GPP Leverage: Week 6

Welcome to Week 6 Leverage! Last week, we considered how to approach a slate with one game’s Vegas total sitting well above the rest. Our historical sample was very limited, but the Week 5 results followed the observed pattern: The marquee game wasn’t necessary to win tournaments, as only Jahmyr Gibbs was a true difference maker.

This week, I want to look at a similar question involving individual players: How should we handle a player who clearly separates from the other options at his position? A unique aspect of this Week 6 slate is that Josh Allen, Bijan Robinson, Puka Nacua, and Brock Bowers each have the highest salary, largest projection, and best projected value at their respective positions. Although it’s not uncommon for the most expensive players to also have the best projections, it’s notable that those players are also the best price-adjusted values at their positions this week.

Nacua is particularly interesting because his projection sits so far above the other WRs, and he’s clearly one of the most mispriced players on the slate at $8,100. At the time of this writing, his projection is a whopping 5.3 points higher than the next-highest-projected WR, and 8.3 points higher than the third-highest option. And we’re getting that separation without paying the $9,000+ salary we have historically associated with an elite WR. To help think through how to handle that dynamic, I looked at previous slates with similar positional standouts.

The tables below show players who led their position in salary, projection, and projected value on slates with at least eight games, from 2022 through last week. To keep the tables manageable, I limited the displayed examples to players who projected at least three points above the next option at their position. The ownership columns show how often each player appeared across the field, while “Top 1% Rate” shows how often he appeared among the contest lineups that finished in the top 1%. These are actual entered lineups, so the comparison tells us how often top finishers rostered the player, rather than whether he belonged in the hindsight optimal lineup.

At QB, there are only three examples, including Jayden Daniels‘ injury game, so there isn’t much basis for a broad conclusion. Allen’s two appearances give us both sides. His 30.4 points in 2022 Week 6 put him in 39.2% of large-field top-1% lineups against 24.8% ownership, while his 12.6 points in Week 11 left him in very few top finishers.