of Hurts and No. 2 WR Quez Watkins (Covid), the Eagles’ offense is healthy coming off its bye. This is an excellent matchup for DeVonta Smith against a Washington secondary that’s given up the league’s third-most fantasy wide receiver points. … With Watkins on the shelf, Jalen Reagor is a living-on-a-prayer DFS-tournament dart. … Washington’s placement of SS Kam Curl on the Covid list upgrades Dallas Goedert’s matchup after Minshew and Goedert showed immense pre-bye chemistry. If Minshew starts, Goedert will be an obvious smash. But I’m still rolling with him if Hurts gets the nod.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Football Team 13

 

 

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh

Team Totals: Titans 22, Steelers 21

The Titans visit Heinz Field for what profiles as a low-scoring affair; the Steelers are getting back CB Joe Haden (foot), while T.J. Watt practiced fully this week after tweaking his groin in Week 14’s Thursday night loss to Minnesota. Still depleted at the skill positions, Tennessee’s last four team point totals are 20, 13, 13, and 23. As Ryan Tannehill couldn’t muster fantasy-worthwhile games in Week 12 against the Texans or Week 14 against the Jaguars, I’m skeptical he’ll do so here. … Haden and Watt provide big lifts in pass defense but won’t fix Pittsburgh’s run defense, which was gashed by Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison for a 33/232/2 (7.03 YPC) rushing line last week. The Vikings’ O-Line cleared gaping alleys all night. The Titans’ three-way RBBC can cause headaches, but D’Onta Foreman is a justifiable flex option after leading the group in Week 14 touches (15) over Jeremy McNichols (8) and Dontrell Hilliard (6).

Julio Jones was limited in his Week 14 return from I.R., playing behind Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Cody Hollister but ahead of Chester Rogers and Racey McMath as part of Tennessee’s five-way WRBC. Julio is scoreless on the year and has cleared 60 yards once in seven appearances. … Deploying committees at every non-QB skill position, the Titans are also rotating Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser, and MyCole Pruitt at tight end. Each drew between three and five targets last week. Not one is a viable streamer.

Ben Roethlisberger has played competently enough lately to be considered for desperation streamer playability against the Titans, who’ve supported high quarterback floors by permitting top-16 fantasy QB results in 9-of-13 games. Over his last five starts, Big Ben is 122-of-186 passing (65.6%) for 1,285 yards and an 11:3 TD-to-INT ratio. I also like the individual outlooks for virtually every Steelers pass catcher against the Titans. … The story never changes for Najee Harris, who’s parlayed 49 touches into 211 yards and two scores over Pittsburgh’s last two games, playing 97% of the Steelers’ offensive snaps. The Titans have restricted enemy running backs to the league’s fifth-fewest fantasy points, but Harris’ near-unrivaled usage renders him matchup-proof. Harris is a no-brainer RB1 starter versus Tennessee.

Chase Claypool drew widespread criticism for celebrating a first-down reception that slowed down the Steelers’ two-minute drill in comeback mode last Thursday night against the Vikings. Earlier on, he was temporarily benched for Ray-Ray McCloud. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers proactively force fed Claypool to get him going against the Titans. Claypool’s ceiling remains sky high, he is a critical part of Pittsburgh’s short- and long-term organizational outlooks, and Tennessee has given up the most fantasy wide receiver points in the AFC. Claypool has DFS-tournament play written all over him. … Cooper Kupp East, Diontae Johnson pulled in double-digit targets for the 10th time in 12 appearances against Minnesota. Based on usage and matchup, this is an obvious eruption spot for him. … Pat Freiermuth’s target totals have fallen off a bit lately, but he’s topped a 70% playing-time clip in three straight contests. Ultimately, whether Freiermuth hits will likely come down to whether or not he scores a touchdown. (Fortunately, it’s what he was born to do.)

Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Titans 17

 

 

Houston @ Jacksonville

Team Totals: Jaguars 22, Texans 18

Having topped 300 passing yards in three of his last five starts, Davis Mills has shown he can compete at the NFL level even if it’s in a long-term backup capacity. Mills’ near-term fantasy appeal is strictly limited to two-QB leagues with a bottom-five supporting cast and almost zero rushing contributions. The Jags have allowed the league’s seventh-fewest fantasy quarterback points. … Activated from the Covid list on Monday, David Johnson’s return muddles a Texans backfield that won’t have Rex Burkhead (groin) but will have Johnson, Royce Freeman, and Jaylen Samuels. This has the appearance of a three-man RBBC. … Brandin Cooks has caught 72% of Mills’ targets, while Cooks’ receiving lines in Mills’ last four starts are 8/101/0, 6/83/1, 5/21/0, and 9/89/0. The Jags have allowed the NFL’s seventh-most fantasy points to receivers. … There are worse Week 15 dart throws than Nico Collins, who’s emerged as Houston’s clear-cut No. 2 wideout and drew a season-high 10 targets in Week 14’s defeat. … Fifth-round rookie TE Brevin Jordan hit paydirt against the Seahawks and drew seven targets from Mills but continues to share time with Pharaoh Brown, Antony Auclair, and Jordan Akins as part of Houston’s four-way TEBC.

UPDATE: The Jaguars did what they should’ve done months ago, firing Urban Meyer on Wednesday night. Darrell Bevell is taking over as interim coach. I’m skeptical on projecting significant near-term adjustments to Jacksonville’s offense but did change my Week 15 pick in this game to a Jags outright win.

UPDATE: In what amounted to his introductory press conference as the Jags’ interim head coach, Darrell Bevell sounded adamant on Thursday that he’ll resume featuring James Robinson after Urban Meyer played strange games with Jacksonville’s top back. Especially in a matchup this soft, I’m starting to love Robinson as a Week 15 DFS play.

For as long as Urban Meyer remains Jacksonville’s head coach — and owner Shahid Khan seems intent on letting Meyer finish the 2021 season — we should keep teeing up opponent D/STs against the Jaguars. Revealed in NFL.com’s late-week report on Jacksonville’s Meyer-induced dysfunction was a nugget that Meyer — not respected OC Darrell Bevell — is designing the offense that involves route combinations so poor receivers are literally running into each other, while Trevor Lawrence’s development has obviously been stunted. … Clearly banged up and perhaps in Meyer’s doghouse, James Robinson’s Weeks 13-14 touch counts dropped to 9 and 6. He’s a leap-of-faith RB2 option in a matchup favorable enough to bust Robinson’s slump. Rashaad Penny blowtorched these same Texans for a career-best 16/137/2 rushing line last week, and on the season Houston has yielded the NFL’s third-most fantasy running back points. … Marvin Jones, Laquon Treadwell, and Laviska Shenault continue to compose Jacksonville’s three-receiver set, a unit from which a consistently fantasy-relevant individual has yet to emerge. Even in plus draws, taking swings on Shenault has yet to pay off this season. … James O’Shaughnessy has drawn six targets in consecutive games but done nothing with them. He’s touchdown-less in 21 straight games.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 21, Texans 20

 

 

Cincinnati @ Denver

Team Totals: Broncos 23.5, Bengals 21

Week 15 sets up as a potential trap spot for the Bengals in a dangerous road environment coming off a taxing overtime loss to San Francisco. Denver is capable of at least partially controlling this game with its rushing attack, while Joe Burrow’s big box-score performances have largely occurred when the Bengals have been pushed on the scoreboard, which the Broncos probably won’t do here. I’m viewing Burrow as a low-end QB1 option. … While Zac Taylor’s insistence on playing Samaje Perine over Joe Mixon in passing situations continues to frustrate, Mixon remains the theoretical foundation of the Bengals’ offense, which is built on run-game volume and shot plays downfield. Still averaging over 25 touches in his last four appearances, Mixon is a high-confidence RB1 versus Denver’s middling defensive front.

Strong in perimeter pass coverage with Patrick Surtain and Ronald Darby at outside corner, the Broncos have held enemy wideouts to the league’s eighth-fewest fantasy points and rank mid-pack in deep pass plays allowed. Ja’Marr Chase is a bet-on-talent WR1/2 investment. … Tee Higgins likewise encounters an imposing Week 15 draw but is playing far too well to bench. Higgins has racked up three straight 100-plus-yard games and is on an efficiency tear, averaging 17.4 yards per catch and 12.1 yards per target over his last six. … Slot man Tyler Boyd’s box-score woes are due entirely to his misfit in Cincinnati’s offense. He’s a low-upside role player at this point. … C.J. Uzomah has drawn six targets in back-to-back comeback/shootout-style games but is scoreless since Week 7 and has finished below 25 yards in five of the Bengals’ last six contests. Only the Patriots have allowed fewer fantasy tight end points than Denver.

Teddy Bridgewater’s game-manager usage plus Sunday’s date with Cincinnati’s above-average pass defense renders Bridgewater two-QB-league playable only, as is typically the case. This game in no way projects as high scoring, while Bridgewater has thrown multiple touchdown passes in just one of his last six starts. … Even after Javonte Williams went wild against Kansas City in Melvin Gordon’s Week 13 absence, Gordon returned to lead the Broncos’ backfield in Week 14 carries (24) and snaps (34), although Williams did pace the corps in routes run (14) and targets (2). Those usage numbers are particularly notable against the Bengals, who’ve coughed up an AFC-high 92 receptions to running backs but have held Gordon and Williams’ position to the NFL’s fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (72.6). Gordon also sprained his thumb in last week’s blowout of Detroit, which could further adversely affect his pass-catching and pass-blocking participation. Both Williams and Gordon are justifiable RB2 starters here.

The frustrating story for Denver’s pass catchers never changes; even in last week’s 38-10 demolition of Detroit, not a single Bronco exceeded 51 receiving yards. Noah Fant hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 6. Albert Okwuegbunam continues to eat into Fant’s production, rendering both impossible to trust. Courtland Sutton has near-literally disappeared since Jerry Jeudy returned from his early-season high ankle sprain; Sutton is scoreless since Week 6 and has fallen below 30 yards in five straight affairs. Jeudy hasn’t hit paydirt all year. Tim Patrick hasn’t scored or reached 30 receiving yards since Week 9.

Score Prediction: Broncos 21, Bengals 20

 

 

Atlanta @ San Francisco

Team Totals: 49ers 28, Falcons 18.5

Getting leveled by a combination of the #AgeModel and the league’s weakest wide receiver corps, 36-year-old Matt Ryan enters Week 15 having been held under 200 passing yards in five of his last seven starts and thrown two touchdown passes over his last five. Even against a 49ers defense that remains shorthanded at corner and got heated up by Joe Burrow last week, Ryan is simply not a fantasy option beyond two-QB leagues. … Although Cordarrelle Patterson’s passing-game role has lessened with Mike Davis back to being involved, C-Patt has still respectably drawn five targets in consecutive games and piled up touch counts of 18, 16, and 18 over Atlanta’s last three affairs. San Francisco has given up the league’s 11th-most fantasy running back points. Patterson is a fringe RB1/2. … Hayden Hurst’s Week 14 return from I.R. dealt a fairly significant blow to Kyle Pitts; Hurst vultured a close-in score against the Panthers and out-snapped Pitts 43 to 36. Pitts is a borderline TE1/2 against a 49ers defense yielding the NFL’s fifth-fewest fantasy tight end points. … Slot man Russell Gage continues to be the Falcons’ lone fantasy-playable wide receiver, but his appeal is tied almost entirely to volume, and when he doesn’t get it, he fails. Gage has scored just seven TDs on 252 career targets, averaging a lowly 10.4 yards per catch.

His weapons cast back to full strength and having rendered No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance not even an afterthought, Jimmy Garoppolo is arguably in the midst of the best stretch of his career. Over his last six starts, Jimmy G is 123-of-178 passing (69.1%) for 1,509 yards (8.5 YPA) and an 11:4 TD-to-INT ratio. As the Falcons can’t rush the passer at all and are submitting the NFL’s second-most fantasy quarterback points, I think Garoppolo has enough upside for DFS consideration here. … We probably won’t find out Elijah Mitchell’s (concussion/knee) status until late in the week, but he’ll be a legitimate RB1 if he faces Atlanta in what sets up as running back-friendly script with San Francisco favored by two scores at home. In Mitchell’s Week 14 absence, Jeff Wilson ran as lead back but lost nine(!) carries to 49ers wide receivers and didn’t draw a solitary target while sharing passing-down snaps with JaMycal Hasty.

