Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 5

Thursday Night Football

Chicago @ Washington

Team Totals: Commanders 25.5, Bears 18.5

Fresh off easily his year-best game in Week 4’s loss to Denver, Justin Fields visits D.C. with a healthy weapons contingent and LG Teven Jenkins (calf) making his season debut. Fields’ dynamic dual-threat capability keeps him QB1 playable, although Washington’s D/ST remains a recommended start. DC Jack Del Rio’s defense ranks sixth in the league in sacks (13), while Chicago has surrendered the NFL’s second-most quarterback takedowns (17). The Commanders have coughed up the league’s ninth-most fantasy QB points, including the NFL’s third-most rushing yards (131) to Fields’ position. … Khalil Herbert handily retook Chicago’s lead-back job in last Sunday’s defeat, out-snapping Roschon Johnson 56 to 16 and out-touching the rookie 22 to six. Johnson is just an end-of-bench roster stash at this point. Herbert is low-end RB2/flex viable at Washington having handled Weeks 1-3 touch counts of 12, eight, and nine prior to last week.

Fields’ Weeks 1-4 target distribution: D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet 24; Herbert 15; Chase Claypool 14; Johnson and Darnell Mooney 12; Tyler Scott 5; Robert Tonyan 4. … Moore has been an early-season roller coaster ride, but he leads the Bears in catches (19), yards (301), touchdowns (2), and first-down conversions (15) on throws from Fields. I’m valuing Moore as an upside WR2 play against a Washington defense permitting the NFL’s fourth-most fantasy wide receiver points. Moore ranks No. 15 in the league in Air Yards share (37%). … Kmet’s receiving line over his last 17 games is 63/677/9 (10.8 YPR). Kmet’s box-score appeal remains strongly tied to end-zone trips. The Commanders have not allowed a TD to a tight end this season. … Week 4 scratch Claypool was told by the Bears to not even bother attending the game. … Longball threat Mooney hasn’t cleared 60 yards in an individual game in nearly a full calendar year. … Equanimeous St. Brown stood in as Chicago’s Week 4 No. 3 receiver with Claypool on the shelf.

UPDATE: Bears indeed ruled out top CB Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) and top safety Eddie Jackson (foot). On Wednesday, FS Jaquan Brisker (hamstring) was added to the injury report and listed as questionable. He was apparently hurt in practice, and seems on the doubtful side of his “Q” tag. Chicago’s secondary is a M*A*S*H unit at this point; the Commanders are set up for passing-game success on Thursday night.

Dead last in the league in sacks (2) and injured in the back, the Bears offer a comfortable environment for Sam Howell, who’s been sacked a league-high 24 times. Despite his astronomical takedown rate, Howell has 17+ fantasy points in three of four starts, while Chicago is yielding over 25 FF points per game to signal-callers. This week, the Bears look likely to miss top CB Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) and top safety Eddie Jackson (foot). Nickel CB Kyler Gordon (hand) is on I.R. … Brian Robinson kept Washington’s Week 4 lead-back job, out-snapping Antonio Gibson 43 to 30 while out-touching Gibson 16 to seven against the Eagles. Gibson is playable only on one-game DFS slates. On Weeks 1-4 touch counts of 20, 20, 10, and 16, Robinson is a rock-solid RB2/flex starter as a big home favorite versus the Bears, who’ve been skewered by enemy backs for eight all-purpose touchdowns and an average of 155 total yards through four games.

Howell’s Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Terry McLaurin 26; Jahan Dotson 25; Curtis Samuel 20; Logan Thomas 14; Cole Turner 11; Gibson 10; John Bates 8; Robinson and Dyami Brown 7. … McLaurin leads the Commanders in receptions (21), yards (212), and first-down conversions (11) on Howell’s throws. He’s an upside WR2 play against Chicago’s depleted backend. … Dotson (ankle) and Samuel (quad) are dicey fantasy bets battling injuries on a short week. We may see a healthy dose of Brown, Byron Pringle, and Washington’s triumvirate of tight ends. … Thomas is a strong single-game DFS tournament starter after logging a Week 4 snap rate of 79% against Philly. Thomas is clearly Washington’s top tight end.

