Large-Field GPP Breakdown: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Three weeks played, three weeks of losses for me so far in the 2026 year of PGA DFS. I hope Sky and Sam have taken advantage of my poor performance and built an early lead in the contributor contest (they haven’t), because they know that my win in the $200 SE is inevitable. But anyways, we are on to the Waste Management Phoenix Open, aka The People’s Open, which usually is one of the best weeks of the year if you’re a fan of rowdy environments in golf. This week goes up against the Super Bowl as well, so hopefully we don’t get shit R4 contests. But you never know with good ole DraftKings. The past two weeks seem to have gone pretty well for the ETR Golf faithful, but I think we can do much better for the rest of the season. From what I hear, we just have to realize that Data Golf is actually a poor source of data for golf (who would have thought)!

Farmers Insurance – Recap

The Farmers was far from the worst I’ve ever done in the lotto and probably my best week of the year so far in 2026. Reminder — that’s not saying much, as I was down -65%. Such is life in the lotto streets, and it’s important to say here that I can only keep up this level of play because I truly go for first in these tournaments. There are way too many players in DFS who try and go up against the pros with strategies that simply do not make them different enough from the field. Your bankroll and overall goals should play into the way you build an MME set or lineup — players with larger bankrolls can get away with playing solid projections with little differentiation simply because they can handle the downswings. They are confident in the long-term, albeit potentially smaller, ROI. Here is where I believe a lot of the edge in DFS is. You just have to play like it. 

Anyways, let’s take a look at the winning lineup and its characteristics:

• The lineup featured a 9/9/8/7/7/7 build, quite typical for lineups that faded Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, and Patrick Cantlay up top. The lineup also had Chris Gotterup, who I fully faded. While he wasn’t necessarily needed in the winning lineup, it speaks to how the rest of the high-priced players performed that he was able to scratch his way in there.
• It came in at 86% cumulative ownership, which honestly kind of sucks given the field size and the size of the top prize in the lotto. Congrats to Jade and Tanner for capitalizing on their 300 lineups. 

Hopefully, we get back to a week where some weird roster constructions are winning this damn thing. I would hate to see golf become chalky and unoriginal like NFL is!

Waste Management Phoenix Open – Preview 

On to the Waste Management, which kind of acts like the PGA Tour’s pregame to the season. Held on Super Bowl weekend every year, the WM is known to be the biggest party in golf. The iconic stadium par 3 hole is one of the best in the world, and I’m sure it will be rocking with the return of Brooks Koepka to a tournament he’s won twice in his career. Held in Scottsdale, Ariz., every year at TPC Scottsdale, the WM offers up a pretty average test for the PGA Tour field. Here are the past five winners and scores of the tournament:

• 2025: Thomas Detry (-24) def. Daniel Berger and Michael Kim by seven strokes 

• 2024: Nick Taylor (-21) def. Charley Hoffman in a playoff 

• 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19) def. Nick Taylor by two strokes

• 2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) def. Patrick Cantlay in a playoff

• 2021: Brooks Koepka (-19) def. Xander Schauffele and KH Lee by one stroke

Yes, we will get some scoring at this tournament. Will it get out of hand? Probably not. It’s important to remember that everyone other than Detry last year was pretty on par with the average at this course. I, of course, wouldn’t be surprised if Scottie runs away with it, but golf is a volatile sport. 

We again are getting a $200K-to-first lotto from our friends at DraftKings, so shout-out to them for continuing to give us some great contests to start the year. I only expect this to ramp up as we approach The Players and of course The Masters. Because of the normal lotto field size and 120-player field size in the actual event, we shouldn’t need to mess around with cumulative ownership rules despite last week’s winner coming in a little bit higher. I’d rather be in the right range every week and take a long-term view of cumulative ownership versus being too reactionary. I will target the 60-80% range as usual for cumulative ownership, but I will of course have some 50s in there.