There is no player in football hotter than George Kittle, who’s turned 27 targets into 22/332/3 receiving over the last two weeks. Prayers up for the Falcons’ middle-of-the-field defenders. … TD regression seems certain to soon affect Deebo Samuel — he’s hit paydirt six times in San Francisco’s last four games — but Samuel’s all-purpose usage keeps him dialed in as an every-week top-10 WR1. … Having put his painfully slow start long behind him, Brandon Aiyuk paced all 49ers Week 14 receivers in playing time (94%) and all 49ers pass catchers in routes run (45) while drawing a season-high 11 targets and catching the game-winning touchdown in overtime against Cincinnati. I’m approaching Aiyuk as a WR3 play with WR2 upside against the Falcons, who are yielding the league’s 10th-most fantasy wide receiver points.

Score Prediction: 49ers 35, Falcons 17

 

 

Green Bay @ Baltimore

Team Totals: Packers 24.5, Ravens 19

Even while Aaron Rodgers emphatically reasserted his self-proclaimed ownership of Chicago to the tune of four touchdowns and 9.2 yards per pass attempt last Sunday night, Rodgers aggravated the fracture in his toe and stated after the game that his foot felt substantively “worse.” Fortunately, this is an injury Rodgers has continually shown he can successfully play through, over his last three games combining to torch the Bears, Rams, and Vikings for 80-of-115 passing (69.6%), a 10:0 TD-to-INT ratio with an additional rushing score, and 9.0 YPA. No longer an imposing pass defense, Baltimore is yielding the league’s third-most yards per pass attempt (7.8) and 10th-highest passer rating (94.7) while badly missing top CB Marlon Humphrey (torn pec). I’m confidently standing behind Rodgers as an elite QB1 despite health concerns. … In last Sunday night’s back-and-forth bout with Chicago, A.J. Dillon out-touched Aaron Jones 15 to 8 and out-snapped Jones 37 to 29, even while Jones hit paydirt twice. But Jones was Green Bay’s lead back for the majority of the first half, and Dillon largely salted the game away. Against a Ravens defensive front in danger of missing DE Calais Campbell (thigh), I’m valuing Jones as a fringe RB1/2 and Dillon as an RB2; Dillon has 15 or more touches in four straight games.

This is a smash spot for Davante Adams; Baltimore has surrendered league highs in 20-plus-yard pass plays (56) and 40-plus-yard completions (13). Adams is averaging career highs in yards per catch (13.4), yards per target (9.4), and receiving yards per game (100.3). … With Randall Cobb (I.R., core muscle surgery) out indefinitely, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard appear locked in as Green Bay’s Nos. 2 and 3 receivers. The Ravens’ defensive vulnerability in the deep passing game especially favors high-volatility longball threat Valdes-Scantling. … Lazard logged Week 14 season highs in targets (7) and receiving (6/75/1) versus Chicago. Lazard will rarely come off the field against Baltimore due to Green Bay’s shortages at tight end and wide receiver with Cobb and Robert Tonyan (ACL) on the shelf.

Lamar Jackson’s (ankle) chances of facing Green Bay have looked increasingly bleak as the week has progressed, pushing Tyler Huntley to the forefront of Baltimore’s quarterback conversation, albeit behind a potentially decimated offensive line. LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle, I.R.) is long gone. Fill-in LT Ali Villanueva (knee), G/T Tyre Phillips (illness), LG Ben Powers (foot), and RT Patrick Mekari (hand) all either didn’t or barely practiced during the week. This is an opportunity to tee up Green Bay’s D/ST against Huntley, who would be making his second NFL start. Huntley took six sacks in his first one, then lost two fumbles off the bench last week. … Difference-maker DT Kenny Clark’s placement on the Covid list did deal a significant blow to Green Bay’s defense while improving Devonta Freeman’s matchup. Freeman’s touch counts over his last four games are 18, 19, 17, and 22. He’s a workmanlike RB2 bet.

