How to Draft From Picks 5-8 in 2023 Fantasy Football

Fantasy draft season is here, which means it’s time to start researching when you want to draft certain positions and which particular players to target. Your strategy, of course, varies based on what pick you have. Today, we’ll detail how ETR believes you should draft if you have a middle pick in the first round (1.05-1.08 in a 12-team league). Let’s get into it.

For the guide on how to pick from Picks 1.01-1.04, click here.

ROUND 1 STRATEGY

As explained in the strategy article for Picks 1-4, we have the same four players atop our rankings across all formats: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey, and Austin Ekeler. If you have a middle pick in Round 1 and one of those players falls to you, we recommend quickly scooping them up.

If you don’t get one of those guys, there are still plenty of great options. We have different players ranked fifth depending on whether your league is standard, half PPR, or full PPR. In standard leagues where RBs reign supreme, Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson is hard to pass up. Atlanta had the second-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (-13.1%) of any team in the last decade in 2022. They had zero games with a positive PROE. With Arthur Smith still in town and Robinson added to the fold, the Falcons should run the ball as much as anyone in the NFL. Robinson is also a terrific receiver who had 609 receiving yards over his final two seasons at Texas, and reports from camp indicate he’s been frequently involved as a pass catcher. If you’re looking for an RB and McCaffrey and Ekeler are gone, Robinson is your best bet.

In half PPR, we have Tyreek Hill ranked fifth overall. Hill averaged an absurd 17.8 half-PPR points per game when Tua Tagovailoa played in 2022, which would have made him the WR3 in PPG behind Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson. Hill’s 29.4% seasonal target share ranked third in the league last year, and Mike McDaniel specializes in getting the ball to his playmakers in space. If Tagovailoa stays healthy, Hill has overall WR1 in his range of outcomes.

In full PPR: Kupp led all WRs in PPR points per game two years ago with a ridiculous 25.9 average and only narrowly trailed Jefferson (22.6 vs. 22.4) in 2022. He’s currently dealing with a hamstring injury, but it’s not expected to jeopardize his regular-season availability. However, that doesn’t mean the 2021 Offensive Player of the Year is risk-free. Los Angeles looks like one of the worst teams in football, as they have very few starting-caliber talents outside of Kupp, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Donald. The Rams could be in full-on tank mode by the end of the season, especially if Stafford — who has struggled with injuries dating back to last summer — doesn’t last the whole season. Kupp should come out of the gates hot with a healthy Stafford and a Charmin-soft defense forcing the Rams to throw, but betting on him for late-season production is risky for factors that are completely out of his control. Still, the upside is one of the best WR seasons of all time.

After that, Travis Kelce and Stefon Diggs are your best bets if your league offers any kind of points per reception. Kelce has been the PPR TE1 in six of the last seven seasons — only briefly dethroned by Mark Andrews in 2021 — and will dominate target share on a Chiefs team that did little to bolster their receiving corps in the offseason. Plus, he’s catching passes from arguably the best quarterback the NFL has ever seen. Diggs remains the clear WR1 in a high-powered Buffalo aerial attack and should record a high-20s target share from Josh Allen.

In standard leagues, where RBs are king, Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry are the two favorites to lead the league in rushing yards, and both should flirt with 300+ carries as long as they stay healthy. Chubb could see an uptick in targets with Kareem Hunt gone, and he’s never had a season below 5.0 yards per carry. Henry is now 29 years old and will run behind a questionable offensive line, but he’s had at least 1,500 yards in three of the past four years. The lone exception was 2021 when he had a ridiculous 937 yards in eight games before getting hurt.

Those are the players we prefer based on our projections, but it is still your team, so we can’t fault you for going in another direction if you feel strongly.

ROUND 2

As usual, the middle of the second round is jam-packed with fantastic fantasy options. Your decision in Round 2 obviously depends on who you took in Round 1, but it’s not like you’re forced to pick two different positions in the first two rounds; doubling up at RB or WR is alright. I asked ETR best ball specialist Justin Herzig which players he likes in Round 2 and whether his strategy changes based on what he did in the first round. From Herzig: