Coach Erik Spoelstra is a legend. If you’re unfamiliar, he went from being a video coordinator in 1995, and now he’s clearly the best coach in the playoffs. He’s a classic case of hard work paying off, and he has his team two wins away from a trip to the NBA Finals. Too many people just threw out his titles when LeBron was on the squad, so he’s finally going to start getting the credit he deserves from the casual, mainstream folks out there. Game 3 time.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (-3), 7:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Heat 101.5, Celtics 104.5
Injury News: Gordon Hayward (ankle) has been upgraded to questionable, Romeo Langford (groin) is out, Javonte Green (knee) is probable, Chris Silva remains out, and Andre Iguodala (back) is probable.
Heat Expected Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Celtics Expected Starters: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis
Heat Rotation Notes: Derrick Jones Jr. saw eight minutes in 3Q and 4Q after no time in first 34 minutes, Nunn out of rotation in second half (five in first half), Iguodala bumped out in the second half (seven in first half), no Kelly Olynyk overlap with Bam again.
Celtics Rotation Notes: Galaxy Brain Brad was out here with Romeo Langford and Enes Kanter in the first quarter, Smart, Jaylen and Tatum played the full fourth, Robert Williams was bumped out, Grant Williams saw five minutes at the five in 4Q, not as much Smart-Jaylen overlap (more below), Wanamaker 12-minute stint in the first half and nine in second half (14 and 10 in G1).
Stevens Quotes: We really didn’t get much from Stevens because so many of the questions were based on the Celtics arguing after the game (more below). He did say that their play isn’t about zone D, and they just need to play better. Stevens said his team was “pulled apart” in the third quarter. He said he likes the pace his team played.
Spo Quotes: He said Bam was “really assertive in the pick-and-roll and loosened up some things.” Goran Dragic said that the Heat have “mastered that zone” the Heat are throwing at the Celtics, too.
Overall Notes
*Miami got a big shot-quality advantage again. After a 54-38 potential assist edge in Game 1, they expanded it in Game 2 with a 56-35 edge without the OT frame.
*Both teams only had 10 wide-open treys each, but the Heat only made one to Boston’s five. The Heat continue to take wide-open treys away from the Celtics.
*The Celtics were vastly improved at the rim in Game 2, making 70% at the rim in Game 2 from 52.6% while also increasing their amount of shots there from 21.6% to 27.8%. Miami also really improved on efficiency at 77.3% made, but their amount of shots at the rim took a big hit.
Celtics Notes
*Gordon Hayward has a shot to play. Per The Athletic, there’s “hope” he can play in this one after going through workouts earlier this week. If he can go, he’ll have a minutes cap, and that’ll really cut into Brad Wanamaker and Grant Williams. Considering how the Celtics have neutralized Theis a bit, Boston might go to their “best five” of Hayward, Kemba, Smart, Jaylen and Tatum.
*You’ve probably heard about the Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown stuff and reportedly items being thrown, but if not… Per The Athletic, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown had a heated confrontation inside that locker room after the Game 2 loss and needed to be separated by teammates, and Smart stormed into the Celtics’ postgame locker room saying that other players needed to be held accountable and not simply point the finger toward him when things are going wrong. As Smart continued and his voice grew louder, Brown snapped back and shouted that Celtics players must stay together and that their actions must come as a team, not individually, and that Smart needed to cool off. Smart also got into it with assistants, but no physical altercations occurred. After Game 2, Brown said that Smart is “full of fire, and that’s what I love about him,” so it looks like it’s blown over. We saw Stevens go away from using Smart and Jaylen together almost exclusively with only one minute of Jaylen with no Smart in Game 1 and seven of those in Game 2. Basically, you can ignore this when it comes to making a lineup.
*We knew the Heat were going to roll with the zone, and the Celtics are really struggling with it. Shoutout to data viz legend Kirk Goldsberry here for putting up the shooting numbers against the Miami zone in 2019-20: Kemba Walker – 5/19, Jaylen Brown – 6/17, Marcus Smart – 4/16, Jayson Tatum – 4/9, Semi Ojeleye – 2/9. Stevens knew they were going to do it again, so he went for some Enes Kanter in there. It didn’t work. The Celtics really need to work on collapsing the Heat D with some extra passing to get better looks on treys.
