Six receivers went in the first round. It didn’t take long for Keon Coleman to have his name called after that, as the Bills made him the first pick of the second round on Friday evening. Coleman is a big-bodied receiver joining a depth chart where he can contribute right away, as Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir are the current top-two WRs on the depth chart in X. Let’s break down what this pick means for fantasy football.
KEON COLEMAN
Projection: 48.7 catches on 82.5 targets for 634.9 yards and 4.0 TDs
- Coleman is a 6-foot-3 athlete with a long highlight reel of contested catches. He outproduced Jayden Reed at Michigan State with a 29% Dominator Rating as a sophomore, but then he was out-gained yardage-wise by Johnny Wilson – a WR/TE expected to be a later pick – in games they played together in 2023. The primary concern with Coleman is that he’s not well-regarded as a separator, and we’ve seen highly drafted players with similar profiles flop in recent seasons. That’s not to say Coleman is the next N’Keal Harry, but it’s simply something he’ll have to work on in the NFL. His size and ability to win at the catch point present intriguing fantasy upside right away though.
- Coleman can play immediately for the Bills. Shakir and Samuel are no slouches, but both are a different archetype than the contested catch specialist Coleman, and the WR3 in Buffalo is Mack Hollins. Dalton Kincaid is a de facto WR and the Bills will run a lot of 2-TE sets with him and Dawson Knox, but Coleman will rotate in – and could play in 2-WR sets – from Day 1 and can be a red-zone option for one of the highest-powered offenses in football. This is a great landing spot for him, and much preferable to landing one draft slot lower in New England (before they traded to LAC).
- Buffalo became much run-heavier once Joe Brady became offensive coordinator, posting just one game with a positive Pass Rate Over Expectation over the second half of the year. The decision to trade Stefon Diggs indicates that’s what they want to do again. This Bills offense may look different than what we’re used to, but any WR tied to Josh Allen still possesses fascinating upside.
OTHER BILLS PASS-CATCHERS
- Shakir showed out in an expanded role in the latter half of 2023, and Buffalo handed Samuel a $34 million contract in free agency. With that being said, both have primarily been smaller slot guys during their careers, while Coleman is a big, physical specimen that should complement those two well. Coleman turns Hollins into a pure backup, but Shakir, Samuel, and the rookie should all play a lot.
- Kincaid looks like the alpha of this aerial attack despite the addition of Coleman. He came on strong during the second half of his rookie campaign and will look to build off that in Year 2.
- We had built in a strong probability Buffalo would add a WR, so not much changed in our projections. We think the market also knew the Bills would add someone, so this is hardly a death blow to any BUF weapon ADP.
