After the 1st Round of the NFL Draft, I dove deep into the fantasy outlooks of the 1st Round WRs. Below I’m taking the same approach for the WRs drafted in Round 2.
33. Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
LANDING SPOT:
Tee Higgins lands on a crowded 2020 depth chart, but one that could open up considerably in 2021 with both A.J. Green and John Ross entering the last year of their contracts (assuming the Bengals don’t exercise Ross’ 5th year option). Higgins has the potential to form a long-term tandem with Tyler Boyd and could quickly emerge as Joe Burrow’s preferred deep threat. His landing spot is bullish for his long term outlook.
POSITIVE INDICATORS:
Age. Tee Higgins will play the entire 2020 season at 21 years old. WRs who begin their rookie seasons at age 21 have out produced WRs who enter the league at 22+ and have been the best values in dynasty.
Declared Early. WRs who forgo college eligibility to enter the NFL draft have strongly out-performed WRs who stayed for their senior season, even after accounting for age.
2019 Age-Adjusted Market Share of Yards. Higgins accounted for 27% of Clemson’s receiving yards, which is a strong final season for a 20 year old.
Yards per Route Run. Higgins YPRR of 3.7 trails only CeeDee Lamb in the 2020 class. This is especially impressive in the context of his large market share.
Yards per Target. With a YPT of 13.5, Higgins is tied with Henry Ruggs for second best in the class behind Lamb. Again, this efficiency indicates that Higgins was dominating his offense due to talent rather than a lack of better options.
RED FLAGS:
Athleticism. Higgins didn’t work out at the combine but he was one of the few WRs to work out at a pro day, turning in a 4.59 40 and a 31 inch vertical. With that workout, Higgins fails at least one of Adam Levitan’s athletic thresholds, falling well below the vertical jump minimum of 35 inches. And Higgins probably would have failed the 4.6 40 threshold if he had run at the combine instead of at a more favorable pro day environment.
I’m especially concerned about Higgins’ athletic shortcomings because deep balls and contested catches were big parts of Higgins’ college game. So his poor leaping ability and mediocre speed tie directly to the areas of his game that he needs to translate to the next level.
Career Market Share of Yards. Higgins career MSY of 23% is below the level of production we’re looking for–even from a 21 year old early declare. This has been a key red flag in the profile of other Round 2 early declares like Dorial Green-Beckham, Cody Latimer, Justin Hunter and Greg Little who never lived up to their tantalizing upside. (Curtis Samuel also fits this mold, though it’s possible he eventually delivers on his promise).
Breakout age. I have seen Higgins’ breakout age listed as 18.6. This is incorrect. Using a Dominator Rating threshold of 30%, Higgins in fact never had a breakout season at Clemson (although he did come very close in 2019).
Moreover, even using a 20% threshold for Dominator Rating (which some sites prefer), Higgins didn’t break out until his Sophomore Season, when he was 19. So don’t let breakout age be a reason you target Higgins. It’s actually a weakness of his profile.
OUTLOOK:
Higgins is a boom-bust prospect. I’ve already outlined what the bust outcomes could look like with names like Green-Beckham, Latimer, Hunter and Little. But Round 2 has also produced some huge breakouts from WRs with spotty production profiles who declared early. Last year provided two examples: A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf. And this year’s WR1 in redraft and dynasty, Michael Thomas also had a career MSY below 24%. But like Higgins he declared early and was selected in the 2nd round. For that matter, Thomas was also a borderline athletic prospect in the same areas Higgins struggled with, running a 4.57 40 and jumping 35 inches at the combine.
Higgins is someone I recommend getting exposure to, but be careful about what you’re paying to acquire him.
34. Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts
LANDING SPOT:
Michael Pittman lands with a Colts team that lacks a proven secondary WR behind T.Y. Hilton–who is entering the final year of his contract and turns 31 in November. But while targets appear to be available, the quality of those targets is uncertain, with Philip Rivers looking fully spent for periods of 2019. Even if Rivers has something left, he’s only on a 1-year deal, so the long-term quality of Pittman’s QB play is very much in doubt.
Prospect Profile Summary:
I covered Pittman’s full prospect profile as one of my pre-draft sleepers, but to sum up: Pittman has alpha WR size and the TD scoring resume you want to see from a bigger WR. He’s also shown some explosive punt returning ability, which combined with his 6.96 3-cone, indicates potential for elite on-field agility for his size.