Huntley’s 2021 target distribution: Mark Andrews 19; Rashod Bateman 14; Freeman and Devin Duvernay 12; Marquise Brown 9; Sammy Watkins 6; Josh Oliver 5. … Huntley and Andrews have shown tangible on-field chemistry, connecting for team highs in completions (17), yards (184), and first-down conversions (12). Andrews’ catch rate is a near-impeccable 89.5% on throws from Huntley. … Watkins’ (knee) early exit from last week’s game paved the way for Bateman’s 7/103/0 breakout against Cleveland, although Watkins has practiced on a limited basis this week and looks likely to face Green Bay. I’m viewing Bateman as a borderline WR3/4 play with an unsafe floor versus the Pack. … Scoreless since Week 7 and held below 60 yards in four straight, Marquise Brown is a shakier WR3 option due to the probable quarterback change. The Packers are 18th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

Score Prediction: Packers 24, Ravens 17

 

 

 

 

Monday Night Football

Minnesota @ Chicago

Team Totals: Vikings 25.5, Bears 19.5

Dalvin Cook returned from his latest shoulder scare for last Thursday’s meeting with Pittsburgh, ethered the Steelers for 27/205/2 (7.6 YPC) rushing, and used Minnesota’s post-TNF “mini-bye” to wave off any lingering health concerns. Alexander Mattison (Covid) is unavailable to threaten Cook’s workload, while Chicago’s Khalil Mack-less defense has given up the NFL’s 12th-most fantasy running back points. Cook is capable of leading all NFL backs in touches and fantasy scoring in any given week. His matchup is further improved by the Bears’ losses of DLs Eddie Goldman and Mario Edwards to the Covid list. …  Six of the last eight quarterbacks to face Chicago banked top-15 fantasy weeks, including five top-nine scores. Kirk Cousins’ TD-pass projection is lessened by Adam Thielen’s (high ankle) ongoing absence, yet Cousins ranks eighth at his position in per-game fantasy scoring and has earned fringe QB1/2 valuation here.

Justin Jefferson enters Week 15 averaging 11.8 targets over his last five games, while the Bears have surrendered the league’s fifth-most fantasy wide receiver points. Especially without Thielen, Jefferson’s ceiling is monstrous in Monday night’s plus draw. … Elevated by Thielen’s absence, K.J. Osborn banked Weeks 13-14 snap rates of 92% and 86% along with target counts of 7 and 9. Osborn is an upside WR2/3 play with Bears top CB Jaylon Johnson likely to pay most attention to Jefferson, creating fortunate pass-coverage scenarios for Osborn. … Tyler Conklin has settled into touchdown-or-bust tight end streamer territory. The Bears have allowed the league’s eighth-fewest touchdown receptions to tight ends (4).

Especially with Andy Dalton on the Covid list, Justin Fields’ leash should feel lengthened in Monday night’s home date with the Vikings, who’ve surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy QB points. In the last three games Fields played start to finish, his weekly finishes were QB9, QB10, and QB4. … This is a popup spot for David Montgomery, who’s averaged 21.7 touches over his last three games and made both Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert irrelevant. Workload bankability plus MNF’s matchup with a Vikings defense yielding the NFL’s 10th-most fantasy running back points locks in Montgomery as an RB1.

Fields’ 2021 target distribution: Darnell Mooney 58; Allen Robinson 45; Cole Kmet 43; Marquise Goodwin 23; Montgomery 14; Herbert 10; Williams 8; Jimmy Graham 7. … In addition to targets, Mooney leads the Bears in receptions (30), yards (460), TDs (2), and first-down conversions (21) on Fields’ throws. With Robinson (Covid) back on the shelf, Mooney is a high-ceiling WR2 play against a Vikings defense surrendering the NFL’s most fantasy wide receiver points. … With Goodwin (foot) sidelined, Damiere Byrd and Jakeem Grant check in as single-game DFS-tournament options. … Kmet remains scoreless over his last 18 games. He’s cleared 50 yards twice through 30 career appearances.

Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Bears 21

 

 

Seattle @ LA Rams

Team Totals: Rams 26, Seahawks 19.5

UPDATE: Due to the Rams’ Covid outbreak, this game was pushed back from Sunday to Tuesday night. The move gives Tyler Lockett a chance to test negative and return from the Covid list. Alex Collins (Covid) could also be back; we’ve reached a minute-by-minute, play-it-by-ear point across the NFL.

