Large-Field GPP Breakdown: Mexico Open

You really just hate to see it. Coming off a weather-shortened Butterfield Bermuda Championship that had to cut R4 and ended in a playoff between Austin Smotherman and Seamus Power, we now move to the Mexico Open. DraftKings has apparently decided that the Mexico Open is nothing to get excited about by absolutely hammering the contests this week. This is likely because NBA is back and DK is holding the NFL Midseason Main Event this week, but it’s still disappointing overall.

Butterfield Bermuda — Recap

What a disappointment to end this tournament after R3, only because I had triple the field on 6/6 and was 2.5x overweight on both Austin Smotherman and Seamus Power. It was an interesting week where Ben James became the most important decision point. We continue to see these younger, high-potential players steam really hard in the fall season, mostly because the only people playing golf now are the “ball knowers.” These ball knowers often show A LACK of DFS understanding, and this is how you get flips like 40% Ben James in a lottery tournament. Just a few weeks ago, the field was dying to play Eric Cole, who has been playing well as of late. They threw all of that out the window when they saw James priced next to him, and Cole ended up coming in at one-fourth the ownership of James. Insane stuff. We have a few events left in the fall season. It’s important to remember these idiosyncrasies of the fall season. I’ll try and prepare you all as well.

Mexico Open — Preview

Well, DK really cooked us with this one. This week’s Mexico Open features a $20K-to-first lotto, which unfortunately won’t get me out of bed for the steep price of $25 per entry (141 max). I’ll actually get into my decision-making a little later as a special addition to fall-season content. Either way, the Mexico Open fits the bill for fall season — a generally boring course that usually features a lot of scoring, underscored by a weaker field with a couple of big names looking to get one event in the fall to make it look like they’re doing something.

Generally, Vidanta Vallarta has been a course for bombers. The results show that, other than an anomaly last year where Brian Campbell started a dream run by beating Aldrich Potgieter in a playoff. He famously (at least among true golf sickos) hit a tree on his drive in the playoff, only for it to bounce off a branch and into the middle of the fairway. He somehow won that hole. Here are the past four winners:

• 2025: Brian Campbell (-20) def. Aldrich Potgieter in a playoff
• 2024: Jake Knapp (-19) def. Sami Valimaki by two strokes
• 2023: Tony Finau (-24) def. Jon Rahm by three strokes
• 2022: Jon Rahm (-17) def. Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, and Brandon Wu by one stroke

So, there will be scoring here. And yes, driving distance seems to be an important metric. That being said, there’s of course the chance that it gets overplayed, especially among the “ball knower” crew that we’re playing against. No matter what, I think the key here is to stick to DFS concepts that we know work. So that means a cumulative ownership of 60-80%, given that this is a full-field event with a cut. Remember, the lotto is only 4,500 entries this week, so we can take more chances on chalk with WAY fewer people to compete with. I would probably be quite strict with a 50% minimum rule on cumulative ownership here, knowing the size of the contest. Don’t shoot yourself in the foot by getting cute when you don’t need to.

In terms of roster construction, another cookie-cutter week where most lineups are going to play one of the top three players — Wyndham Clark, Ben James, and Tom Kim. The second man in is a popular Doug Ghim. Last week, I said roster construction wasn’t that important and loaded a TON of 10/9/8/7/7/7 lineups. This week, that wouldn’t be the case. I’d be extra careful about your starting combinations, which we will talk about later.

Expected Chalk, How to Play It