Recent reports indicated the Lions were shopping David Montgomery around for an early Day 3 pick, and Houston wasted little time working the phones upon learning that information. The Texans sent a fourth-round pick, a seventh-round pick, and OL Juice Scruggs to Detroit in exchange for Montgomery on Monday morning, forming an intriguing running back duo of Montgomery and Woody Marks. Meanwhile, the Lions are left with only Jacob Saylors and Sione Vaki behind Jahmyr Gibbs on the depth chart right now with free agency and the NFL Draft still to come. Let’s break this trade down from a fantasy standpoint.
DAVID MONTGOMERY
- Montgomery got 89 carries to Gibbs’ 113 during the first eight games of the year with John Morton calling plays — a 56/44 split between the two of them. Once Dan Campbell took over in early November, Montgomery saw 69 carries the rest of the season compared to 130 for Gibbs, a 65/35 ratio. Montgomery was phased out with Gibbs establishing himself as one of the most electric offensive weapons in football, and while D-Mont still scored eight rushing touchdowns as a competent short-yardage back, Detroit showed its hand in giving Gibbs the keys to the backfield.
- Montgomery turns 29 years old in June and counts for $8.4 million against the cap in 2026 and $10.2 million in 2027. That’s not insignificant money for a running back. With Joe Mixon‘s football future in question and Woody Marks plodding to 3.6 yards per carry as a rookie (along with multiple in-game injuries while attempting to shoulder a heavy load), Montgomery should immediately be the favorite for early-down duties in Houston. Simply put, Marks was ineffective on the ground in Year 1, and Montgomery lapped him in nearly every rushing metric. While going from Detroit to Houston will put a damper on his expected efficiency, D-Mont looks currently in line for a strong rushing workload.
- Unfortunately, Marks likely handles third-down snaps — he was heralded as an elite third-down back coming out of college but was perhaps unfairly thrust into a three-down role as a rookie — and the Texans only threw to running backs 13.9% of the time last year, the seventh-lowest mark in the NFL. Houston ranked second to last with a 12.6% RB target share in C.J. Stroud‘s rookie season, with a league-average 17.2% RB share sandwiched in between. In short, this is an offense that doesn’t project to throw the ball to their backs very much, and Montgomery likely won’t get the bulk of RB targets. Not an ideal combination for PPR formats.
- Montgomery also now lacks the contingent upside he had with the Lions. A Gibbs injury would have spiked D-Mont into immediate RB1 territory, whereas Marks missing time won’t catapult Montgomery’s value to the same extent. This is a clear upgrade to Montgomery’s base volume, as you can expect double-digit carries in Week 1 barring further RB additions, and he should dominate goal-line touches for a volatile Texans offense. But the contingent upside drops off. Still, on the whole, it’s a good move for Montgomery’s fantasy value, considering his late-season volume fall-off essentially meant he would’ve been purely a contingent upside play if he’d remained in Detroit for 2026.
WOODY MARKS
- Including the postseason, Marks had 229 carries as a rookie. He played five seasons of college football and never exceeded 198 carries. Marks was a potent pass catcher in college, reeling in 261 balls over five collegiate years, and he was largely regarded as a third-down back entering the pros. The Mixon saga and Nick Chubb‘s predictable ineffectiveness in his age-29 season forced Marks into a pseudo-workhorse role, but that wasn’t the expectation for him when he came into the NFL. Perhaps the acquisition of Montgomery pushes Marks back into a complementary role where he handles the bulk of pass-down work and a minority of carries. That would be a hit to his fantasy value, especially considering the Texans don’t throw to their running backs very much, but he may be best suited for a role like that after struggling as a runner as a rookie.
- We’ve also seen evidence that Houston is willing — though perhaps isn’t fully comfortable — to put Marks in a three-down role, so he still has some contingent upside if Montgomery misses time. The flip side of that is that we’ve already seen Marks in said three-down role, and it wasn’t particularly appealing from a fantasy perspective.
JAHMYR GIBBS
- The Lions will almost certainly add a running back this offseason. Montgomery leaves behind 158 carries. Many of those are replaceable and, frankly, fairly meaningless for Gibbs’ fantasy outlook, but Montgomery’s exit more importantly vacates 24 carries inside the 10-yard line and 14 inside the 5 (Gibbs had nine carries from inside the 5, for reference). Even if Detroit brings in someone to handle eight early-down carries per game, if Gibbs can secure the short-yardage role instead of being the RB2 at the goal line, this is a monster win for his fantasy value. Regardless, the Lions leaned heavily on Gibbs down the stretch last season and now parted ways with Montgomery, a clear signal they want this offense to revolve around Gibbs. We’ll have to monitor who they add at RB, but it goes without saying that this is a bump to Gibbs.
- If Gibbs makes it through the offseason with only negligible adds at running back, the sky is the limit. Underdog’s Hayden Winks noted Gibbs has averaged 25.1 half-PPR points per game in the eight games D-Mont has missed or played under 25% of snaps. If Detroit doesn’t make any real RB addition — which admittedly seems unlikely — we could be looking at a fantasy-breaking season.