However, Pittman’s yardage production was decidedly underwhelming for a 4-year WR who will turn 23 a month into the 2020 season. He also didn’t break out early, didn’t have a strong age-adjusted final season, and wasn’t very efficient on his targets.
OUTLOOK:
Pittman’s combination of his production profile, draft position, and size creates a wide range of outcomes. On the low end, he comps to former busts like Aaron Dobson and Limas Sweed. But on the high end, he profiles as a slightly bigger version of one of last year’s most exciting breakout players, Deebo Samuel. Like Samuel, Pittman has explosive returning ability that points to upside beyond his middling efficiency and career production.
Overall, Pittman is not someone I’m prioritizing. But he still provides good upside in the 2nd round of rookie drafts.
42. Laviska Shenault, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
LANDING SPOT:
Laviska Shenault got a sneaky good landing spot in the Jaguars, who just wasted 100 targets on Leonard Fournette. Shenault, an explosive YAC producer, who saw 75% of his targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, has potential to gobble up a good chunk of those previously inefficient targets. Moreover, at 6’1″ 227 and with 7 career rushing TDs, Shenault could even steal goal line carries. After all, among RBs with at least 10 such carries, Fournette was 38th in the NFL on TDs inside the 10 yard line.
When not coming out of the backfield, Shenault lined up outside as Colorado’s “X” WR. But in the NFL, his best fit may be may out of the slot. His competition for that role is Dede Westrook, who is coming off a season where he ranked 69 of 79 WRs in Yards per Route Run. Westbrook has never finished top 50 in the predictive metric in his 3-year career.
POSITIVE INDICATORS:
Age. Shenault will begin the 2020 season at 21 years old.
Declared Early.
Career Market Share of Yards. Shenault’s 29% career MSY is the second best in the class among the early declare WRs, behind only Quez Watkins.
2019 Age-Adjusted Market Share of Yards. Shenault delivered 30% of Colorado’s receiving yards in 2019, a strong showing for a player who started his final season at 20 years old.
Breakout age. Shenault was even better 2018 however, recording 46% of Colorado’s receiving yards and 46% of their receiving TDs, easily surpassing the 30% breakout threshold at 20.2.
TD Upside. One thing to note with Shenault is that although he produced 36% of Colorado’s receiving TDs over his final two seasons, he only scored a total of 10 TDs over that span. Normally this would raise concerns that Shenault’s TD market share was inflated by low volume. But this doesn’t account for the fact Shenault picked up another 7 TDs as a rusher over his final two seasons. And in his peak 2018 season, Shenault’s 11 total TDs accounted for 34% of the scoring output of the entire offense.
Yards per Route Run. As we saw with Jalen Reagor, sometimes a player with this type of dominant market share wasn’t actually performing efficiently. But Shenault, on top of everything else, was highly efficient on his routes. In 2019 he finished 5th in YPRR out of the 16 WRs drafted in the top 3 rounds, bested by only Lamb, Higgins, Jeudy and Aiyuk.
Rushing ability. I’ve covered Shenault’s scoring prowess on the ground, but he was also impressive from a yardage standpoint. Over his final two seasons he picked up 276 rushing yards on 40 carries for a YPC of 6.9. If he doesn’t provide additional fantasy points as an NFL rusher, it will speak to an inability in his coaching staff, not Shenault.
Size. As mentioned above, Shenault is 6’1″ 227. He has more than the requisite size for rushing attempts and designed YAC receptions, and profiles as a match-up nightmare in the red zone. He likely needs time to develop as a route runner on the outside, but he has traditional alpha WR size, if he develops those skills.
RED FLAGS:
Limited Athletic Testing. We only saw Shenault run the 40 at the combine, where he put up a mediocre 4.58. He then sat out the rest of the drills in advance of a core muscle surgery (which he has since successfully recovered from). While I personally think that Shenault is more athletic than his pre-surgery 40 time indicates, we don’t have any concrete evidence of that. And since combine athleticism has been more important in evaluating RBs than WR prospects, it would be especially helpful to have measurables on a hybrid player like Shenault.