Score Prediction: Commanders 27, Bears 21

Jacksonville vs. Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 27.5, Jaguars 20.5

Coming off an emotional, statement home-game win over the white-hot Dolphins, the Bills cross the Atlantic to face a Jaguars team playing consecutive games in London. The Jags stayed in the U.K. this week, theoretically giving Doug Pederson’s team a leg up in terms of jet lag and body clock. … Josh Allen hung Week 4’s overall QB1 score on Dolphins DC Vic Fangio’s defense by completing 21 of 25 throws (85%) for 320 yards (13 YPA) and four TDs, adding 4/17/1 with his legs. It was 2023’s highest-scoring quarterback outing to date. Humming on offense, Buffalo enters Week 5 ranked top six in points per game (35), yards per game (391), first downs per game (23), and yards per play (5.9). Jacksonville has yielded the NFL’s 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. … James Cook is handling over 60% of Buffalo’s RB carries and converted a rare goal-line opportunity for his first rushing score of the season in Week 4. Cook still isn’t seeing third-down or 2-minute work, but he ranks No. 7 in the NFL in rushing yards (296) and is locked in as the lead back on a high-scoring attack. … Damien Harris has carry counts of 6, 5, and 7 over the last three games and is playing 35% of the Bills’ short-down-and-distance snaps while seeing four carries inside the 10. He’s a TD-or-bust single-game DFS punt. … The Bills’ preferred third-down and 2-minute back for his pass protection reliability, Latavius Murray leads the team with four carries inside the 5-yard line, converting two. Like Harris, Murray is a TD-or-bust play in single-game DFS.

Allen’s Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Stefon Diggs 39; Gabe Davis 18; Dalton Kincaid 17; Cook 14; Dawson Knox 13; Deonte Harty 12; Murray 7; Trent Sherfield 6; Khalil Shakir 3; Harris 2; Reggie Gilliam 1. … Eighth in the NFL in target share (30%) and ninth in yards per route run (2.83), Diggs is coming off a 6/120/3 flaming of Miami in which he cooked CB Kader Kohou, as the Bills masterfully worked Diggs away from Dolphins top CB Xavien Howard. Turning 30 next month, Diggs has shown no signs of slowing down as fantasy’s overall WR4 four games in. … Davis’ 17.9-yard aDOT easily leads the team, but he’s seeing just 14% of Allen’s targets as Buffalo’s distant No. 2 receiver. … For the first time in 2023, Kincaid out-snapped Knox 30 to 29 in Week 4’s win, but the rookie has still turned 17 targets into a 15/99/0 line this season. Splitting duties, Kincaid and Knox are fantasy’s TE32 and TE35 in PPR points per game. Knox is second on the team in red-zone (five) and inside-the-10 (two) targets, trailing only Diggs.

Among the NFL’s most disappointing offenses, the 2-2 Jaguars are averaging just 20 points and 2.3 red-zone trips per game, the eighth fewest inside-the-20 possessions through Week 4. … Routinely drafted as a top-eight fantasy QB this summer, Trevor Lawrence enters Week 5 as the QB22 in points per game. He’s yet to throw for 300 yards and has just two touchdown passes over his last three outings. Lawrence now catches a Buffalo defense that has allowed the league’s second-fewest fantasy quarterback points. Lawrence’s matchup is boosted by the return of LT Cam Robinson (suspension) and Buffalo’s loss of top CB Tre’Davious White (Achilles), yet I’m approaching Lawrence as a fringe QB1/2. … Travis Etienne played a season-high 85% of Week 4’s offensive snaps versus Atlanta, out-snapping rookie Tank Bigsby 56 to 8. Etienne is averaging a mediocre 3.8 YPC but is on pace for 60 catches after posting just 35/316/0 receiving in 2022. Fantasy’s overall RB22, Etienne looks like a buy-low target who possesses an every-down RB1 role in an offense that should find its stride shortly. … Bigsby has out-carried Etienne 2 to 0 inside the 5-yard line — converting both for touchdowns — but he’s otherwise been nonexistent.

Lawrence’s Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Christian Kirk 35; Evan Engram 29; Calvin Ridley 28; Etienne 16; Zay Jones 13; Jamal Agnew 6; Tim Jones 4; D’Ernest Johnson and Luke Farrell 3; Bigsby, Brenton Strange, and JaMycal Hasty 2. … With Jones (knee) sidelined, Kirk has been cooking as fantasy’s WR15 in PPR points per game across Weeks 2-4. Kirk has regained WR2 valuation. … Ridley leads all NFL wide receivers with four drops and has seen his targets decrease from 11 > 8 > 7 > 2 in four straight games, although Ridley was able to find the end zone in Week 4 against his former team despite drawing tough shadow coverage from CB A.J. Terrell. Since posting fantasy’s overall WR6 line in Week 1, Ridley has been WR58 over the last three weeks. He still leads the Jaguars with a 35% Air Yards share and is a screaming buy-low target whose drops are a likely blip on the radar. Ridley’s Week 5 spot got a big boost with Buffalo’s loss of White. … Jones is a low-floor WR5 upon return. … Engram is No. 10 among tight ends in yards per route run (1.66), while only Tyler Higbee and Dallas Goedert have run more pass routes. Engram has yet to find the end zone but is fantasy’s TE8 with at least five catches in all four games. He’s secured 25 of his 29 targets. The Bills have allowed the league’s third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but Engram’s every-down role and rapport with Lawrence should keep him glued to fantasy lineups as a surefire TE1.

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Jaguars 24

Houston @ Atlanta