Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 7

Thursday Night Football

Jacksonville @ New Orleans

Team Totals: Saints 21, Jaguars 18

Especially on a short week, signs point toward Trevor Lawrence (knee sprain) missing Thursday Night Football in favor of 2017 49ers third-round pick C.J. Beathard, who’s attempted 15 passes over the past three seasons. Playing elite pass defense to date, New Orleans has held opponents to the NFL’s second-lowest completion rate (55.9%) and fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.4) while banking the league’s second-most interceptions (8). Only seven defenses have yielded fewer fantasy quarterback points than the Saints. Even on the off chance Lawrence plays, I’d be out on him as a QB1 option. New Orleans’ D/ST is an enticing bet regardless. … Over his last five games, Travis Etienne is averaging 22.6 touches for 108 yards and 0.6 TDs. The Saints have yet to permit a single running back touchdown while holding the position to 3.5 yards per carry. Etienne’s monster weekly workloads and big-play capability keep him in high-end RB1 contention. Jaguars third-round RB Tank Bigsby is averaging a mere 3.2 touches per game.

You’re on your own throwing darts at Jaguars pass catchers should Beathard start. … Calvin Ridley drew a year-high 34% target share in Week 6’s win over the Colts but has settled in as a boom-bust WR2 with 40 yards or fewer in four of six games and 100+ yards in the other two. He’s also Jacksonville’s likeliest candidate for Saints top CB Marshon Lattimore’s shadow coverage; enemy QBs have a putrid 55.0 passer rating when targeting Lattimore this year. … Zay Jones (knee) has missed three of the Jaguars’ last four games and was listed as no practice to begin this week. … Over Jacksonville’s last five games, Christian Kirk is averaging 9.2 targets for 6.4/75.0/0.4 receiving. On the season, the Saints have yielded the NFL’s 11th-fewest catches (69), 10th-fewest yards (841), and 10th-fewest receiving TDs (5) to enemy wideouts. I’m still dialing up Kirk if Lawrence plays but fading him if Beathard starts. … Return specialist Jamal Agnew operated as the Jags’ No. 3 wideout in Jones’ Week 6 absence and would qualify as a single-game DFS sleeper should Zay sit again. … Evan Engram has seen at least seven targets in five straight games. The Saints have allowed the NFL’s fifth-fewest catches (19) and third-fewest yards (171) to tight ends.

UPDATE: Saints MLB Demario Davis (knee) appears unlikely to face the Jaguars, upgrading Evan Engram‘s matchup.

UPDATE: Saints RT Ryan Ramczyk (concussion), backup RT Landon Young (hip), and LG James Hurst (knee) all appear unlikely to play on Thursday night, while LT Trevor Penning has continued to struggle mightily, especially in pass protection. I’m all over the Jaguars’ D/ST in Week 7.

Per Josh Dubow of the Associated Press, Derek Carr enters Week 7 with his lowest passer rating (85.4) through six games since his 2014 rookie season, his fewest touchdown passes (5) six games in, and his fewest yards per dropback (5.5) at this stage of the year. Carr has cleared 300 passing yards in just three of his last 18 starts. … In three weeks since coming off suspension, Alvin Kamara has parlayed 25 touches per game into an average of 95 yards and 0.3 TDs. While his efficiency leaves lots to be desired, Kamara’s bellcow usage is encouraging. Jacksonville has conceded the NFL’s third-most running back catches (39), while Kamara ranks third at his position in receptions (23) despite missing the season’s first three games. … Rookie Kendre Miller banked 16 touches in Week 5’s 34-0 blowout win over New England — doing almost all of his damage in garbage time — then handled just three touches in last Sunday’s one-score loss to the Texans. … Jamaal Williams (hamstring) is technically eligible to come off I.R. on Thursday night. Williams’ return would render Miller irrelevant on single-game DFS tournament slates.

UPDATE: Activated off I.R. on Tuesday, we’ve received word that Jamaal Williams (hamstring) is likely to play against the Jaguars, probably as a change-of-pace complement and top backup for Alvin Kamara. Kendre Miller appears unlikely to be involved.

UPDATE: NFL Network’s Cam Wolfe reported that Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring) is unlikely to play against the Saints, upgrading Chris Olave‘s matchup.

Carr’s 2023 target distribution: Chris Olave 47; Michael Thomas 38; Rashid Shaheed 26; Kamara 25; Taysom Hill 14; Miller and Juwan Johnson 8; Foster Moreau 7. … Olave leads the Saints in catches (29), yards (368), and first-down conversions (20) on throws from Carr, while Jacksonville has permitted the NFL’s 10th-most receptions (81), fifth-most yards (1,080), and third-most touchdowns (7) to opposing wide receivers. … Albeit PPR-specific, Thomas is a high-floor WR3/flex play with 4+ receptions in all six games. … Shaheed appeared on a season-high 76% of New Orleans’ offensive snaps in Week 6’s loss to Houston and caught two deep balls, the first for a 34-yard score. He remains a low-volume playmaker with a low floor after managing receiving lines of 0/0, 3/33/0, and 2/28/0 over the Saints’ previous three games. … Week-to-week projections for Hill are an ongoing conundrum, and matchups don’t matter for New Orleans’ Swiss-army knife. In Week 6’s loss to the Texans, Hill caught seven balls while mainly operating as a slot receiver and in-line tight end. … Johnson (calf) hasn’t appeared in a game since Sept. 24. … Carr has completed all seven of his passes for 59 yards and a touchdown when targeting Moreau this year. Yet Moreau has played under 50% of the Saints’ offensive snaps in three of his four 2023 appearances.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 17, Saints 13

Cleveland @ Indianapolis