Injury History. Shenault’s biggest red flag, by far, is his injury history. Since his Sophomore season, Shenault has had surgeries on his toe, shoulder and most recently a core muscle. And his injuries are likely due in part to his physical style of play. As Dane Brugler notes, 58.1% of his receiving yards were after contact. Shenault’s physical play isn’t necessarily a negative, as it was one of the reasons he was so productive over his career, but it’s easy enough to imagine his injury issues following him to the NFL.
OUTLOOK:
Shenault is shaping up as one of my biggest targets in the 2020 class. His prospect profile and draft position make him an easy selection over fellow 2nd rounders like Pittman and Denzel Mims, who didn’t declare early and whom Shenault out-produced. But I also prefer him to Tee Higgins, whose production red flags concern me more than Shenault’s injury history. That injury history is a concern. However, even a short stretch of explosive play in 2020 is likely to improve Shenault’s value. So in my view, his injury history something to remain mindful of as a Shenault owner, rather than a reason not to to invest at all.
Shenault is often compared to Cordarrelle Patterson. And in terms of their size, likely athleticism and hybrid ability, they are actually pretty similar. But Patterson’s production profile doesn’t remotely compare to Shenault’s. Patterson managed just a 21% MSY in his only non-JUCO college season. Shenault is coming off a 30% MSY in a down year from his massive 2018 breakout. And remember, Patterson was wildly popular in dynasty after his rookie season, going ahead of Sammy Watkins (the rookie 1.01) in 2014 ADP. Shenault could quickly generate much of the same enthusiasm that gripped 2014 drafters, and is a much better bet to actually deliver on his promise. He is a priority target in the late 1st rounds of rookie drafts.
46. K.J. Hamler, WR, Denver Broncos
LANDING SPOT:
K.J. Hamler lands on a suddenly crowded Broncos depth chart with fellow top 50 pick Jerry Jeudy. Unfortunately, not only is Drew Lock unlikely to support multiple fantasy producers in 2020, he was an unwilling deep passer in 2019. Lock tied with Teddy Bridgewater for 44th in deep passing percentage last season, besting only Jimmy Garoppolo.
Can the Broncos sign Jameis Wintson already?
Prospect Profile Summary:
I covered Hamler’s profile in depth as one of my pre-draft sleepers. To sum up, Hamler is very young and an early entrant to the draft. Yet despite that, he produced 29% of Penn State’s receiving yards over his career, finishing strong in 2019 with a 31% MSY (plus 32% of Penn State’s receiving TDs).
Unfortunately, a hamstring injury kept Hamler from participating in the combine drills. So we don’t have official numbers for him. However, a recent survey of people with eyes determined that he is definitely fast.
The bigger red flag for Hamler is that he’s just 5’9″ 178 lbs, which puts him below two of Adam’s minimum thresholds. Theoretically he could be below all five–although again, he’s not. But more importantly, that type of size is likely to limit his NFL role and make him more dependent on his team’s play calling and QB play.
OUTLOOK:
Hamler’s 2nd round pedigree helps him compare to the ultimate small WR prospect… DeSean Jackson (cue eye-roll). I get it–every small WR gets compared to Jackson. But Hamler really does compare. Both WRs entered the NFL at 21 years old coming off a final MSY of 30+%. And both had very strong career MSY for early declare WRs as well. Finally, both were highly efficient kick returners on high volume.
But Jackson does remain the GOAT small WR prospect by breaking out 19 (Hamler broke out at 20), and by producing 38% of Cal’s receiving TDs over his career (compared to 28% for Hamler).
Perhaps the better upside comp for Hamler–especially now that it looks like he could be slow to emerge–is Tyler Lockett. Lockett was actually a 4-year player and was drafted a round later. But like Hamler, he was highly productive throughout his career, and was an excellent return man. And critically, Hamler is just three pounds lighter than Lockett, whereas he’s actually nine pounds heavier than Jackson was. If Hamler can add a little bit of weight, it should be within his range of outcomes to develop into more than just a pure deep threat specialist.
On the other hand, downside comps for Hamler include Paul Richardson, Tavon Austin and Tedd Ginn.
So Hamler certainly has his red flags, but his strong production profile and NFL draft position make him worthy of an early 2nd round rookie pick. When he falls to the mid-2nd (which I suspect will be very often) he becomes a priority target, and he’s an absolute steal in the late 2nd.
49. Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
LANDING SPOT:
Pre-draft, I hoped to see Claypool land with an offense that could be functional without him but that utilized him as a TD specialist once in close. The idea being that this would give him a path to production while he developed into a more well rounded WR. Assuming Ben Roethlisberger is healthy and productive in 2019, Claypool seems to have found just such a situation. And if he does show progress in 2020, he could be stepping into a much bigger role in 2021. Juju Smith-Schuster is an impending Free Agent, and Eric Ebron‘s new contract was structured to make him an easy cut in 2021. Claypool could emerge as a secondary outside WR with an Ebron-esque red zone role by his 2nd season.
Prospect Profile Summary:
I covered Claypool in greater detail here, but sum up, Claypool combines a 6’4″ 238 lb frame with elite athleticism. He was, as you might expect, a big time TD producer at Notre Dame and finished his career strong as a yardage producer as well with 32% of ND’s receiving yards in 2019 as a 21 year old.
However, Claypool’s 2019 senior season was his only NFL caliber season, which has historically been a major red flag.
OUTLOOK:
Claypool is a value in the mid-late 2nd round of rookie drafts, and it appears he should be available in that range. I prefer him to NFL 3rd round pick, Bryan Edwards who I’ve seen go ahead of him in rookie drafts. (More on Edwards here).
57. Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams
LANDING SPOT:
Van Jefferson lands with a Rams team that just traded Brandin Cooks, theoretically opening up a their WR3 job. However, Josh Reynolds has been productive in that role, and the emergence of Tyler Higbee as well as the continued presence of Gerald Everett should limit Jefferson’s rookie targets. Things could open up considerably in 2021 however, with Cooper Kupp, Reynolds and Everett currently scheduled to be Free Agents.
Prospect Profile Summary:
I haven’t covered Jefferson previously, but I’ll just cut to the chase and tell you that he has virtually nothing that I look for in a WR prospect. He’s old (24 in July), a Senior, was consistently unproductive over his entire career at both Ole Miss and Florida, and finished with an embarrassingly poor MSY for a 23 year old of just 18%.
As a rusher he recorded a fumble on only 6 career attempts. As a punt returner he was even worse. He was also inefficient on his routes and targets. I even dug into his Yards per Route Run out of the slot to see if maybe I was missing some hidden talent. No such luck–Jefferson ranked 182nd in YPRR from the slot in 2019.
That said, at 6’1″ 200, Jefferson’s size isn’t a red flag at least. And we never got a workout from him so we don’t know if he’s athletic, but we also don’t know he’s un-athletic. And also, he was a 2nd Round pick. That’s all I can muster for positives.
OUTLOOK:
Jefferson comps to numerous busts, most recently Dante Pettis, who was another head scratching pick at the time and panned out about as well as expected. But don’t ignore Jefferson on draft day. Come pretty close to ignoring him… but don’t ignore him completely. Despite his numerous red flags, there’s still value in getting a 2nd Round NFL pick at a steep discount. And Jefferson could rocket up the depth chart with departures in 2021. Jefferson should be very cheap in drafts, and so I actually expect to own a fair amount of him.
59. Denzel Mims, WR, New York Jets
LANDING SPOT:
Mims lands with on a Jets depth chart that features very little behind 2021 cut candidate Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman on a 1-year deal (his full name). If Sam Darnold can take a leap forward in a healthier age 23 season, Mims could break out quickly.
On the other hand, Darnold has been up and down as a pro and is coming off a disappointing Sophomore season. A season in which we saw former Adam Gase “pupil”, Ryan Tannehill break out for an incredible stretch run. So it’s hard to be overly optimistic about the Jets in 2020.
Nonetheless, Mims has a very real chance to enter 2021 as the top target for an emerging young QB (perhaps even under a new offensive minded head coach).
POSITIVE INDICATORS:
Athleticism. When you talk about Denzel Mims’ athleticism, you don’t talk about thresholds. Mims blows away thresholds.
His 4.38 40 is excellent at 207 pounds. His 38.5 inch vertical and 131 inch broad jump are elite. And at 6 feet 3 inches, his 6.66 3-cone induces an involuntary double take.