Even as Russell Wilson’s performance has progressively improved since a shaky initial return from his right (throwing) middle-finger injury, Wilson’s box-score results have been moderate. At age 33, running is barely a part of Wilson’s game at this stage, and Tyler Lockett’s (Covid) absence deals a major blow to his Week 15 outlook against a Rams defense yielding the NFL’s eighth fewest fantasy QB points. … Alex Collins’ placement on the Covid list further clears Rashaad Penny’s path to early-down carries, although Travis Homer’s (hamstring) expected return limits Penny’s pass-game potential; Penny drew just one target in Week 14’s eruption at Houston. I’m still riding Penny as an RB2 with RB1 upside against the Rams with a shot at 20 carries if Seattle can keep this game close. A 2018 first-round pick, Penny battled a barrage of hard-luck injuries that eviscerated the first three years of his career. At long last healthy, Penny is a legitimate homerun hitter who ran 4.46 at 220 pounds coming out of San Diego State.

Sans all-field playmaker Lockett, the Seahawks have no choice but to build their Week 15 pass offense around D.K. Metcalf, who has been incredibly unlucky of late. Over his last two games, Metcalf got tackled inside the five at the end of a 33-yard catch, lost a 23-yard touchdown on a holding call, and was missed by Wilson for a would-be score inside the ten-yard line. Jalen Ramsey (Covid) may return but hasn’t shadowed No. 1 receivers all year. … Since Freddie Swain (ankle) and Dee Eskridge (foot) are also uncertain to play, the Seahawks may be forced to turn to slowpoke slot-receiver type Penny Hart as their No. 2 receiver. They’ll surely rely more on Gerald Everett in this #RevengeGame versus his former team. Everett checks in as an opportunity-based TE1/2 streamer at Los Angeles.

UPDATE: Dee Eskridge (foot) and Freddie Swain (ankle) both practiced fully on Friday, and Tyler Lockett (Covid) has a real chance to regain availability against the Rams, rendering almost everything I wrote above irrelevant. This game’s postponement from Sunday to Tuesday also sets up Jalen Ramsey to play.

Odell Beckham’s activation from the Covid list reinforces Matthew Stafford’s high-floor outlook versus Seattle, which has yielded top-16 fantasy scores to seven of its last 11 quarterbacks faced and coughed up 9.9 yards per attempt to Stafford in Week 5. I’m treating Stafford as a solid-if-unspectacular QB1/2 bet. … Darrell Henderson is also back from the Covid list, muddying the Rams’ backfield waters. Albeit based on performance with some #AssumptionOfRationalCoaching baked in, my tentative expectation is Sony Michel will continue to operate as L.A.’s lead back with Henderson changing the pace and handling some receiving-game chores. Michel is clearly a more reliable early-down runner, while Seattle has given up the NFL’s fourth most fantasy running back points. Michel is an RB2 and Henderson a dicey flex play.

Cooper Kupp enters Week 15 averaging ten catches per game over his last five and having banked 90-plus yards in all but one appearance this year. Regardless of opposition, Kupp is in contention to finish as fantasy’s overall WR1 every single week. … Activated from the Covid list, Odell Beckham has reemerged as an every-week WR2 having hit paydirt in each of the Rams’ last three contests while quickly earning a near-every-snap role. The Seahawks have permitted the NFL’s sixth fewest fantasy wide receiver points but not because they field a shutdown secondary. Only ten teams have coughed up more yards per pass attempt than Seattle (7.3). … Like Beckham, Van Jefferson has scored a touchdown in three straight affairs. I’m valuing Jefferson as an okay-not-great WR3/flex option. … Tyler Higbee missed Week 14 due to a false-positive Covid test, then reappeared on Week 15’s Covid list due to an actually positive test. In Higbee’s last-week absence, the Rams featured third-year UDFA Kendall Blanton as their main tight end on a 90% playing-time clip, although Blanton drew only three targets against the Cardinals. Seattle has allowed the NFL’s fourth most fantasy tight end points.

Score Prediction: Rams 28, Seahawks 23