*Kemba Walker had some really bad luck on good looks in Game 1 at 4-of-13 on uncontested shots, but he fared better going 6-of-14 in Game 2 — also 3-of-5 on contested in Game 2, 2-of-6 in Game 1. Just like in Game 1, the Celtics really didn’t lean on Kemba as a PNR scorer. If interested, I hand-tracked his shots again (feel free to skip): Made iso three on Bam, wide-open trey on broken play, missed open three off O board followed by made open two on O board, made drive on Duncan Robinson, made step-back trey on Bam, layup after stripping Duncan Robinson, missed three off late on-ball screen by Smart (on Bam), missed open pullup look on Robinson, missed open look from three on a Smart kick out, missed open three on Jaylen kick out, made pullup before Miami defense set, missed PNR drive with Theis, missed pullup three at 3Q buzzer, made stepback three on Derrick Jones Jr., missed floater on slip screen from Jaylen, missed pullup 3 on PNR with Theis, made three on bad switch with Jimmy and Duncan, missed kick-out trey from Tatum.
Again, just not a whole lot of Theis as a screener for Kemba again. That also is part of the reason Theis isn’t getting as many shots because he’s not being used as a roll man as much. He did have six screen assists, but only two shots were off PNR for him in Game 2 and one in Game 1 (hand tracked). Kemba’s diverse game should help him get some good looks as the series goes along.
*Perhaps no player saw a better shot-quality improvement than Jaylen Brown, going from 9-of-14 shots contested in Game 1 to 5-of-14 in Game 2. He wasn’t taking as many shots late in the clock in Game 2, but he still only had one fastbreak bucket (zero in Game 1). Jaylen and Smart should get decent looks again.
*The Heat really cut down on Jayson Tatum’s output, keeping him to his playoff-low 23.3 usage rate. It was his first game without a made three in the playoffs, and taking just two attempts from deep is half his previous low in the playoffs. He faced tight defense on 75% of his shots and went 0-of-3 on his open shots (defender 4-6 feet away, no wide-open shots). Jae Crowder has been tremendous when guarding Tatum at just 1-of-6 from the field (one trey, two free throws) via the matchup data. I mentioned that he’s been a little worse on forwards compared to guards, and have some data to back it up. Per the matchup data, Tatum has 113 points on a 50.6 TS% against forwards, but he’s up to 156 points on 62.0 TS% against guards — also a worse FT% against guards, so it’s a bit of a bigger edge if he made ‘em at the same clip. He does have a slightly higher usage rate if going off the partial possession data, but the Heat keeping a bigger body on Tatum has made it tougher on him. Stevens figures to use him off ball more and try to set up his offense through stagger screens and DHOs, but major credit to the Heat for keeping him limited. He’s still really, really good, so he might go off as Stevens schemes up some plays for him like how he’s done for Kemba.
Heat Notes
*Bam’s offensive game has really been more about being in the right place at the right time on cuts and with the Celtics selling out to stop drives. Just off hand tracking in the first two games, he had five shots as a roll man, three on DHO action and one that was kind of an early slip screen (more of these in Game 2). Basically, he’s been moving around early in possessions that set the tone for movement in halfcourt and he wasn’t getting initial touches for possessions, but as you can tell by his 18/6/9 and 21/10/4 lines, he can still get it done. He also had four screen assists in Game 2 after zero in Game 1, and again he’s been a potential assist machine with 13 in Game 2 and 13 in Game 1. There’s still more room for growth here.
*The Celtics took Jimmy Butler out of it a bit, and not just on the stat sheet. He only had six potential assists in Game 2 after 14 in Game 1, and Butler’s touch time dropped from six minutes to four minutes. He was also down to just 12 drives in Game 2 from 19 in Game 1. The offensive style throughout the game did set up the Heat much better in Game 2, but if the Celtics tighten up on defense again, it could be a Jimmy game.
*Again, the Herro lineup comes through. After some thought, we’re calling it The Mocha Spo lineup. In the two games, the Herro, Dragic, Jimmy, Jae and Bam lineup has a +24.9 net rating in 18 minutes in this series after they were leading the playoffs at +38.0 (min. 32 minutes). Herro and Jae are absolutely locked in on their roles.
*Goran Dragic continues to just make big plays, and game after game he’s finding great looks. He upped his points off drives to a game-high 10 in Game 2, and he upped his drives to 14 from nine in Game 1. He was uncontested on 11-of-19 shots in each of the two games. He’s been awesome.
Matchup Helps: Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown
Matchup Hurts: Heat bench guys besides Herro, Daniel Theis, Boston’s bench