Breakout age. Mims first accounted for a combined 30% of Baylor’s receiving yards and TDs at age 20. His breakout age is the eighth youngest in the class, and he bests all but Justin Jeffeson and Jalen Reagor of the 12 WRs taken ahead of him. Moreover, after breaking out in 2017, Mims never dipped below a 30% DR for the remainder of his college career.
TD Upside. Given that Mims is a 6’3″ freak athlete, you’d expect him to be a double digit TD threat in the NFL. So it’s great to see that he was a TD machine in college. When Mims first emerged as a Sophomore in 2017 he put up 8 TDs–34% of Baylor’s receiving TDs. He then had 8 TDs again in 2018, for 38% of Baylor’s receiving TDs. And then he went… off. In 2019, Mims put up 12 TDs for a ridiculous 55% of Baylor’s receiving TDs.
RED FLAGS:
Age. Mims turns 23 in October. Compared to the 1st Round WRs, he’s a year and a half older than Lamb and Jeudy, 15 month older than Ruggs, Reagor and Jefferson and five months older than Aiyuk.
Declared as a Senior.
Career Market Share of Yards. Mims accounted for 26.8% of Baylor’s receiving yards over his 4 year career. His career MSY ranks 7th among the Senior WRs and he falls well short of the highly productive profile that we typically see from successful Senior prospects.
Some additional context here is that Mims was reportedly playing through a broken hand in 2018, which helps explain his poor Junior season. However, given his age and lack of an early declare, even throwing out his 2018 campaign still doesn’t remove his career MSY as a red flag.
2019 Age-Adjusted Market Share of Yards. Mims produced a 31% MSY in 2019, which is not very good for a 22 year old. That was a strong mark for K.J. Hamler in 2019. But Hamler finished his college career at age 20, not 22. Instead we’d want the type of final season that we saw from Tyler Lockett in 2015–who finished with a 41% MSY at 22 years old.
Yards per Target. Mims was decently efficient on his routes in 2019, but he wasn’t strong on his targets, with a YPT of just 9.0. Of the 12 WRs drafted ahead of him, he bested only Reagor.
OUTLOOK:
If we are generous to Mims regarding his 2018 hand injury, we can comp him to Round 2 WRs who were similar in size like Michael Gallup, Cooper Kupp, Eric Decker, Golden Tate and Greg Jennings. These WRs were very productive in college, declared as Seniors, and broke out early in the NFL. But in order to see these comps as plausible, we not only need to remove Mims’ 2018 from his resume, we need to assume that with a healthy hand, he would have been considerably more productive than he was. Moreover, even after making this adjustment he still comps to busts like Leonte Carroo and Marquise Lee in addition to the WRs above.
And when not providing Mims a break on his sub-par career yardage production, his floor looks extremely low. WRs who declared as Seniors without strong production resumes have had terrible hit rates in the NFL. This is true even if we limit our pool to WRs selected in the 2nd round, and to WRs who were also highly athletic. Since 2005, former Round 2 picks Donnie Avery, Reggie Brown, Zay Jones, Devin Smith, Mark Bradley and Dexter Jackson have zero breakout NFL seasons among them. This despite the fact that their composite athleticism is a dead ringer for Mims. Mims wowed at the combine with a 4.38 40, a 38.5 inch vert and a 6.66 3-cone. All six of these 2nd Round busts took part in these drills, averaging a 4.41 40, a 37.25 inch vert and a 6.77 3-cone. In fairness to Mims, the group measure 3 inches shorter and 11 pounds lighter on average, which is an important distinction, and thus these comps may overstate Mims’ downside risk. But regardless, it remains highly concerning that strong pre-draft workouts meant little for other Seniors previously selected in the 2nd round.
Mims does at least have one strong comp in this range: Steve Smith (the one who played for the Giants). Smith was another workout warrior (4.45 40, 38 inch vertical, 6.68 3-cone). But Smith, like Mims had an early breakout in college (age 19.7 for Smith; age 20.2 for Mims). And once again, Mims is the bigger player, with Smith coming in at 6′ 197. So this comp probably undersells Mims’ upside.
Overall, Mims is not someone I plan prioritize, but do want to get some exposure based on his target upside alone (ideally in the mid 2nd round).
